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Astros Charlie Morton: Fantasy baseball smoke and mirrors?

By Gavin Tramps

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 28: Charlie Morton
HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 28: Charlie Morton /
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Astros Charlie Morton transformed from journeyman starter with intriguing sleeper-appeal to bonafide must-start option. What does 2018 hold in store?

Although the Houston Astros lost Game 4 of the World Series, their starter Charlie Morton was in line for the win when he departed in the seventh inning, having only allowed one run on three hits while striking out seven. For many casual baseball fans, this was the first time they had seen the revitalized Morton in action.

The right-hander entered the season surrounded by sleeper-buzz after four remarkable starts in the 2015 season with the Phillies. Although he only tossed 17.1 innings, the increased velocity made fantasy baseball players take note.

In his previous eight seasons, covering more than 875 innings, Morton had an uninspiring 4.54 ERA with an even less inspiring strikeout rate of 6.30 SO/9. In our article in April, when we called Morton one of the best-kept secrets in the game.

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This season Morton had a 3.3 WAR. If he produced eight similar years, he should be worth 26 wins. Before this resurgence, his first eight years were only worth seven wins in total, equating to less than one win per year.

The transformation while wearing Phillies’ colors was extraordinary. Morton blew batters away with a career-best 26.7% strikeout rate and a fastball more than two miles an hour faster than we were used to seeing. It was only a small sample, but the potential was exciting.

Understandably there were many disbelievers on draft day, and with an ADP of 370, Morton was not even one of the first 100 starting pitchers taken. He was drafted between the White Sox Lucas Giolito and Jaime Garcia latterly of the Yankees.

For the fantasy players who did believe in miracles (or for the attentive ones who picked Morton up off waivers), the rewards have been great, with the 33-year-old enjoying the best season of his life. He set career-highs in strikeouts (163), strikeout rate (10.0 SO/9) and his 1.193 WHIP was also a career-best.

Although injury limited Morton to less than 150 innings, he was a reliable starter when he took the ball. He threw at least five innings in every regular season start, going over 100 pitches on 10 occasions.

Assisted by the run-machine of the Astros’ offense, Morton won 56% of his starts, racking up 14 wins. He had three double-digit strikeout games, and his 3.62 ERA put him in the top-30 but could have been even better given the 3.46 FIP.

The veteran is legitimately impressive. Morton’s arsenal of fastball, sinker and curve, offer a triple threat of weapons. His curve generates an eye-watering 42% whiff rate, and the sinker is dragged along the ground at an elite rate.

Morton is a cerebral pitcher. Although he can reach back to grab an extra couple of miles per hour, he relies on the deception of his fastball and curve, which helps tempt the batter to try too much against the sinker.

Surprisingly, considering Morton will turn 34 in November, he continued to improve as the season progressed, with an uptick in strikeout rate and a drop in walk rate. Perhaps the most encouraging aspect was, despite the league having a good look at Morton in the first half of the season, the percentage of swinging strikes he got increased in the second half, while he simultaneously became one of toughest pitchers to make hard contact against.

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Morton looks a safe pick next season. His postseason exploits suggest that you will not be able to draft him at a value, and his injury history points to another season of fewer than 150 innings, but when he is healthy, expect Morton to continue this revival.

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