Nylon Calculus: 3-pointers add a new tool to Blake Griffin’s tool box

In Blake Griffin’s first games of the 2017-18 NBA season, he’s gone 3-of-6, 3-of-5, 2-of-7, 2-of-5, 2-of-6 from 3 (including a game-winning 3 against the Phoenix Suns), and 2-of-4. This may not sound significant, but it is for Blake. For reference, here’s the distribution of 3-point attempts in his previous 522 regular season and playoff games:

Could his first few games be an aberration in terms of 3-point attempts? Perhaps, but it seems unlikely. The more probable explanation is he worked on his 3-point shot this past offseason, and we’ll continue to see Blake shoot 3s.

This isn’t surprising; several big men have used the offseason to add a 3-point shot to their arsenal in the past few years. But is this actually a good trend? On Inside the NBA after the Clippers’ first game, Shaq and Chuck agreed Blake should stick to “punishing [his opponents] down low” rather than settling for 3s. However, the stats suggest otherwise.

I filtered for all cases of consecutive seasons since 2014-15 that fulfilled the following criteria:

• At least 800 regular season minutes played in both seasons
• 3PA / 70 possessions more than doubled from the first season to the next
• At least two 3PA / 70 possessions in the second season
• Frontcourt player (forwards and centers)

Here are the results:

Overall, the data suggests shooting more 3s (even at a mediocre percentage) leads to improved offense, as measured by Offensive Real Plus-Minus. The average change is +0.915 in ORPM. Just being a threat to hit an open 3 means opposing big men must come out to the perimeter and play defense, making it easier for teammates to score. So the bar for incorporating a 3-point shot effectively is low.

Next: Nylon -- In-game consistency in the young NBA season

RPM for 2017-18 is not available yet, but most stats suggest Blake’s offense has improved significantly:

• He’s currently shooting 41.4 percent from 3 on 5.8 attempts per game
• His true shooting percentage is up from 56.9 percent last season to 59.3 percent this season
• His Offensive Box Plus-Minus is up from 3.2 last season (previous career-high) to 6.4 this season

This also wouldn’t be the first time Blake’s improved his shot in the offseason. During his first three seasons, he only shot 61.1 percent from the free throw line. Since then, he’s shot 73.1 percent. This track record should give confidence that this start isn’t just a fluke; Blake Griffin will continue being a threat from the 3-point line this season. The added range won’t replace the offensive presence of Chris Paul, but it will certainly help the Clippers stay competitive.