College Football Playoff rankings, Week 12: 5 lingering questions from CFP rankings

The College Football Playoff rankings after Oregon and UCLA’s losses were released but some questions remain and we have some potential answers.

Coming into the College Football Playoff rankings reveal for Week 12 on Tuesday night — and while we waited painstakingly for the end of Kentucky and Michigan State on the hardwood — there wasn’t expected to be much drama at all. Georgia was clearly coming in at No. 1 and it figured that Ohio State, Michigan and TCU would complete the Top 4 in order, just like last week.

Moreover, it was also expected that Oregon would drop out of the Top 10 after its loss to Washington, likely moving LSU and USC up right behind Tennessee at No. 5.

And indeed, that was the way things played out in the latest rankings.

There are only two weeks left in the regular season before we get into the ever-important conference championship matchups, however. So despite the lack of surprises in the rankings, there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. But we have some answers to the lingering questions after the latest rankings reveal.

College Football Playoff rankings: 5 lingering questions and answers

5. Is UNC out of the College Football Playoff, ACC Champions or not?

Possibly the biggest outlier of the College Football Playoff rankings is the North Carolina Tar Heels, a one-loss team set to play for the ACC Championship and the only team with a conceivable shot at making it into the Playoff that’s not currently inside the Top 10. But do the Heels actually have a shot?

One thing that the committee has noted is that they value game control, which has not worked in favor of UNC this season due to the fact that the defense has put them in hairy situations throughout the year. Additionally, the Tar Heels also don’t have a true quality win to their credit, though they can pick up two to end the season as they face NC State to conclude the regular season and then Clemson in the ACC title game.

Given where the Heels are currently slotted, though, it still feels like they would be left out barring true chaos throughout the rest of the top of the rankings. Their resumé just doesn’t stack up in the manner that it needs to at this point and I’m not sure their final stretch of games is enough to change that.

4. Does TCU have to remain perfect to make the Playoff?

That’s certainly the way it seems.

I’m frankly baffled by the way the committee has treated TCU in relation to some of the other teams in contention for the College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs have harnessed the power of the Hypnotoad for an undefeated season to this point and now has wins over Kansas State (No. 15), Oklahoma State (No. 22) and Texas (a team that the committee has loved all year). You could argue that’s three wins on par with the best win Ohio State and Michigan have to their credit.

And yet, because the Horned Frogs climbed into the spot unexpectedly, it feels as if Sonny Dykes is having to fight an uphill battle. Sitting at No. 4 in the rankings for the past two weeks, they are on the knife’s edge knowing that one slip-up and it’ll be next to impossible for TCU to make it to the Playoff.

TCU finishes the season at Baylor and at home against Iowa State before the Big 12 title game. That won’t be a cake walk, but it does seem that they’ll have to keep that zero in the loss column to stay alive for the CFP.

3. Will USC’s remaining schedule be enough to jump LSU and Tennessee?

It should be said that USC’s lone loss on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Utah that came on a gutsy two-point conversion from the Utes, continues to look better as Kyle Whittingham’s team keeps piling up wins. But that still doesn’t remove the fact that the Trojans have just one victory right now over a team ranked inside the latest Top 25 rankings (Oregon State).

Having said that, Lincoln Riley’s team is set up perfectly to surge up the rankings down the final stretch of this season. This week, they get to face No. 16 UCLA. The week after, they have another Top 20 matchup against rival Notre Dame. And assuming they can get over the Bruins, they will then have the Pac-12 Championship Game for a chance at another quality win.

Truth be told, it feels like the lack of quality wins is the one thing that’s holding the Trojans back at this point (well, that and the defense allowing inferior opponents to provide challenges). However, if Caleb Williams can lead his team to finish the year with just one loss as Pac-12 champs, that will add three huge victories to the resumé and could very well be enough to vault them ahead of non-conference champion Tennessee and perhaps LSU, depending on what the Tigers do in the SEC title game.

2. Could Ohio State-Michigan loser still make the Playoff?

This would undoubtedly be the last thing that Tennessee, LSU and USC fans would want to hear, but it’s entirely possible that the loser of The Game on Thanksgiving weekend in Columbus could still make the Playoff.

Now, it’s worth noting that CFP chairman Boo Corrigan said to ESPN on Tuesday that Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame is why the Buckeyes are ranked ahead of Michigan. But in the same breath, he also maintained that the two teams are close.

For me, that reads pretty simply. If the Wolverines and Buckeyes play a tight one-possession game on Nov. 26, then there is a very realistic chance that both teams could make it in, especially if TCU were to lose in the Big 12 Championship Game, as mentioned. And with the rankings the way they currently sit, there’s also a world in which Michigan could win decisively, although not in a blowout, and Ohio State could still make it in.

In any case, the loser of The Game would likely need some help, but it’s not at all far-fetched to say that both teams are still alive almost regardless of the result of the rivalry matchup.

1. Is Georgia all but locked into the College Football Playoff?

Let’s go ahead and address the fact that it’s hard to imagine that Georgia is losing to either Kentucky (a team that just gave Vanderbilt its first SEC win after 26 straight losses) or Georgia Tech to end the regular season.

So if you accept the fact that Georgia is going to finish the regular season at 12-0 and then face LSU in the SEC Championship Game, it already felt like the No. 1-ranked team was in a comfortable position. But that feels even more so the case after CFP committee chairman Boo Corrigan said on Tuesday that the Bulldogs have “separated” themselves from the rest of the field.

Much like with the OSU-Michigan game, it would certainly matter how UGA lost to LSU for the SEC title to ensure that they would get into the College Football Playoff. However, the way that Corrigan talked about Kirby Smart’s team, it feels like the convincing manner in which they beat Oregon and Tennessee — along with their recent dominance otherwise — has put the defending national champions in a spot where they would have to end the year disastrously to not be playing on New Year’s Eve.

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