Requiem for the Spurs: An era of uncertainty begins?
The end of a 21st consecutive playoff run for San Antonio is upon us as the Golden State Warriors have easily dispatched the proud, yet short-handed Spurs once more. Given the drama surrounding star player Kawhi Leonard and a cap sheet that grows uglier by the day, the future in San Antonio seems uncharacteristically precarious. San Antonio has (kind of) been here before. We’ve all pronounced the Spurs dead at some point during their awe-inspiring run of excellence over the past two decades.
Three flashpoints in particular stand out as potential crisis moments that could have shattered the foundations of the Spurs dynasty, but didn’t. The first came during the 2010 Playoffs as Steve Nash’s Phoenix Suns finally bested the Spurs, sweeping the four-time champs in round one. The era of San Antonio’s dominance and the mystique that sprung forth from it seemed irreparably damaged. Tim Duncan and Manu were getting into their mid-thirties and the team was rapidly aging out of championship contention. The 50-32 Spurs simply had the feel of a team that was over the hill.
By March 2011 the concerns about the aging Spurs core seemed foolish. The 2011 Spurs blitzed the NBA, reaching a ridiculous 51-11 at their apex. Does anyone remember this? I certainly didn’t. That’s a record that only the 2016 Spurs and the 2016 and 2017 Warriors have matched this decade. The Spurs finished with 62 wins in 2011. Although they lost to the upstart Grit-n-Grind Grizzlies in a tough round one series, it was clear that the franchise was not done competing just yet. Even more importantly however, the 2011 season marked beginning of San Antonio’s stylistic transformation. Coach Popovich’s motion offense took years to perfect, but the “beautiful game” Spurs were just entering our lives back in 2011.
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The next fork in the road moment for the Spurs franchise came after its gutting loss to Miami in the 2013 Finals. Once again many of us thought no team could come back from letting the title slip away after being mere seconds away from winning it (especially a team relying on so many players above age 35). How very wrong we were. San Antonio came back with a vengeance in 2014. The season was one of the crowning moments in Spurs franchise history. They dominated the league from start to finish, achieving a level of team basketball that only Golden State has reached since. San Antonio’s obliteration of Miami in the 2014 Finals was truly one of the most incredible NBA moments of this century. That season will forever live on in this masterpiece of a highlight reel:
The last flash point moment for San Antonio came after Oklahoma City went supernova and eliminated the 67-win Spurs in 2016. With Tim Duncan retiring, a number of questions arose about the team’s ability to legitimately contend moving forward. Could Kawhi handle the burden of being the team’s best player and the face of a franchise? Would Ginobili retire and would Tony Parker ever be the same after a wildly erratic performance in the playoffs?
The Spurs rendered these questions ridiculous of course. They ripped off a 61-win regular season in 2016-2017 and Kawhi Leonard was a legit MVP candidate. He exerted his will on the game at both ends of the floor, becoming perhaps the best isolation scorer in the NBA not named James Harden. And even more remarkably, the Spurs pounced on the juggernaut Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Finals. They looked like world beaters, building a 26-point lead before Zaza Pachulia injured Kawhi Leonard, effectively ending the series.
There’s one fairly obvious lesson that we can glean from all the obstacles that San Antonio overcame: never ever write off the Spurs, no matter what. They’ve demonstrated a consistent ability to adapt better than any other franchise in the NBA. The culture and familial environment that the Spurs have cultivated are at the heart of all of this. Tim Duncan and the other stars bought in. They trusted Pop, held each other accountable and inspired the other players to follow suit.
And so, we’ve arrived at another crossroads in 2018. As noted above, we have years of evidence demonstrating that San Antonio will be just fine. But I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to suggest that this debacle could severely damage the edifice that has sustained San Antonio for so long. This situation has the potential to keep the Spurs out of serious title contention for the foreseeable future.
While the disconnect between Leonard and the team looked more like smoke than fire a few months back, his future in San Antonio is legitimately dubious at this point. Reports suggest that Leonard isn’t consistently communicating with the team. Coach Pop and Tony Parker have taken direct and peripheral shots at Leonard’s decision not to play in the postseason.
Discord between a team and its star player is always concerning, albeit fairly common; we’ve seen guys come back into the fold after or expressing unhappiness or demanding trades. But this is just something we haven’t witnessed in San Antonio. The whole situation is just so un-Spursy. And we’ve received no indication that matters will improve any time soon. The two parties may be locked in a staring contest regarding a potential super-max extension for Leonard. That’s just speculation at this point though. The root of the internal strife is not public knowledge.
If Leonard commits to leaving, a trade might signal the end of the Spurs franchise as we know it. A perennial contender, a powerhouse of player development and the cream of the NBA’s crop in terms of front office management could take years to recover from such a blow. Of course, much of that would depend on the package that the Spurs receive in return for Leonard. Getting commensurate trade value for a player of Kawhi’s caliber is rare. We saw the Pacers alter the course of their franchise nabbing Victor Oladipo in return for Paul George last summer. But the George trade is generally the exception rather than the rule. And that trade was skewered and laughed when it occurred; trading a superstar is always a brutally tough decision.
Beyond potentially moving on from Leonard, the Spurs are in a dicey cap situation. Re-signing Pau Gasol and Patty Mills and extending LaMarcus Aldridge is going to eat up much of their future flexibility. Tony Parker will have a huge cap hold this summer and Rudy Gay and Danny Green will make decisions regarding their player options. In any case, the organization’s ability to substantially alter this roster is limited. And if the Spurs were to create max space, what star would be willing to join them? The only All-NBA caliber guy has gone to San Antonio in free agency in the recent past is LaMarcus Aldridge.
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And finally, there is the uncertainty surrounding the future of Gregg Popovich, the most instrumental figure in the rise of the organization alongside Tim Duncan and R.C. Buford. Given the tragic passing of his wife Erin this past week, Coach Pop may consider retirement. That is also pure speculation on my part of course. But life is bigger than basketball and Pop has earned the right to leave on his own terms. If he does decide to call it a career, that would be one more massive variable for the Spurs to solve.
The end of this season just feels different for San Antonio. Of all the crises the Spurs have faced this decade, real or manufactured by the media, this moment seems like the most serious. We’ve never seen their future look quite so tenuous. We know the Spurs are the team that is best equipped to get through this kind of situation. But even the vaunted Spurs infrastructure may not be enough to successfully navigate the uncharted waters that lie ahead.