Restricted free agency market drives up price on risky players

During the second weekend of NBA free agency, we saw the teams with money to spend secure their top priorities by overpaying by guaranteeing multiple years, a few extra million dollars or both.

While the league overtook the gambling capital of America this weekend for the Las Vegas Summer League, NBA teams also bet on questionable long-term contracts for the few free agents left in limbo.

But by the time LeBron James’ decision and the Lakers’ ensuing spending spree took over the league, the best players left on the market were restricted free agents whose market had seemingly disappeared.

Instead of playing hardball, teams forecasted a competitive 2019 free agent market, with more teams potentially having cap space than in either of the last two summers, and decided to lock in their youngsters long-term.

The players I will focus on in this space are the NBA’s neophytes. The majority are coming off of their rookie deals — meaning most are restricted free agents. They are the players who will be foundational, mostly cheap pieces for championship contenders over the next several years. A contender is of course not built in a single summer, but by monitoring the momentum of each move along the way, the final product can be put into much clearer focus.

Kyle Anderson — 24 years old — Restricted FA
Agreed to offer sheet with Memphis Grizzlies for four-years, $37.5 million

During the glee of the second night of the Las Vegas Summer League, the Grizzlies, thought to be down and out of this round of free agency after overspending in each of the last two summers, tossed out their mid-level exception to Anderson in hopes of prying him free from San Antonio to be their starting small forward.

It worked — the Spurs will reportedly not match, allowing Anderson to join the Grizzlies.

The Spurs, despite having developed Anderson from a late-first-round punchline into a versatile and formidable wing, scurried away from the challenge of cramming Anderson’s big pay raise onto their books the next four seasons. From the Spurs’ point of view, they can’t know what type of team theirs will be past next season. They have organized their salary situation to fit neatly around what is perceived to be coach Gregg Popovich’s final year, the 2019-20 season.

Anderson will be 28 by the end of his new deal, and may be slightly overpaid (at least in this market), but he’s a good player. Memphis had no other great option to start at the 3 for them, with Chandler Parsons’ health still a mercurial red flag and Dillon Brooks better suited for a backup combo wing role.

This deal will age well as teams start to re-enter the market with cash to spend in 2019 and 2020.

Dante Exum — 22 years old — Restricted FA
Agreed to return to Utah Jazz for three years, $33 million

Keep working with players, creating opportunities for them to succeed, and you will be able to make up for loss. Four frustrating seasons into Exum’s career — which included missing the entire 2015-16 season — the Jazz have a solid player on their hands.

Exum leapt back into the rotation in last year’s playoffs and looked right at home against the small ball style the league’s best teams played. He defended James Harden as well as anyone all year, and looks like he could form a dynamic defensive backcourt with Donovan Mitchell in time.

The former No. 5 pick is still just 22, and when you compare his deal with LaVine’s or Marcus Smart’s inevitable payday, it could become a bargain contract the next three seasons, which not coincidentally sees Utah through Mitchell’s first contract.

Zach LaVine — 23 years old — Restricted FA
Agreed to offer sheet with Sacramento Kings for four years, $78 million (matched by Bulls)

LaVine belongs to a class of player in the NBA that is nearly impossible to peg. Not only has his value come entirely on offense early in his career, but he is also young enough to have not yet hit his ceiling. So judging his market was tough — who would bet on a leap from simply average offensively to elite enough to earn the contract LaVine wanted?

That team became the Kings, who are in the Brooklyn Nets’ old position for at least one season, having traded their 2019 first-round pick along with Nik Stauskas to Philadelphia two summers ago. That pick now belongs to Boston, so Sacramento throwing money at LaVine makes sense in theory, giving them the ammo to compete at a higher level next season when tanking would be a lost cause.

But what matters is the three years after that. Can LaVine, who is coming off a torn ACL, grow into an elite shooter and finisher? Or will his defensive deficiencies prevent him from ever providing good value on this deal? The Bulls just signed up to find out.

Jusuf Nurkic — 23 years old — Restricted FA
Agreed to return to Portland Trail Blazers for four years, $48 million

As has become the status quo for Portland, a team struggling to compete during its surprise superstar’s prime, the Trail Blazers overpaid slightly to lock in a solid young piece moving forward by re-signing Nurkic.

Facing a market that, for the second consecutive summer, chewed up and swallowed big men, Portland bailed Nurkic out by offering him a four-year deal considerably more lucrative than the mid-level exception, which might have been his highest offer from other teams. They in turn get a starting-caliber center on a deal that lines up perfectly with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum’s contracts, with a fourth year that will guarantee Nurkic just $4 million.

ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported Wednesday that the Trail Blazers had no competition to stave off for Nurkic’s services, and the Bosnian big man faced the real possibility of playing out the season on the qualifying offer and diving into unrestricted free agency in 2019.

Portland has historically avoided that standoff and retained its players. In somewhat related news, they were swept in the first round last season. It’s tough to say that giving Nurkic this deal moves the needle as concerns mount that Lillard is considering better winning situations.

Julius Randle — 23 years old — Unrestricted FA
Agreed to sign with New Orleans Pelicans for two years, $18 million

Amid the whirlwind that was LeBron James’ first day as a Laker, Randle became the third casualty of the Lakers’ young core as the franchise transitions toward building another contender.

First, in 2016, it was D’Angelo Russell, shipped out due to questions about his attitude on and off the court and to make room for another point guard picked second overall, Lonzo Ball. Then, last year, Jordan Clarkson became the casualty of a cap space-clearing move that netted the Lakers a first-round pick in the draft this past June.

Finally, in order to pursue players that supposedly better fit James’ preferred playing style as he nears the end of his career, the Lakers renounced Randle’s free agency rights, clearing his cap hold off their books and making him an unrestricted free agent.

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New Orleans pounced on the opportunity to add the bouncy, versatile big man to their rotation for the mid-level exception. Anthony Davis was reportedly a key factor in their pursuit of Randle, and in the end the young former Laker agreed to a two-year deal with a player option next summer that would allow him to become a free agent in 2019, when more teams are expected to have cap space.

This year, Randle will become a key part of the Pelicans’ rotation alongside Davis and Nikola Mirotic. Those three form the perfect versatile rotation the Pelicans have never been able to offer Davis. Having that much two-way talent next to him might ease Davis’ burden slightly and allow the veteran big man to play center in crunch time and contribute even more on defense, two areas in which his impact has been limited as he’s carried a massive scoring load at the power forward position.