DraftKings NBA picks November 14: Is there any reason to fade Harden?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 14: Is there any reason to fade Harden?
We are down to just three games for our Tuesday DraftKings tournament. I drove to Denver and back for the Sunday night football game yesterday, so I didn’t have time to properly research a lineup. I threw a dart at the free entry provided by DraftKings. It didn’t end well because of Rubio.
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The money line was at strong 271.5 last night. The winning lineup was a huge 389.5 DraftKings points. He had huge value from Hardaway, Covington,and LouWill with strong games from the Sixers battery of Simmons, Embiid, and Covington.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Kyle Lowry ($7,700): Lowry has topped 30 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. In the game that he missed, Lowry played just 12minutes against the Wizards. With other offensive weapons around, Lowry doesn’t have a ton of upside, but his score in the 30’s will help you out on such a small slate.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,600): Smith picked up his third straight game of at least 6x value on Saturday, and he did it against the Thunder! The Spurs are similarly tough, but with the way Smith is playing right now 5x value seems likely. 5x value should be more than enough to cash on a slate like this.
Honorable Mention:
Terry Rozier ($5,300): The Celtics did upgrade Kyrie to questionable, so there is a chance he takes the court tonight. If he does, there are better picks than Rozier. Rozier has seen pretty solid minutes with Hayward out, but his production didn’t really go up nearly as much as it did with Irving out. If Kyrie sits, Rozier is a must play. If Irving plays, Rozier becomes a risky play with limited upside.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($4,800): Dinwiddie is way too cheap for what he is going to do with Russell out. When Russell missed a couple of games earlier this year, Dinwiddie put up over 40 DraftKings points in two of those three games. Dinwiddie should at the very least put up 7x value at this price.
Dark Horses:
Patty Mills ($4,200): Mills is starting again, but Murray still has the more significant upside. That makes Murray more attractive in GPP formats, but he could also destroy a lineup by himself. Mills provides some stability, but he has very little upside.
Yogi Ferrell ($3,800): Ferrell has been starting at shooting guard lately, which makes his matchup with the Spurs much better. Yogi had a big game against the Thunder, and has played more than 32 minutes in each of the last two games. If he starts again, Ferrell is a low risk value play.
My picks: Dinwiddie(PG); Dinwiddie(PG), Ferrell(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,300): With an absence of star power on this slate, Harden is going to be in a ton of lineups. It will also be hard to cash if you don’t play him. Only Memphis has held Harden under 50 DraftKings points, and the last time he did well against them too. The only thing stopping the Beard now is the pending return of Chris Paul, but that wont happen tonight. Harden is nearly a lock for 60, and there is potential for a lot more.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000): DeRozan is priced more on potential than actual output. He has only hit 5x value twice in the last seven games. He has a good chance of making it tonight though against a Houston team that is not that great on defense.
Honorable Mention:
Jaylen Brown ($6,700): This is a solid matchup for Brown if Irving sits out again. With Kyrie in there though, the output from any of the other guards is too volatile to trust. If you are going to roll the dice on a Celtic guard with Irving in there, make it someone with a smaller price tag than Brown.
Eric Gordon ($6,600): Gordon is a lot like Robert Covington. His price remains affordable because a lot of GPP players avoid them. All they do is consistently hit 5x value, and throw in an occasional game that spikes their ownership for one game afterwards and marginally raises their price. You can leave Gordon to me. I don’t mind. He has been very consistent with Paul out.
Dark Horses:
Wesley Matthews ($4,700): Matthews is strictly a matchup play at this point in his career. He was very good against Washington and Cleveland, two teams that allow a lot of perimeter points. The Spurs are middle of the pack with Kawhi out, so Matthews could find 6x value tonight.
Manu Ginobili ($3,600): The veteran sharpshooter has racked up 72.5 DraftKings points in his last three games. He will only play about half the game, but Manu is not a decoy. He’s going to be shooting when he is is there and is still a solid defender. He could provide great value in the low price range.
My pick: Harden(SG), Gordon(G), Matthews(UTIL); Harden(SG), Ginobili(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,400): If you don’t want to take the chance on RHJ against Boston, the good news is that you can roll with Brown or DeRozan here if you want. I don’t really have a problem using Hollis-Jefferson because he isn’t all that reliant on scoring. He is a good defensive player and good rebounder. He likely wont hit value against Boston, but he has at least 28 DraftKings points in every game that he has played 30 minutes or more this year. That’s a strong floor so long as he can stay on the court.
Marcus Smart ($6,300): As predicted, Smart had a nice game with Kyrie out. If Irving is out again, Smart is my favorite Boston play even above Rozier. However, if Irving does play, Smart stands very little chance of hitting value for this price. There are better options if Irving plays.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,100): Barnes has three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. He is going to have a hard time doing that to a solid Spurs team, but with Kawhi Leonard still out, I wouldn’t rule the possibility out completely, but I like Barnes at this price regardless.
Marcus Morris ($5,000): I’m thinking that ownership will be down on Morris after Toronto locked him down on Saturday. That’s good for us that use him tonight. The Nets wont be able to hold down Morris like Toronto did. His upside is capped because Boston still hasn’t played Morris more than 25 minutes in a game, but he produces when he is in there.
Dark Horses:
Kyle Anderson ($4,500): The Spurs love Anderson’s versatility, so his minutes are up lately. If Danny Green can’t go, Anderson will get quite a bit of run once again. Anderson has at least 5x value in each of the last three games. He should play enough to hit at least that mark again tonight.
C.J. Miles ($3,400): It’s doubtful that Norman Powell will play tonight, which should allow Miles to play at least 20 minutes again. Miles is capable of putting up points when he is in there. He has some risk, but he could easily hit 7x value if he starts in place of Powell.
My pick: Barnes(SF); Miles(F); Anderson(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,500): Aldridge continues to pick up a lot of the slack with Leonard out. Dallas isn’t all that strong in the front, especially at PF, so Aldridge could be in line for a pretty big game here. There is so much value on today’s slate that you wont have any trouble rostering both LMA and Harden if you want.
Jayson Tatum ($6,200): The rookie has definitely had some growing pains this year, but he could be in line for a nice game against Brooklyn. The Nets aren’t that good up front. Tatum is still a pretty big part of this offense despite him being so young. There is ample risk with Tatum, but what he could do to Brooklyn might just make it worth while.
Honorable Mention:
Ryan Anderson ($4,700): Anderson is basically a GPP Hail Mary that he will get hot and drop 40 DraftKings points.However, he hasn’t come close since back to back games the last weekend in October. I wouldn’t touch Anderson in cash games, but he is an all or nothing play if you are trying to take down a GPP.
Trevor Booker ($4,400): Booker was solid in his return to the court against Utah on Friday after nearly two weeks off. I would expect his minutes to be up against Boston, who could start both Horford and Baynes again. Booker is a low priced second unit star that should get value against Boston tonight.
Dark Horses:
Quincy Acy ($3,300): The Nets are still playing Acy. At this low of a price, he is an acceptable punt play. Acy plays between 20 and 25 minutes,and he has at least 5x value in four of the last five games. You shouldn’t have to go this cheap tonight, but if you do, Acy is a solid play.
Daniel Theis ($3,300): Theis worked his way into the rotation with Horford out,and remained there on Saturday. Theis wont see a lot of minutes, but the Celtics love his upside and will roll him out there when they can. If this game gets out of hand, Theis could get quite a few garbage minutes, which gives him upside over Acy if you need to go this cheap.
My pick: Booker(PF); Aldridge(PF), Anderson(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Al Horford ($7,600): The Nets’ woes on the interior are well known by avid DFS players and readers of this article. They are the worst team in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers. Horford showed no ill effects on Saturday, so he should be good to go with a dominant performance. The only thing that can prevent him getting that is a blowout win.
Clint Capela ($7,100): Capela has been very good lately, but Toronto is pretty tough on the interior. Capela likely wont score like he has been lately, but he still has a shot at value simply because of his rebounding. He should have low ownership with chalk like Horford and the fact that he is playing Toronto, but he may get enough to make it worth while.
Honorable Mention:
Pau Gasol ($6,500): Gasol abused the Bulls on Friday in a revenge game. He likely wont have the all around night that he did against the Bulls against Dallas, but Gasol is still a strong play for a double-double and over 5x value tonight.
Serge Ibaka ($5,200): The Raptors have been playing Ibaka at center more often, which really limits the minutes that Jonas Valanciunas gets. With the Raps taking on Capela, expect Ibaka to see more of a run again. He is still a strong defensive player, but Ibaka really doesn’t do anything else anymore, so he lacks upside.
Dark Horses:
Aron Baynes ($3,800): Watch the lineups here, but if Baynes starts, he is worth look. Even if he doesn’t Baynes could be a good play, but he carries far more risk since you are basically betting this game is a blowout. Come to think of it, that may not be such a crazy bet…..
Dwight Powell ($3,000): The Mavs aren’t playing Nerlens Noel, and coach Carlisle hinted that Noel is being outplayed by both Powell and Salah Mejri. Dallas doesn’t have anything invested in Noel, so until he earns his way out of the doghouse, Powell and Mejri are safer dart throws if gambling on Dallas bigs. Neither have a lot of upside, but they get value with regularity because of how much they play.
My pick: Horford(C); Horford(C)
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