Why Terrance Ferguson’s development is so important to the Thunder

Now that the question of whether Paul George will return to the Thunder has been resolved and now that it seems certain that Carmelo Anthony will no longer be in Oklahoma City next season, the two biggest questions facing the team this offseason have been answered. That means it is time for Thunder fans to start looking ahead to the upcoming season. Some have maligned the Thunder’s moves for keeping them a tier or two below that of a championship contending team, but having George and Westbrook locked in place gives the team a higher floor than most, all but guaranteeing them a spot in the playoffs for the foreseeable future.

However, the team has limited flexibility. Considering they will likely be in the playoffs the next few seasons, they will pick lower in the draft and not be able to select any blue chip prospects in the lottery. Also, with the huge money they already have allocated to Westbrook, George, and Steven Adams, the only free agents they will be able to sign will be players willing to take the minimum or mid-level exception, meaning the only players available to them will be prospects, middling role players or veterans past their prime. This means building from within is their only real chance at significant improvement, which makes Terrance Ferguson — their most recent first round draft pick from 2017 — a very important player for the team moving forward.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Ferguson at this point. In his rookie season, he only played 763 minutes over 61 games, averaging 3 points and less than one rebound per game. Ferguson did little more offensively than stand in the corner and wait for kick-out passes allowing him to shoot open 3s. And despite being a below average 3-point shooter — making 33 percent for the season — over 60 percent of his shots last year came from downtown, taking only 49 2-pointers all year. On a positive note, though, Ferguson did convert 60 percent of those shots, including a stellar 71 percent in the restricted area.

In three games at Vegas Summer League, Ferguson did not look like as promising as Oklahoma City fans would have hoped. He averaged under 6 points per game on 23 percent shooting overall, while converting just 2-of-14 from 3. Thunder Coach Billy Donovan is not particularly worried about this, though, who saw growth in Ferguson’s play after watching him from courtside, complimenting Ferguson for his defensive skills along with his knack for “making the right basketball plays.”

If Ferguson can continue to make the right basketball plays in the upcoming season, developing as a playmaker, that would be a major boon for a team that relies so much on the creative abilities of Russell Westbrook, a team whose entire system, or lack thereof, revolves around his talents and his whims. The newly re-signed Paul George will take on most of the secondary ball-handing, along with back up point guard Raymond Felton, but the Thunder could use more playmakers, more creators, allowing their stars to play off the ball more, and find shots more organically, no longer forced to do everything themselves.

Furthermore, if Ferguson could fulfill his potential as a defender — combining his athleticism and length with a learned feel for defensive positioning — it would make the Thunder even more imposing on that end. Already, with the return of Andre Roberson, Steven Adams, and Paul George, along with the addition of Nerlens Noel off the bench, the Thunder project to have an even better defense than last year when they finished ninth in the league in defensive rating.

With the near-certain departure of Carmelo Anthony, there will be a number of shots and minutes available to Ferguson that were not during his rookie season. That, along with the Thunder’s desperation for bench production, means that Ferguson will likely be thrown into the fire a bit more this season, forced to prove himself on a nightly basis. Whether he will be able to rise to the challenge or not is impossible to say at this point, but his relative success will have a definite impact on the Thunder’s ceiling in the coming years.

Next: Restricted free agency market drives up price on risky players

The Thunder knew they were drafting a raw prospect when they selected Ferguson 21st overall in the 2017 Draft, but unfortunately, considering their timeline, they do not have the luxury of waiting years for him to blossom into his best self. However, considering the nature of their team and their financial situation, they also do not have the luxury of looking elsewhere for production off the bench. Luckily for both him and the franchise, the Thunder do not need a ton from him this season, but they do need more than last season. All Ferguson needs to do for this season to be a success is to provide a good 15,-20 minutes off the bench per game, offering good shooting, reliable defense, and occasional playmaking. That seems eminently doable, and if it indeed is, it would be a huge boon to an Oklahoma City team that often struggled last season without its two stars on the floor.