College football 2022 Week 12 upset pick, lock, bad bet, and strangest thing

The margin for error gets slimmer with each passing week, and Week 12 of this college football season could be the last gasp for a few teams who want to be playoff contenders. 

The picture is beginning to come into focus for the College Football Playoff and time is running out for some teams to make an impression on the committee. After a bit of top-ten chaos in Week 11, the top four teams remain unchanged. That will likely come to a halt in the next two weeks.

Georgia and LSU punched their ticket to the SEC Championship Game, and there’s a chance they both could be in the final four when the playoff comes around. (That sound you just heard was legions of SEC-hating fans who would rather have their school go on double-secret probation before seeing another playoff field with two SEC teams.)

Teams who are on the bubble — Tennessee, LSU, USC — need to make the next few weeks count. Any stumbles and they’re done. They need to run the table and do it convincingly, and in some cases get some help.

There are games that will have a significant impact on the next round of rankings and some of them are part of this week’s picks.

Looking back at my Week 11 picks before moving into this week’s predictions and spreads.

Upset: Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin almost got the monkey off their backs, but didn’t quite have enough tricks in the bag to upset Alabama. However, they did beat the 11.5-point spread, as I predicted.

Lock: Indiana may not have even been in the same stadium as Ohio State, as the Buckeyes rolled to a 56-14 win, giving me tickmarks in the spread and the over/under

3-0 last week on picks brings me to 18-11 on the season. Here are my picks for Week 12 with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

College Football Week 12 Upset Pick: USC Trojans vs UCLA Bruins

A close spread for two seemingly evenly-matched teams. Both teams boast great quarterbacks, and both teams come in at 6-4 ATS this year. So how do you lean one way or the other?

This one is all about guts, or at least gut feelings, and my gut feeling is telling me that UCLA is ready to take the next step and move into a position to challenge for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

UCLA is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year and coming in as a 1.5-point dog is exactly where Chip Kelly wants to be. This will be a showcase game for Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kelly’s offense against a USC pass defense that has struggled this season, giving up over 250 yards per game and a bloated 7.3 yards per completion.

Pick: A lot of points, but UCLA pulls away in the fourth quarter against a tired USC defense. Bruins with the outright win. I’ll also take the over at 75.5 with both teams averaging over 40 points per game. 

Another upset? Why not!

College Football Week 12 BONUS Upset Pick: Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt snapped a 26-game SEC losing streak last week in their upset win over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Commodores are on a roll!

Will #AnchorDown notch a second consecutive win with the Gators coming to Nashville? 50/50 chance of the outright win in my opinion, but Vandy isn’t going to lay down either. They’ll beat the two-touchdown spread at the very least.

Pick: Low-scoring game, lots of running, lots of penalties. Vandy keeps it close

So which game is a guaranteed lock this week?

College Football Week 12 Lock: TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears

This is a big, in-state rivalry game, and Baylor would like nothing more than to spoil the party for TCU’s College Football Playoff hopes. It’s going to be a dogfight down in Waco.

TCU is the best team in the nation ATS this year, and I wouldn’t bet against them despite this being one of those heated rivalries. Sonny Dykes — my vote for coach of the year — has this team truly believing.

Baylor simply doesn’t have the horses to keep up with TCU, and while the first half may be close (or even find TCU behind) the strength of the Horned Frogs’ line play will wear down the Bears and lead to some mistakes. Look for the TCU running game to grind the Bears down in the fourth quarter.

Pick: TCU is just a better team. Frogs by a touchdown

So what’s the game to stay away from this week?

College Football Week 11 Bad Bet: Georgia Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats

Why would I avoid a game featuring the No. 1 team in the nation against a team who is currently seeing the wheels fall off the bus? Welcome to the SEC, that’s why.

Kentucky no doubt feels embarrassed to be the team that Vandy finally beat. They were picked as a possible challenger to Georgia in the preseason, and now the best they can hope is to potentially knock a cog off of the Georgia playoff machine.

This is Georgia’s second consecutive road game, and facing a pissed-off Kentucky team in a hostile environment is probably not the place for a runaway win. The Dawgs are a better team up and down the roster, but there are some games when rosters don’t matter. Georgia’s 6-4 record ATS this year is another red flag.

Pick: Georgia wins, but may struggle to cover a 22.5-point spread. Be careful if you have this game on your list. 

The Strangest Thing We Saw in College Football Week 11

Strange things in Week 11? Vandy ends a long losing streak, UConn becomes bowl eligible, top ten upsets? All very strange, but not quite as strange — and entertaining — as this.

USC was up 32-10 against Colorado in the third quarter when Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, who has never found a point margin big enough to suit him, wanted to give the playoff committee a highlight to dazzle them.

Riley called for a fake PAT with holder Will Rose (aka the Trojan’s punter). Rose easily strolled in for a two-point conversion and then gave the crowd a celebratory backflip.

Unfortunately for Rose, this isn’t the NFL, and such demonstrations of exuberance are frowned upon. The yellow laundry hit the field and the Trojans were penalized on the ensuing kickoff. The penalty didn’t matter, and Lincoln Riley didn’t care either way after USC rolled to a 55-17 win over the hapless Buffs.

Pat McAfee was probably bursting with pride over seeing a punter used in such a way.

This is my yearly plea to do away with “celebration” penalties in college football. Let these kids have some fun!

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