This is the last FanDuel EPL column of 2017. We have a monster slate on Saturday with 14 teams to pick from as we look to finish the year in the green!
You don’t have to wait long at this time of year for the nest EPL DFS slate. Where usually we are waiting a full week we had two slates midweek and there are two more this weekend. This column is about the bumper Saturday lineup.
There are 7 games for us to pick from on FanDuel. We have turned the half way point of the year which means every team is facing another they have already played this year. Delving into those fixtures alone can help us out to find the players where lightening will strike twice.
The notable results from game week 6 for us were the 3-2 humdinger between Liverpool and Leicester; a 4-0 win for Chelsea and 2-1 win for Everton against Bournemouth. The winners of those games are in great spots again this time round with the balance tipped even further in their direction.
I break down this column into three categories: Fixtures are those you need to build your lineups around. Flyers are the gambles and the punts; cheaper or lesser known players in great positions for a break out game. Fades are those you need to avoid; I think who you choose to fade in soccer DFS is more important than in any other DFS sport.
I’ll probably be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 9:00am ET.
FanDuel EPL: Fixtures
There are two players I will have 100% exposure to on Saturday. The first is Paul Pogba (9500) whose price sits on the lower end of his spectrum. He has not scored in his last 5 games but remain the best player at Manchester United and the source of everything good they do.
The other player is Jamie Vardy (7500). I had to triple check his price this week. Anytime he dips under 9k I am interested as he is always a goal threat and not dependent on matchup. This price is insane. Add to that he is facing Liverpool. He has scored 6 goals in 7 EPL games against the Reds – his best total against any team. Earlier in the season he scored one and had a penalty saved. Give me all the Vardy this week.
Speaking of Liverpool their attack has been dominant this season, only lagging behind Man City for DFS success. The forgotten man of their quartet is Sadio Mane (9500) who has not yet hit the heights of last season. He is coming off a rest game and should be back in the side and is much better priced than his teammates who are all hitting their maximum prices.
No defender has been more consistent than Cuco Martina (6000) in the last month. His recent performances should have bumped his price up to 7k but he sits at 6k as a guarantee to make over 3x value.
For my goalkeeper I will be using David de Gea (5500) who will bounce back from his poor Burnley performance with a clean sheet and a save or two. I will also have good exposure to Kasper Schmeichel (5500) who has an elite matchup with Liverpool.
FanDuel EPL: Flyers
Burnley are currently the best team outside of the big 6. They have proved over and over again they can go out and get results. I love using their value in DFS. They have a few defensive injuries this week and so Matthew Lowton (5500) should play. However, the nod could go to Charlie Taylor (5500) instead. Either way they are my favorite DEF plays under 6k.
The Clarets don’t score too many goals but because they only play one striker up front whoever that is has a fairly decent chance of a goal. I love the value of Ashley Barnes (6000) who will be very useful if you are stacking Liverpool or Chelsea players.
There is a handful of bargain basement players this week at the DEF position who have very appealing matchups. Aleksandar Dragovic (4500) will get his second start of the season against Liverpool who keep defenders very busy.
Matt Targett (4500) is up against Manchester United and will play with Soares and Bertrand struggling with injuries. He has 18+ points in both his two starts. That is decent for any defender, let alone at his bargain price.
Finally Thomas Edwards (4500) has met good value in his last two starts and will stand in for Eric Pieters who had 15 FanDuel points when Stoke faced Chelsea in September. I will be using him in lines where I stack expensive forwards.
FanDuel EPL: Fades
Unusually there is no player or matchup I have huge red flags over. I can see every big team getting their win and the more even matchups being good games with goals. Even Swansea who are the worst team in the league have a tempting matchup with Watford who have let in more goals at hoe than anyone.
One thing I will certainly be doing on this slate is not paying up for defenders. My limit will be 6k. I can see upside for those players who are over that limit but I can get my value with cheaper plays. There are so many midfielders I like I cannot justify spending over 7k on Marcos Alonso (7500) or Cesar Azipilcueta (7000).
One tactic I often use is to stack two teams together; a top team with a good matchup and a lesser team who will be under owned. One team I will be avoiding to use in stacks on this slate is Bournemouth. The Cherries have sunk into the relegation zone and have lost Jermain Defoe to injury. They are facing a resurgent Everton and I don’t like their chances on Saturday.
I also wouldn’t put much faith in Huddersfield’s ability to get anything from their match with Burnley. Aaron Mooy (9000) is pretty consistent DFS option but I don’t see the upside on this slate to justify a 9k price.
FanDuel EPL: Lineups
Note: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
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Lineup 1:
FWD: Vardy – Leicester
FWD: Richarlison – Watford
MID: Pogba – Man Utd
MlD: Mane – Liverpool
MID: Ndidi – Leicester
DEF: Martina – Everton
DEF: Lowton – Burnley
GK: De Gea – Man Utd
Lineup 2:
FWD: Lukaku – Man Utd
FWD: Vardy – Leicester
MID: Pogba – Man Utd
MlD: Lingard – Man Utd
MID: Mane – Liverpool
DEF: Dragovic – Leicester
DEF: Targett – Southampton
GK: Schmeichel – Leicester