FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Thursday November 16

Welcome to the Thursday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Thursday’s winning tournament line-ups went over 420 FanDuel points and the winning formula was simple – did you have Joel Embiid or not? Embiid went OFF for NINETY THREE FanDuel points – Seriously, this kid is something special. Not to be outdone, his teammate Ben Simmons went for 60.8 FanDuel points in a great example of where Vegas/match-up align and essentially scream at you to take advantage of a spot in DFS!

Over the first 29 NBA regular season slates it has taken 379.4 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:

After an amazing loaded Wednesday night slate we are stuck with only two games tonight – although they are interesting ones, I wish we would get away from these Big/Small alternating slates and have a bit more consistency with 6-7 game slates in the NBA! The games have some intrigue and I think there are enough different ways to go and FanDuel did a solid job with the pricing on this one to make you really think – the question is going to be how you want to approach your roster build.

Stephen Curry ($9,700) and Kyrie Irving ($8,300): The first game of the night features the two best teams in the NBA as the Warriors and Celtics square off which should be an exceptional basketball game to watch and one that is loaded with DFS options. This game has a mediocre total of 215 which is primarily driven by the Celtics stellar defense and slower pace of play which is shown by Golden State’s team total of 11 which is nearly 9 points lower than their season average.

Both the Celtics and Warriors are top 10 in DvP to opposing PG’s this season so the match-up on the surface is not ideal but I think this is a spot where you need to prioritize the Curry/Kyrie pairing tonight due to their safe floor and high ceiling. These choices are relatively obvious but I think the reason you are forced to go this route is because of the true lack of options at the PG position.

Chris Paul ($8,900) has the best pure match-up against the Suns but I am not paying $9k (more than Kyrie by $700) for a guy who is only playing 20 minutes. Mike James and Tyler Ulis are potential value plays but they are locked into a brutal time share and now have 20 minutes of CP3 defense to contend with? Terry Rozier will get you 20-25 minutes off the bench for the Celtics I suppose – but I think you are catching my drift here – Kyrie and Steph are the only two point guards guaranteed to play 30+ minutes on this slate so I am locking them in and I will happily let others get cute on this slate and roll the dice on these secondary options!

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:

James Harden ($12,500): The biggest question on this two game slate is how do you intend to treat The Beard at $12.5k. Harden seems like an absolute lock for 50-60 each and every night but on a two game slate with essentially no value, the return of Chris Paul (ie. the decrease in Harden’s usage) and a potential blowout concerns against Phoenix (no spread as of this writing), this seems to be the perfect spot to fade Harden and drop down to the next tier.

One of the reasons I am ok fading Harden is that you can instead pick two of a very solid mid-range with Devin Booker ($7,600), Klay Thompson ($6,800), Eric Gordon ($6,100) and Marcus Smart ($5,800).

Gordon is a very interesting GPP play as he should slide back into his bench role with the return of CP3 which actually could benefit him as he will dominate the second team usage and likely be ignored in tournaments with him being out of the starting line-up.

Booker is the priority play to me at shooting guard as there is simply no other player (outside of Harden) who gets the consistent minutes/usage/volume that Bookers does at SG each and every night. The guy is simply the entire Suns offense, he is locked into 30-35 minutes a night and has put up 22 or more shot attempts in three of his last four games – the consistency/floor is relatively safe here and the upside with Booker as we all know is tremendous so he is an ideal play in all formats on a two game slate.

Thompson feels overpriced at nearly $7k as when the Big Four is all healthy (as they are expected to be tonight), he becomes a secondary option in the Warriors offense. Tonight against an elite defense like the Celtics have, Thompson is a GPP play at best as the wing players on Boston should be able to put pressure on Klay and limit his open looks.

If you are looking for value – Nick Young ($3,300) and Patrick McCaw ($3,000) are both GPP plays as the Warriors back-up guards who should see 15-20 minutes of action. Swaggy P has flashed his upside the last few games with games of 25 and 35 FD points in his last three as a result of some hot shooting and anytime we can find a GPP punt with 7x upside we simply have to look at ways to utilize him!

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:

Kevin Durant ($10,200): As an NBA fan, I cannot wait to see how KD matches up with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight as their athleticism and length should be a fascinating spot for KD to contend with. Because the Celtics defense is so stout this year, I think it makes sense to limit your Warriors exposure to the Big Two tonight – locking in Curry and KD – and doing your best to ignore the rest. The price is certainly high and looking for 6x in this spot is probably not reasonable, but on a two game slate like this I want to get as many of the top raw point performers in my line-up as possible and KD is the clear prime plat at SF.

T.J. Warren ($7,200): For as much as I love Devin Booker, I think that myself and others around the industry tend to oversell him as the focal point of the Suns offense and we do not give Warren the credit he deserves as an elite DFS talent. The reality is, over the last two weeks, it is Warren who is leading the starters in usage with a 33% clip and 1.6 FP/M so Booker and Warren can really be seen as a priority stack on any slate they are on as they dominate the usage and output for this Suns team. Warren has elite scoring talent that gives him a relatively decent floor but it is his ability to rack up board/blocks/steals that results in his best nights from a DFS perspective as we have seen in the fact he has put up 47+ FanDuel points in three of his last seven games.

Initially my intention was to go high-low at Small Forward but the more I look at the position the more I think we need to pay up as the secondary options like Jaylen Brown (6,200) and Trevor Ariza ($6,000) feel slightly overpriced relative to their upside. You can always play it safe with a guy like Andre Igoudala ($4,000) who will play his 20-25 minutes but he is more of a last guy in play than a priority play!

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:

One of the reasons I think you can/should concentrate so much of your salary on your PG/SG/SF combination is because there is a ton of mid-tier value to be had in the front court tonight on FanDuel. As great as Draymond Green ($8,200) is, I would much rather drop down to Jayson Tatum ($5,600) who is locked into 30+ minutes a night and the price point puts him in position to deliver 6-7x value with his talent level.

One thing I do in my DFS prep each day is to join social media chat groups (whether on Facebook or Twitter) to get different DFS ideas and perspectives. One of the best ways to improve your DFS play is to open yourself up to other ideas about roster build and joining these chats may give you plays that you had not considered in your own research. Now do not get this twisted – do NOT look for others to do your research for you – do your own research and utilize these chats to challenge your concepts and maybe give you plays you never even thought to look for.

In one of these chats this week, a player brought up the impact of Nene’s injury and how it would open up playing time for a guy like Tarik Black ($3,300). Black has responded with back to back games of 16-17 minutes, putting up 18.6 and 25.4 FD points which gives him 7x upside as a result of this expanded role. With Nene doubtful for tonight, Black could be the punt play value we need to make our roster build work!

Alex Len ($4,800): As much as I think Al Horford and Clint Capela are great plays, Center is the perfect spot to save salary as the Suns could be without Tyson Chandler tonight, meaning Len will draw the start against the Rockets! From a DvP perspective, Center is actually the best spot to attack the Rockets as they rank 16th against the position and we have already seen Len post monster games as a starter with 41.1 FD points a few days ago against the Magic.

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.

More from FanSided

PG: Stephen Curry ($9,700)

PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,300)

SG: Devin Booker ($7,600)

SG: Patrick McCaw ($3,000)

SF: Kevin Durant ($10,500)

SF: TJ Warren ($7,200)

PF: Jayson Tatum ($5,600)

PF: Tarik Black ($3,300)

C: Alex Len ($4,800)

Slate Overview: On a short slate like this, the key is to find the right mix of value guys so that you can load up on as many of the top raw point scorers of the night. Looking at the slate initially, the front court looks like the spot to save and if we get more news throughout the day, I will be sure to pass it on via Twitter.

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!