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PGA Championship cut line prediction 2023: Can Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth make the cut?

By Cody Williams

ROCHESTER, NEW YORK - MAY 18: Jon Rahm of Spain reacts on the ninth green during the first round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 18, 2023 in Rochester, New York. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
ROCHESTER, NEW YORK - MAY 18: Jon Rahm of Spain reacts on the ninth green during the first round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 18, 2023 in Rochester, New York. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images) /
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Taking a look at the 2023 PGA Championship cut line prediction and projection to see where the number will be and if Rahm, Spieth and others will make it.

In the week leading up to the 2023 PGA Championship, golf fans were promised potential carnage and US Open-like conditions from Oak Hill Country Club. And that’s exactly what it delivered.

With the late wave in the first round about halfway through their first round, only 18 of the 156 players in the field for the 2023 PGA Championship were under par. And those over par included a host of massive names, not the least of which was one of the favorites, Jon Rahm, who posted a shocking round of 76, putting him at 6-over for the tournament after just his first round.

Other notable players struggling included Jordan Spieth (+3), Jason Day (+6), Matt Fitzpatrick (+6), while others still on the course like Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young and more were also well over par at the PGA.

So that had many fans asking what the 2023 PGA Championship cut line is going to end up being with so many big-name players struggling. With that, let’s take a look at the PGA Championship cut projection to see where the line could end up and what that means for some of those top players.

Projected 2023 PGA Championship cut line at Oak Hill

Update, 9:30 a.m. ET – Early in the second round, the projected PGA Championship cut line has moved a bit. DataGolf is now projecting a 26.2% chance that the number ends up being +4 but a vast favorite chance that it ends up at +5 with 51.9% probability. There is also still an 18.5% shot that it comes in higher at +6.

Given that, barring a complete collapse on Friday, that’s relatively good news for players like Spieth in the +3 range, especially if they can bounce back closer or under even par in the second round.

In the case of players like Rahm, Fitzpatrick and more in the range of the projected PGA Championship cut line right now, though, that means they aren’t dead in the water, but that there is a lot of work to be done on Friday if they want to see the weekend.

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