Can Justify win the Triple Crown?

After coming through under the highest pressure in the Kentucky Derby, can Justify keep it going and sweep?

Justify was considered the likely Derby favorite for most of the year, following an extremely impressive debut, and the follow ups to it. He broke a legitimately generations’ old rule of horse racing: Derby winners have to race as two-year-olds. The last horse who won the Derby without racing at two was Apollo, way back in 1882. The 136-year drought since then generated the so-called “curse of Apollo.”

But, as always, curses like that are made to be broken. There were two horses in the 2018 Kentucky Derby field who had the potential to break the curse, and they had polar opposite results. The two horses were Justify and Magnum Moon, and those two basically bookended the field, finishing first and nineteenth respectively (out of 20).

Quickly following Justify’s Derby win, the speculation machine got rolling: Can Justify own the Triple Crown? That is, perhaps, the wrong question. Of course, Justify could win the Triple Crown. He already succeeded on the biggest stage in racing, and hasn’t shown that much of a weakness at this point. Really, he hasn’t raced enough to show that much of a weakness. Justify made his debut in February this year, and the Kentucky Derby was only his fourth overall start.

The bigger question — will he win the Triple Crown? — has a different answer. Purely based on historical precedence, the answer to that one is probably not. In the more than 100 years that the Triple Crown has been run — officially or unofficially — only 12 horses have won. So Justify has a chance, and it’s just as good a chance as any previous Derby winner. This year, he is the only one with any chance at all.

The one thing that will change between the Derby and the Preakness which might affect Justify substantially is the track. The surface at Churchill Downs was recorded as fast in the morning before the races began. But then the clouds open upend the rain came down. The track was downgraded to muddy and then to sloppy before the Derby began. Justify was one of the horses in the field who had proven that he could win in mud. He was already the favorite, but several of his challengers may have been compromised by the conditions of the track.

That’s not to take anything away from Justify, who had an undeniably impressive race, holding on to win after sitting right off a surprisingly fast pace early on. The pace slowed considerably after that, with the final time of 2:04 and change not surprising given the surface. And he has shown he can win on a fast track as well. That he was the favorite when the track was fast, and remained so after it was downgraded speaks well for his perceived speed on any track. So he certainly could win the Triple Crown, but it’s way too early to predict that he will.

Next: Who are all the Triple Crown winners?

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