FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Monday October 30
Welcome to the Monday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning Main Slate tournament score nearly topped 400 as it took 393 FanDuel points to take home this five game slate. Kemba Walker went off for 62.2 FanDuel points and our boy Tim Hardaway Jr. FINALLY delivered with 55.8 FanDuel points of his own!
Over the first twelve NBA regular season slates it has taken 373.8 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.22x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first twelve NBA regular season slates it has taken 373.8 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.22x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Jrue Holiday ($7,500): The Pelicans look like the top team to target on tonight’s FanDuel NBA slate as they have the highest implied team total (117.3) which is 7 points higher than their season average while also seeing the largest pace boost of any team on tonight’s slate.
Holiday started off slow this season sharing the back court with Rajon Rondo but over the last four games as the starting PG for the Pelicans has put up 37, 34, 35 and 46 FanDuel points for an average of 38 FD points which would return 5x value at this price point.
The Magic are ranked 25th in DvP against opposing PG’s and tonight Holiday will face off with D.J. Augustin who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG on this slate? Need proof? Kemba Walker torched Augustin in this spot last night for 60+ FanDuel points and in a pace up game like this I expect Holiday to put up one of the best PG lines on the slate!
Jamal Murray ($4,700): The Nuggets point guard is the definition of a tournament play as his erratic production/playing time are the driving reason his price is deflated to this level. Murray is coming off his best game of the season against the Nets where he dropped 39.7 FD points and now has played 29+ minutes in three of his last four games. Murray has hit 6x value at this price point twice over his last three games and tonight will take on a Knicks team ranked 27th in DvP to opposing PG’s.
Tonight may be the night to pivot down off the top PG’s like Steph Curry and Damian Lillard as their match-ups with Patrick Beverley and Kyle Lowry represent two of the toughest individual match-ups a point guard can face.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
C.J. McCollum ($7,700): This one is pretty simple to me – Portland has one of the highest implied team totals on the slate and we all know that their offense centers around their back-court and as I have mentioned, Damian Lillard has one of the toughest individual match-ups against Kyle Lowry so that all leads us to McCollum.
The Raptors are ranked 15th in DvP to opposing SG’s this season and DeMar DeRozan has the second worst individual defensive rating of any SG on this slate so McCollum is my preferred way to get exposure to this game.
If you can find the additional savings to get up to DeMar DeRozan ($8,300) he has the same metrics pointing in his favor as McCollum is the third worst individual defender at the SG position and DD dropped 45+ FD points in both match-ups against Portland last season. With the match-up here a mini-game stack with both SG’s is a totally viable strategy tonight!
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,300): Do you taste that? That my friends is the sweet taste of REDEMPTION as Picks and Pivots favorite THJ finally delivered last night with 55 FanDuel points as he flashed the offensive upside we have been chasing all season long as the #2 option on the Knicks.
This match-up sets up perfectly for another big game as the Nuggets are ranked 27th in DvP to opposing SF’s so we can absolutely go back to the well here. The one caveat I will give here – ownership should spike back up considerably tonight as even as every DFS player had sworn him off, Hardaway was still 15% owned in large field GPP’s! I simply do not care – the price is WAY too low and I’ll just keep playing him and winning money once every two weeks when he has a good game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Small Forward is my least favorite position on the board tonight and one I will likely look towards the punt plays when building my roster. Wilson Chandler ($4,700) finally had the breakout game we were waiting for last night with 33.5 FanDuel points and the match-up tonight against the Knicks who are ranked 20th in DvP should set him up for another solid outing at a very reasonable price point considering his multi-category upside.
Andre Igoudala ($4,200) is an interesting GPP play tonight who will likely get overlooked but his consistent role off the Warriors bench gives him sneaky upside against the Clippers. Last season, in two games versus LAC, Iggy put up 25 FD points in each game which would give him 6x value at this price point while playing 25 minutes or so off the bench for the Dubs.
James Ennis ($4,000) seemingly becomes a default point play on every slate due to his guaranteed minutes for the Grizzlies but the reality is this is a player that has hit 5x value in three of his six games this season and 6x value in two of those contests! The Hornets are ranked 21st in DvP to opposing SF’s so this is an interesting spot if you need a punt play tonight!
With Kevin Durant the only true “elite” SF option on this slate and the fact that he only put up 40 FD points per game against the Clippers last season makes him slightly over priced for this spot and I think dropping down and mixing/matching value plays is the way to approach this slate for GPP’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward Picks:
One of the reasons I am looking to save at Small Forward is that I plan to pay up in the frontcourt, specifically with the Pelicans big men. Although I certainly cannot argue with rostering DeMarcus Cousins ($12,000) at Center, I think you can make a strategic fade here and instead stack the duo of Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis ($11,700).
The Magic are actually quite tough against centers ranking 12th in DvP as Nikola Vucevic has one of the best individual defensive ratings of any Center on the slate. Power Forward is a whole other story as the Magic rank 29th in DvP to opposing PF’s so pivoting off Boogie and loading up on The Brow is a great GPP strategy!
The Nuggets were at the core of my build yesterday against the Nets and I am going right back to the well with the Denver frontcourt as Paul Millsap ($6,600) and Nikola Jokic ($8,700) remain underpriced relative to their upside against the Knicks frontcourt.
On the surface, Kristaps Porzingis is not a player we normally want to attack but Millsap has dominated this match-up before as he logged 35, 42, 43 and 69 FanDuel points against the Knicks last season as a member of the Hawks!
Jokic meanwhile has now posted three straight double-doubles with 43+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games and my advice is to roster this guy before the price hike comes because before line he will be back at $10k!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Jrue Holiday ($7,500)
PG: Jamal Murray ($4,700)
SG: DeMar DeRozan ($8,300)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,300)
SF: Andre Igoudala ($4,200)
SF: James Ennis ($4,000)
PF: Anthony Davis ($11,700)
PF: Paul Millsap ($6,600)
C: Nikola Jokic ($8,700)
Slate Overview: Tonight’s slate is loaded with high scoring games as five of the nine contests have a game total of 215 or higher so make sure you pick and choose your exposure carefully as I expect scores will be high this evening. The Jazz, Celtics, Spurs, Hornets and Mavericks all have team totals under 100 so fading those teams is a great first step and will help you narrow down your player pool tonight!
Next: Have you Tried the Newest DFS Game?
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!