Nylon Calculus: In-game consistency in the young NBA season

In game three of the new NBA season, the New Orleans Pelicans raced out to a 68-55 lead against the young Lonzo Ball-led Los Angeles Lakers. Instead of putting the game on ice, they found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter before scrapping together enough resilience to take back the game and narrowly win by a slim seven points. Fast forward two games later, in DeMarcus Cousins’ homecoming against the Sacramento Kings, the Pelicans got off to about as nightmarish a start as possible, spotting the Kings a 70-56 lead at halftime. This time though, they came off the blocks firing in the second half and rallied to win by eight.

Quarter-to-quarter inconsistency is standard fare for any NBA team, but the manner and degree of the Pelicans’ inconsistency had been particularly striking. In a topsy-turvy start to the NBA season that has seen surprise teams like the Orlando Magic look downright dominant while the Warriors flip a coin on effort level any given night, consistency can make a big difference. The best units are often those that can sustain their focus and excellence for the entire duration of a game.

So with that inspiration, I wanted to explore how teams have fared on offense and defense through the progression of their games. Splitting regulation basketball into eight uniform time blocks, I heat-mapped offensive rating, defensive rating, and pace for every team* so far this season.

Though it may not be producing the desired results, it’s apparent that young teams like the Suns, Nets, and Lakers are going to try and play as fast as possible (the top three teams in pace so far this season). Due to their proclivity for turnovers and the fact that execution in the half-court is often more difficult than transition offense for younger teams, it’s not at all unreasonable to expect that trend to continue.

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Denver meanwhile has been a shell of the free-flowing, marauding, explosive offense we saw last year. They have been playing at a relatively slow pace to start the season, and on offense have committed the dual sin of struggling to end the first half and coming out slow in the second half. Incidentally, their pattern of breaking down on both offense and defense in the latter half of the second quarter closely matches the Suns, which is never a good comparison for a team with playoff ambitions.

Utah, meanwhile, has been what most people expected them to be after losing Gordon Hayward. They’re a mediocre offensive team who has particularly found it difficult to establish their footing at the beginning of games. Of course, a stout defense that is particularly strong to start games helps ensure that their games aren’t over begore they even get a chance to begin. As the season goes on, whether the Jazz seriously threaten for a playoff spot in the West will come down to whether their offense can help out their defense.

Thankfully, the Toronto Raptors, over on the Eastern Conference side of things, are helping to maintain some semblance of normalcy as well in the early going. They’ve been perhaps the most consistently good team on both offense and defense so far (and correspondingly are top-seven in both offensive and defensive), but with losses against the Warriors and Spurs while winning against the Bulls, 76ers, and Lakers, they understand that they have yet to prove themselves a fundamentally different team from the years past, one who won’t stagnate against other great teams in the postseason.

The Pelicans’ inconsistency stems largely from the lack of support that Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have been provided this season. They’ve tended to open games playing well on both sides of the ball, but a quick look at their pace throughout a game bears out a potential fatigue red flag, as the difference in their pace of play from the first quarter to the fourth stands out like a sore thumb. However, Pelicans fans are holding out hope that their play throughout this season aligns more with the balanced and explosive display against Cleveland on Saturday night rather than the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of their first few games. Jrue Holiday rediscovering his form from last year will have a lot to do with whether that hope is rewarded.

Ultimately, while small sample size warnings are in effect, the opening stretch to the season has provided plenty of trends worth monitoring as well, especially for teams with postseason ambitions. Rotations and bench play will have a major impact on teams’ consistency through the progression of a game, determining how they perform at the margins. As Alvin Gentry showed against the Cavaliers when he played both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins to open the fourth quarter while LeBron James sat, one decisive stretch to begin a quarter can make all the difference. And in what is already shaping up to be an intense playoff battle out West, that difference could prove invaluable.

Next: Nylon Calculus Week 1 in Review: October games

Some more quick notes:

• The Timberwolves have somehow regressed on defense this year, and have been especially bad at the end of games, which has to be driving Tom Thibodeau crazy.
• “Death, taxes, and the Spurs” has been a popular phrase to illustrate the almost monotonous consistency of San Antonio. This year has been no different, as they’ve got one of the most consistent defensive units in the NBA, even without Kawhi Leonard.
• Memphis’ pace and defense proves that Grit and Grind will never die.
• Boston’s defense has been surprisingly good to open the season. Though their defensive rating in the fourth quarter isn’t great, their slow pace of play in fourth also means that their impressive second half execution on offense is enough to carry them.
• Brooklyn has been one of the most consistent teams on offense throughout a game, a credit to what Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson have been building. The Nets are validating their preseason expectations of being one of the best League Pass draws in the league.

*Stats were calculated from play-by-play data current as of the time of writing, which does not include Sunday’s slate of games. Possessions were calculated using the formula on Basketball-Reference.