Rangers: Is Joey Gallo the most polarizing fantasy pick in 2018?

By Brad Kelly | Oct 26, 2017

ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 30: Joey Gallo /

Joey Gallo had a breakout season for the Rangers, mashing 41 HR. But, is he the most polarizing fantasy selection heading into 2018?

Built like an NFL tight end, with possibly the best raw power in the game, it is hard to miss Joey Gallo. For years, fantasy owners and the Rangers alike, have salivated at the idea of the damage that Gallo could do over the course of a full season and we happened to get a glimpse of just that in 2017.

But, could Gallo for both his good and bad, be the most polarizing pick next season?

Gallo finished the season with a .209/41 HR/80 RBI/.869 OPS line over 532 plate appearances. He led the league in average HR distance with 422 ft., and if not for some dude named Aaron Judge, he would own the longest homer of the year at 494 ft.

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There is no denying that Gallo is a terror with a bat in his hand and the power can not be ignored. For most owners, this is no surprise, as are his unsightly strikeout numbers. Gallo struck out 196 times, good for a 37% rate.

To take it a step further, he owned a league-worst 60% Contact rate, while only seeing 39% of the pitches thrown his way in the strike zone. He chased regularly, and if not for an “improved” .224 AVG in the second half, his AVG was on the interstate for much of the season.

Another interesting, yet sad aspect of Gallo’s season, was that he only notched 80 RBI. That is a lot of solo homers over the course of a season. Take, for example, the Athletics’ Khris Davis who had only two more homers than Gallo this season. Davis was able to hit two more HR, yet had 30 more RBI.

Clearly, hitting .209 will hinder his RBI totals, as will high K numbers. But, it sheds light on the upside Gallo could have if he can up his AVG, and the Rangers’ still solid lineup, gets on ahead of him at a better rate.

Gallo’s batted ball profile is intriguing as well. He posted 18% LD, 28% GB, 54% FB, 15% Soft, 39% Med, and 47% Hard contact rates His 54% FB rate ranked at the top of all MLB. The lack of LD are concerning in terms of an AVG jump, but when 30% of his FB go for homers, it is hard to be picky.

Unfortunately, Gallo fits the mold of a pull-heavy hitter. He posted a 50% Pull rate, while not cracking the 30% mark to any other part of the field. Teams shifted and even over shifted him at will as he has one of the most predictable spray charts of any hitter.

What makes Gallo so polarizing, is that fantasy owners will have to prepare for both extremes. There will be those owners that are sold on what he did last season and those owners that will refuse to take the plunge.

For a player with over 500 at-bats, Gallo only had 94 hits. Only 18 of those were for doubles, while 32 were for singles. It is hard to get singles or doubles on strictly FB, but with Gallo’s loft and launch angle, he would be hard-pressed to up his LD rate drastically next season.

But, a 5% seasonal climb is certainly doable, and over the second half, he raised that rate by 8%, up to 22%. One often overlooked aspect of Gallo’s game is that he takes his fair share of walks, he had 75 last season.

Looking at the second half still, he actually dropped his K rate by 12%, while raising his walk rate 4%. The AVG numbers are not going to show it, but Gallo improved at the plate and it could parlay itself into 2018.

Those quiet improvements will not mean that Gallo will challenge for a batting title with the Rangers. But, those small increments, maybe his AVG can rebound into the .235-.240 range, which would increase his seasonal stats tenfold.

Joey Gallo will be a mid-round selection next season. His upside is sky-high, yet the risk for the power dipping while the AVG stays near .200 mark is just as realistic. While the K numbers are not going anywhere, fantasy owners should believe in the second half adjustments and the raw power.

Next: Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Marwin Gonzalez or Chris Taylor?

A possible .235/50 HR/100 RBI/.900 OPS line is there to be had as soon as 2018.

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