Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury: Preview and prediction

Deontay Wilder defends his WBC heavyweight title against lineal champion Tyson Fury. Both are undefeated, but someone’s walking away with a loss.

On Saturday, Dec. 1, Los Angeles’s Staples Center hosts the most anticipated heavyweight title bout of 2018. Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) defends his WBC title against British heavyweight Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs). Wilder splashes into the pay-per-view market this time out on a broadcast which is being handled by Showtime. Another knockout victory would vault Wilder to the top of the heavyweight division. A loss for the American could ruin his career and his sense of invincibility.

Wilder and Fury are both showmen with tons of charisma. Their All Access series episodes were entertaining and helped build up the pre-fight hype. Their recent press conference meele also attracted attention, but the ill will between them is mostly a performance to help promote the fight. They respect each other and know that they have to act crazy to attract the attention of casual fight fans. This is a pay-per-view fight, so both men have to help sell this fight to make it a financial success.

The biggest selling point is that Wilder and Fury are undefeated and come from separate countries. They’re producing the revolutionary war of boxing. British fans favor Fury while American fans are pulling for Wilder.

Oddsmakers see this as a close fight. The Sportsbook Review gives Wilder a slight edge. He’s hovering around -145 odds, which is a bit surprising. Fury’s ability to shed more than 150 pounds and his past performance against Wladimir Klitschko lingers in boxing pundits’ minds. That’s a mistake.

People look at Fury’s record and see his victory against Klitschko and offer him a legitimate chance to beat Wilder. If they went back and watched that fight, they might change their minds. It was one of the ugliest heavyweight title fights in recent memory. Klitschko fought cautiously to protect his glass jaw, and Fury counter-punched to avoid Klitschko’s right hand. He scored more points, but both men fought out of fear and barely threw punches. According to CompuBox, Fury only landed 86 punches. That’s horrendous.

If Fury lands less than 100 punches against Wilder, he will get knocked out. He’s not a power puncher, to begin with, so look for Wilder to walk through his punches. Wilder will be careful and patient for the first four or five rounds, but then he will take risks and try to catch Fury as he tires. Wilder doesn’t worry about his chin as Klitschko did, so look for him to push the pace.

Fury is an awkward boxer who can score while frustrating his opponents. He’ll try to stay on the outside and move his shoulders to dodge Wilder’s punches. If this was 2015, he might be able to carry Wilder into the championship rounds and make him miss his shots, but a lot has happened since then.

Fury had a destructive mental breakdown after he became the heavyweight champion. Depression struck, and he abused alcohol and drugs. He had suicidal thoughts and ballooned in weight. Fury has gotten his life together and should be commended for his turnaround, but the abuse he put his body through took a toll. He is 30 years old but looks like he’s 45.

He looked terrible in his return bout with Sefer Seferi and performed less than satisfactorily against Francesco Pianeta in August. In comparison, Wilder had the best performance of his career against Luis Ortiz in his previous bout. He was also battling a severe cold in that contest, and his weight dropped drastically in the week leading up to the fight.

Wilder is in tremendous shape, has the most powerful right hand in boxing and has been much more active than Fury over the last three years. He should knock out Fury somewhere between rounds seven and nine. Fury is in good shape by his standards, but he lacks Wilder’s athleticism. He’s a better boxer skill-wise, but he doesn’t have the power to keep Wilder off him.

There’s one potential scenario where Fury could emerge victorious. Wilder’s right hand is so forceful that he has broken it on at least two occasions which have required surgery. Wilder has a titanium rod in his hand that has been replaced. He has bent it once and could do it again.

FanSided visited Wilder’s camp in early November, and he seldom used his right hand during workouts. His punch count with his right hand was limited on purpose for precautionary reasons, and it didn’t show signs of swelling. He threw it with vigor during media workouts in recent weeks, but broken hands are an added concern for boxers, especially if they’ve done it multiple times.

If Wilder breaks his right hand against Fury, he could be in trouble. He broke it against Stiverne in 2015 and Chris Arreola in 2016 but won both fights. Fury is much better than both of them. He could properly take advantage of an injured Wilder.

Barring injury, Wilder should punish Fury in the mid to late rounds. He has learned to be patient and to let the knockout come naturally. Fury’s bark is worse than his bite. He’s trying to convince himself that he has a shot against Wilder, but deep down, he knows that he’s deluding himself.