Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Marwin Gonzalez or Chris Taylor?
By Gavin Tramps
Astros’ Gonzalez and the Dodgers Chris Taylor have transformed from unheralded roster-fillers to bonafide game-changers. Who are you taking next season?
Although the World Series is only two games old, it has been dramatically impacted by the Swiss Army knife of each team. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor pounced on the first pitch in the opener, sending Dallas Keuchel’s cutter into the stands. Equally emphatic was the Astros’ Marwin Gonzalez taking Dodgers closer, Kenley Jansen, deep to tie Game 2 in the ninth inning.
Pre-season, few people could have guessed that these two under-the-radar players would produce career years in the regular season and then continue the form into the postseason.
Both players are exceptional examples of why you need to be attentive in Spring Training and then be active on the waiver wire. Neither Gonzalez or Taylor were drafted in standard leagues.
Taylor impressed in Spring Training, slashing .354/.483/.500 in 22 games but failed to break camp. When he did get called up in mid-April, he started hitting from the outset, with a 310/.429/.586 slash line over his first 12 games. He still had an OPS north of 1.000 has late as May 25.
Gonzalez was in a Spring Training battle with Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White and A.J. Reed to secure the Astros’ first baseman’s job. He posted just a .608 OPS with 18 strikeouts in 23 Grapefruit League games and unsurprisingly started the season on the bench.
Gonzalez hit .204 in April but exhibited surprising power, connecting with five home runs and appeared in a list of five hitters to pick up in deep leagues when he was just 1% owned. In May, the secret was out, and he hit .382 with seven home runs. If he wasn’t on your roster in May, you were probably too late.
Chris Taylor (1B,2B,3B,SS,OF-LAD)
Don’t feel too bad if you didn’t realize that Chris Taylor was this good. The Mariners didn’t either. They flipped him to the Dodgers in exchange for pitcher Zach Lee who posted a 6.14 ERA over 27 Triple-A starts in 2016.
Before this season, in 120 big league games, Taylor had a .234/.289/.309 slash line and an OPS+ of 70, which meant he was 30% worse than a league-average player.
Fast-forward to 2017 and Chris Taylor looks like a world beater. The 27-year-old hit 21 home runs in 140 games with 85 runs, 72 RBI and .288 batting average. He also flashed impressive speed by leading the Dodgers with 17 stolen bases.
It is this ability to contribute in all five standard fantasy categories that will make the right-hander an intriguing pick on draft day next season.
Taylor’s 2017 exploits pushed him into an exclusive club of five-category contributors, as only Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and somewhat surprisingly, the Cardinals’ Tommy Pham, were the only players to surpass Taylor’s production in each of the five categories.
With Taylor’s unexpected stardom, it is easy to draw comparisons with another Dodgers’ transformation success, Justin Turner. Although Taylor will need to improve his 25% strikeout rate if he wants to emulate the consistent level that Turner has produced at over the last couple of years.
Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts has slotted Taylor in left field, center, second base, third base and shortstop. This versatility will help keep him in the lineup next season, even if he does not have a position to call his own.
It is difficult to see where Taylor will make the most appearances next year. There could be an opening at second base, but it seems likely that Logan Forsythe’s $8.5 million club option will be picked up. Los Angeles is unlikely to give up on Joc Pederson, especially given the power he displayed in Game 2 of the World Series. Star prospect Alex Verdugo is on the verge of the majors and he could be the Dodger’s next rookie hitting sensation, following in the footsteps of Corey Seager in 2016 and Cody Bellinger in 2017.
Depending on your league settings, Taylor will probably only have 2B and OF eligibility to start the season. He made eight appearances at third base and 14 at shortstop, so you will likely want to start him at second base, which looks like it will be very weak next year.
Taylor has no discernible platoon splits, with .855 OPS vs. right-handers and .837 OPS vs. lefties, and if he can continue to lead off for the Dodgers, he should be a solid fantasy contributor next season.
Marwin Gonzalez (1B,2B,3B,SS,OF-HOU)
If position eligibility in your league is set at 20 games, then Marwin Gonzalez missed out by just one appearance at third base to qualify next year at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and OF.
Despite just the 19 games at third base, Gonzalez’s multi-position eligibility will give him an under-appreciated value on draft day next season. For deep leagues, where the waiver wire is devoid of talent, or for leagues that allow daily changes, the ability to slot Gonzalez in a variety of positions will be very useful.
The Venezuelan was a career .257 hitter before this season, in 516 games spanning five years in the big leagues. His breakout was unexpected, but 2017 saw the switch-hitter launch 23 home runs, with 90 RBI, 67 runs, eight stolen bases and a batting average of .303.
With 896 runs, the Astros outscored the rest of MLB. Their potent offense included 33-homer George Springer, MVP-favorite Jose Altuve, 24-homer Carlos Correa, ever-improving Alex Bregman and the irrepressible Yuli Gurriel, but it was Gonzalez who led the team with 90 RBI.
The fact that the 28-year-old doesn’t have a position to call his own will affect his 2018 value – the Astros are stacked. Altuve, Correa and Bregman are the Houston infield for years to come. A.J. Reed destroyed Triple-A pitching for the second straight year, but he can’t shift Gurriel from first base. Springer is a fixture in center field, which leaves left, right or designated hitter for Gonzalez. These positions will be fought over between Derek Fisher, Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis and the offseason signings Houston will make to replace free agents Carlos Beltran and Cameron Maybin.
Gonzalez has terrorized right-handed pitching, with .322 AVG and .946 OPS (compared to .250 AVG and .795 OPS vs. LHP) and he recovered after a summer slump with a sensational September, hitting .363 with 1.016 OPS in the final month of the season.
There has been an obvious improvement at the plate, perhaps just a product of maturing, but Gonzalez has slashed his swinging strike rate down from 12% to 8% and is happy to take a walk if he doesn’t get the pitch he wants. The younger version pulled the ball 50% of the time in 2015 and 2016, and this ability to be less pull-reliant is helping him but the ball in play more frequently.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
The position versatility makes both players assets to have on your roster. Gonzalez has the advantage of eligibility at two extra positions to start the season, and the DH slot in the American League help his quest to find playing time.
Taylor offers more speed, and we know that stolen bases are a declining resource, but his high strikeout rate and the dislike of taking a walk are concerning for a leadoff hitter.
2017 is the first time in Taylor’s career that he has enjoyed an extended run of playing time. It looked like the long season had taken its toll when he slumped to .218 AVG in September but his 1.022 OPS over his first 10 postseason games suggests he has plenty left to give.
RBI production is too erratic to invest in, so don’t expect another 90 RBI season from Gonzalez. He is a great player but hitting towards the bottom of the Astros’ lineup hurts his contributions in the runs category.