FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Tuesday November 14

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Monday’s winning tournament line-ups fell just shy of 400 FanDuel points as a relatively well-balanced roster including Lou Williams (62), Tim Hardaway Jr. (53), Joel Embiid (53), Anthony Davis (48) and Jimmy Butler (48) helped take down a big time tournament on this slate!

Over the first 27 NBA regular season slates it has taken 379.1 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:

Although he is not technically a Point Guard on FanDuel, this slate begins and ends with how you plan to treat James Harden ($12,500), so let me begin with that in mind. Harden is the most expensive player on the slate by roughly $4k and with this being only a three game slate you will have to make the decision whether to eat the chalk and roster the likely highest raw point scorer on the slate or opt to fade him and go more balanced.

Kyrie Irving ($8,500) is listed as questionable but expected to play tonight against the Nets and is one of the few other stars worth paying up for on this slate. It is interesting to note that the Celtics see the largest (and only positive) pace boost on the slate but there projected total is exactly in line with their middle of the road season average so the “stack against Brooklyn” auto play is not necessarily needed here. The reality is, the Nets are still dead last in DvP this season as a team and ranked 24th against the PG this year and Kyrie put up between 41-46 FanDuel points in each of the three meetings with Brooklyn last season. As long as Irving is ready to go with his new facial mask to protect the facial fracture he sustained, I think this is a spot where he thrives just a few miles away from his hometown in West Orange NJ!

Kyle Lowry ($7,700): Lowry is in an odd spot tonight as he may get completely over-looked if Kyrie is active but would likely become the chalk PG if Irving was forced to miss the game. Lowry seems like a perfectly safe play tonight under $8k as he is locked into 30+ minutes a night and continues to rack up 30-35 FD points each night but at this point I simply do not see the upside for GPP’s based off his current usage and fantasy output.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,300): The Mavericks/Spurs game is the definition of unappealing for DFS purposes but on a three game slate we cannot afford to simply ignore it when building our rosters. DSJ is really coming into his own as the offensive leader of this Mavericks team as he has now put up 15 or more shot attempts in six straight games and has put up 7x value in two of his last three games. The match-up with the Spurs is not one I would typically look to target but on this slate, I think dropping down from Lowry to DSJ is a great way to not only save salary but target a player with more upside!

Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,800): With the news that D’Angelo Russell will be out for a few games, Dinwiddie will step in as the Nets starting point guard tonight. With Russell and Jeremy Lin off the court this season, Dinwiddie sees a mediocre 20% usage rate while putting up less than a fantasy point per minute so this is not a play you need to prioritize but rather one you can fall back on if the price point fits your roster build!

For my money tonight – I would rank the PG’s, 1)Kyrie, 2) DSJ, 3) Dinwiddie and 4) Lowry.

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:

James Harden ($12,500): The Rockets have the highest implied team total on the slate and Harden is averaging nearly 13 FanDuel points more than any other team on tonight’s short slate making him THE priority play in my opinion and honestly, without any other “must play”, I think even a large field GPP fade is a poor move. In two games against the Raptors last season, Harden put up 52 and 66 FanDuel points and I think if we played this slate 100 times he would be the highest raw point scorer on 99 of them! I see no reason to play the fade here and simply will look to lock in The Beard and find other ways to differentiate tonight!

DeMar DeRoan ($8,100): Going into this season I could probably count on one hand the number of times I rostered DD as his scoring dependent nature mixed his with normal high price made him someone I rarely used in GPP formats. This year however, DeRozan is a totally different player as he is sporting a 34% usage rate and has become the clear #1 option offensively for the Raptors.

Last season in two games against the Rockets, DeRozan put up 45.5 and 46.7 FD points and considering the high scoring nature of this game tonight, I love the idea of pairing Harden/DeRozan in all formats as two of the likely top DFS performers on the slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:

Small forward is the perfect spot to save some salary and with the injury to Normal Powell, the Raptors wings give us the opportunity for some great punt plays tonight with OG Anunoby ($3,200) and CJ Miles ($3,100) both firmly in play against the Rockets. Looking back at last game, it is worth noting that Anunoby was the one who entered the starting line-up at the start of the second half when Powell was unable to return so it would seem reasonable we see the same alignment today.

Stacking both players is an interesting GPP strategy to consider as if you look at them as one player – priced at $6.3k, locked into 35-40 minutes they would need only 38 points or 19 points each to reach GPP value! Basically you have the option of playing the two Raptors wings for the same price and likely combined minutes as someone like Harrison Barnes ($6,900) so this is a great way to save salary in order to pay up on the handful of true stars on this slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:

Al Horford ($7,800) or Clint Capela ($7,500): Picking your center is perhaps the easiest decision on the slate as Horford and Capela stand head and shoulders among the rest of your options and I see no reason to go any further than these two. Capela comes into this game on an absolute tear with 40+ FanDuel points in each of his last three games and four of his last six so all things considered I think you can roll with the hot hand and save a few hundred bucks in the process!

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,700): LMA is the guy that is going to make or break this slate for me as he is the player I feel you need to make a strong stand in either direction to go all in or fade completely. On one hand, LMA is the clear top dog at his position and the second highest per game FD point scorer behind Harden but he also finds himself in a low scoring, low pace game against a Mavericks team that limited him to 17 and 27 FD points in two games last year (both he played over 32 minutes). My gut is to take a stand here and fade LMA and instead pivot to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($7,500) who has put up between 34 and 37 FD points in each of the last four games he has played 30 or more minutes and will now be tasked with carrying the load for the Nets!

Quincy Acy ($3,100) is one of those punt value plays that we normally wouldn’t consider but on small slates becomes a critical part of our decision-making as we look to build out our roster. Acy has played 20+ minutes in three of his last four games and has exceeded 6x value in each of his last two games making him an intriguing salary saving punt for an undermanned Nets squad!

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.

More from FanSided

PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,500)

PG: Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,300)

SG: James Harden ($12,500)

SG: DeMar DeRozan ($8,100)

SF: OG Anunoby ($3,200)

SF: CJ MIles ($3,100)

PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($7,500)

PF: Quincy Acy ($3,100)

C: Clint Capela ($7,500)

Slate Overview: Tonight’s slate is going to boild down to a few key roster choices – first and foremost, what you intend to do with James Harden. You can certainly fade him and opt to go with a more balanced line-up, but looking at that build, I frankly didn’t see the upside that made the fade worth the risk. Keep an eye on the news today, specifically in Boston for Kyrie Irving and remember lock is at 7:30PM EST tonight, not 7 PM!

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis!