2025 NBA Mock Draft ahead of March Madness Sweet 16: Cooper Flagg, Derik Queen dominate

The first week of March Madness didn't feature as much go-for-broke craziness as we're used to, but there was plenty of quality hoops on the docket.

Maryland's Derik Queen delivered our first taste of proper madness late Sunday evening with a whirling, game-winning jumper at the buzzer against Colorado State. The Baltimore native put his name in the Terps history books and endeared himself to the broader college basketball community — not to mention NBA scouts.

Queen was far from the only NBA Draft prospect to improve his standing this weekend, though. Duke's trio of potential lottery picks all showed out in back-to-back dominant performances. The Blue Devils look awfully scary compared to the field right now.

Meanwhile, Jeremiah Fears put up numbers in Oklahoma's first-round loss to UConn, while VJ Edgecombe produced admirably in Baylor's brief March Madness stint. And those are just the projected lottery picks.

The NCAA Tournament is often a showcase for fringe draft picks and second-round prospects to boost their stock on a national stage. Plenty of burgeoning March heroes, such as Houston's Milos Uzan, Florida's Walter Clayton Jr., Tennessee's Chaz Lanier, and Texas Tech's JT Toppin, will get their opportunity over the next week-plus to really make a case to NBA scouts.

As we get prepared for the Sweet 16, here's how our latest NBA mock draft projections shape up — with a lottery simulation via Tankathon, as always.

2025 NBA Mock Draft after first weekend of March Madness

Cooper Flagg is on track for a special March Madness run

It's rare for freshmen to dominate college hoops on both ends to the extent Cooper Flagg has. Precious few get the chance (nor have the capacity) to lead their team to glory in March Madness. Duke still has a ways to go, but after thorough beatings of Mount St. Mary's and Baylor, Duke looks as dominant as any team in the tournament.

Flagg, still 18, continues to produce across the board as the beating heart of this Blue Devils team. He has a ton of talent around him, but the presumptive Wooden Award favorite continues to stand apart from the crowd with efficient three-level shot creation and smothering defense at 6-foot-9.

He remains the undisputed No. 1 overall pick. There is no competition here.

Derik Queen puts Maryland (and himself) on the map with miraculous game-winner

Yours truly picked Maryland to reach the championship round, so it's safe to say Sunday's game-winner from Terps freshman Derik Queen hit like a jolt of adrenaline. This is star stuff. Stop squabbling over the definition of a travel and enjoy greatness, folks.

Queen is making his NBA Draft case on college basketball's grandest stage. He entered the year with question marks surrounding his defensive projection and outmoded offensive skill set, but Queen has flipped that narrative on its head with a dominant one-and-done campaign. He's hitting 3s, dominating on face-up drives, and showcasing a playmaking vision few true bigs possess.

OKC, if it lucks into a top-seven pick, feels like a natural home for Queen. He fits their dribble-pass-shoot identity, comfortable attacking from the perimeter, collapsing the defense, and making sharp decisions on the ball. He could serve as a tantalizing long-term frontcourt partner for Chet Holmgren.

Jase Richardson's 1-for-10 stinker in second round shouldn't mean too much

Michigan State looks quite vulnerable despite advancing to the Sweet 16. Tom Izzo's squad has gotten off to slow starts in each game. Freshman Jase Richardson, who came on strong as the Spartans' best player late in the campaign, was especially shaky in their Round of 32 win over New Mexico.

He finished 1-of-10 from the field and tallied six points, four assists, and two steals across a team-high 30 minutes. That's obviously not what scouts want to see, but don't let one fluky stinker color your perspective too much. Richardson has been remarkably steadfast and efficient all season. Every player has bad games. Sometimes it just comes at an inopportune time.

Richardson will get a chance to reverse the narrative in a Sweet 16 showdown against Ole Miss. For now, he's still a clear lottery talent who could carve out immediate minutes, even for a contender with a deep backcourt like Houston. I'm buying stock in Reed Sheppard and Jase Richardson as a long-term pairing, size concerns be damned.

Egor Demin continues to impress and mystify as BYU punches Sweet 16 ticket

BYU is into the Sweet 16 in Kevin Young's first season as head coach. As usual, the driving force behind their success in 6-foot-9 freshman "point guard" Egor Demin. He has been pleasantly productive through two rounds of March Madness, including three made 3s in their opening victory over VCU.

That will be Demin's swing skill at the next level. If he can continue roping 3s for a few more games, NBA scouts will continue to invest in stock for the Russian 19-year-old. Demin has undeniable passing flair, which is uncommon for such a tall, lanky athlete. His archetype is incredibly valuable in today's NBA, which has meant folks are willing to overlook some of his more troubling habits.

Demin still needs to improve his composure against on-ball pressure and bulk up for defensive and finishing purposes, but there's a good chance a team in the top-20 decides to take a swing on the 6-foot-9 playmaking whiz. Especially if he can keep hitting big shots in big games.

Bennett Stirtz, should he stay or should he go?

Drake was everyone's favorite Cinderella pick in the first weekend of March Madness. Drake ousted No. 6 Missouri in the first round before running up against the red-hot Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Round of 32. Stirtz impressed in both games, showcasing his ability to improvise and produce in different ways as the focal point of the opposing scouting report.

Stirtz has been a pick-and-roll machine all season for the Bulldogs. Both Missouri and Texas Tech made a concerted effort to take those opportunities away from Stirtz. He faced constant on-ball pressure and a variety of different coverages. Still, he found the creases in Power Five defenses and took advantage with shifty handles, sharp passes, and a steady barrage of pull-up jumpers.

There's a strong argument for Stirtz as a first-round pick this season, but I'm not sure the NBA at large is quite there yet. He remains more commonly pegged as a second-round prospect. Now his head coach is departing for Iowa, with Stirtz presumably welcome to come along if he returns to college for his senior season. A chance to showcase his skill set against better competition for a full season could be too much for Stirtz to pass up, especially if early indications suggest lingering skepticism in NBA circles.

Florida's top prospects need to pick things up in the Sweet 16

The Gators were probably the hottest No. 1 seed at the onset of the tournament. That said, Florida looked awfully beatable against No. 8 UConn over the weekend. The Huskies are obviously a tough out, as Dan Hurley's team has unmatched experience on the March Madness stage. Still, stumbling into what feels like a lucky second-round win does not bode well for Florida's outlook the rest of the way.

Walter Clayton Jr. finished strong with 23 points on 14 shots, but he struggled to crack UConn's defense in the first half. Meanwhile, Alex Condon — Florida's other projected second-round pick — was invisible for most of the game, finishing with five points, seven rebounds, and four assists in 28 minutes. He took two shot attempts overall.

Florida will need more from its top talent in order to capture the national title.

Illinois' second-round exit leaves Kasparas Jakucionis with more questions than answers

The Fighting Illini met their end in the Round of 32 against a scorching Kentucky team. Kasparas Jakucionis, after a strong showing in their opening win over Xavier, looked more flustered against SEC competition. He finished with 13 points on 13 shots to go along with five rebounds, two assists, and most troubling of all, six turnovers.

Jakucionis now has six turnovers in four straight games. It has been a mixed bag for the projected lottery pick ever since conference play started. He's a pretty magical passer with enough pull-up shooting juice to sustain point guard projections, but his consistent struggles against on-ball pressure are worrisome. Jakucionis doesn't create much separation with his handle and he continues to let the defense rush him into ill-advised decisions. Factor in subpar individual defense, and the holes are becoming a bit too glaring.

He still makes a lot of sense for a team in need of backcourt depth like Dallas, especially since he'd be able to share the workload with an established on-ball generator like Kyrie Irving. Jakucionis is a knockdown shooter with plenty of off-ball utility, so he's probably best suited to a team where he's not asked to shoulder the carry on every possession.