2026 PGA Championship favorites ranked by statistical fit at Aronimink

For the first time since 1962, suburban Philadelphia's Aronimink Golf Club is set to host a men's major, as 156 of the top players in the world will converge on the famed Donald Ross design this week for the 2026 PGA Championship.

Now, it's not as if none of these players have seen Aronimink before, as the PGA Tour held the BMW Championship here back in 2018, a playoff event won by Keegan Bradley in a playoff over Justin Rose. And some were even around when the now-defunct AT&T National was contested here in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011. Nevertheless, this isn't a track that we see often.

How Aronimink could play for the 2026 PGA Championship

By typical standards, this is not a long golf course, as it'll play roughly 7,400 yards. And with a plethora of trees being removed during a 2016 redesign, it's not terribly tight either. That said, there are close to 200 bunkers that players will have to contend with throughout the week, and plenty of hilly lies and absolutely massive greens averaging 8,300 square feet await the field as well. And the putting surfaces will be lightning quick, as they're set to roll at about 13.5 on the Stimpmeter.

So, what's it going to take to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday? Well, as we see it, putting will be at a premium. Yes, that's a cliché point to make at any tournament, but with greens this big and this fast, lag putting, speed control, and making key par saves will be crucial.

Given the layout, we're not going to see a ton of mid-iron play this week, as we're thinking that 14 of the 18 approach shots will either come with a wedge or a long iron, with the three par-3s playing 216 yards or longer mostly in mind for the latter. And with those big greens, proximity to the hole on those iron shots will play a factor as well, so that's another area we like.

Lastly, with Aronimink playing to a par of 70 and boasting only two par-5s, the first of which plays to over 600 yards (and uphill toward the green), par-4 scoring will naturally be important, as a dozen of the 18 holes fall into that category.

Now, given the parameters we've put forth, the favorites are still who you'd expect, and we really have no choice but to include the top three players in the world right now, those being Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young.

But in lieu of including some of the other betting favorites like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau (sorry, I don't like any of the LIV guys this week), Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, or Matt Fitzpatrick, I'm going to use the first two picks on guys who don't fall into that top-tier category

5. Brooks Koepka

Okay, so maybe it's a bit of a copout to call a five-time major champion and a three-time winner of this very event a second-tier star right now, but that's where we are with Brooks Koepka as he continues to readjust to life on the PGA Tour.

While Koepka has just one top-10 finish since his return, that being a tie for ninth at the Cognizant Classic, what I like about him this week is the fact that he leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach (0.983) and GIR percentage from 200-plus yards (64.29%) and ranks third in proximity to the hole (34 feet, 7 inches).

Do I like his ranking 149th in strokes gained putting (-0.525). No, I don't. But Brooks is just different when it comes to majors, and that'll be on display once he hits the surfaces at Aronimink.

4. Akshay Bhatia

Bet you didn't see this one coming, did you? But make no mistake about it; this course sets up beautifully for Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his third PGA Tour victory a couple months back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

You want putting? The lefty ranks fifth in strokes gained in that department (0.703), fourth in putts per round (27.67), and eighth in one-putt percentage (45.16%). You want par-4 scoring? Bhatia ranks fourth (3.93), also ranking fourth in birdie average (4.67).

The approach stats as a whole aren't quite as nice, as he ranks 23rd overall in that area, but I do like his ranking seventh in proximity from 125-150 yards at 19 feet, 5 inches.

3. Cameron Young

And we now come to the more cookie-cutter portion of the board, as we get to world No. 3 Cameron Young, who many believe will walk away from Aronimink with the big hardware on Sunday.

While we didn't mention this above, bogey avoidance has to be taken into account at majors, and Young currently ranks second on the PGA Tour in that department, as he only cards one 10.69% of the time.

The New York native also ranks second in total strokes gained (1.693, second in par-4 scoring average (3.92), 10th in proximity to the hole (35 feet, 1 inch), and 15th in putts per round (27.88). Yeah, there's a reason he leads the FedEx Cup standings right now.

2. Rory McIlroy

I'll admit that with Rory McIlroy ranking 105th in strokes gained putting at the moment (-0.177), Young almost took this No. 2 spot. But the world No. 2 is just so good at everything else, and the fact that he's the most recent major champion after winning The Masters for the second straight year has to count for something, right?

Despite that woeful ranking with the flat stick, McIlroy still ranks second in birdie average (4.73), fourth in total strokes gained (1.525), fifth in par-4 scoring (3.94), seventh in strokes gained on approach (0.742), seventh in GIR percentage (70.45%), 12th in total proximity (35 feet, 4 inches), and 13th in proximity from 200-plus yards (46 feet, 9 inches).

You don't think this guy will be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday?

1. Scottie Scheffler

As if there could be anyone else at No. 1.

While Scottie Scheffler hasn't quite been able to close the deal recently, posting three consecutive second-place finishes in his last three starts, he's still the clear favorite heading into Aronimink, as he looks to become the first back-to-back winner of the PGA Championship since Brooks Koepka in 2018 and 2019.

The world No. 1 ranks first in total strokes gained (2.056), first in overall scoring average (68.28), first in par-4 scoring average (3.88), first in birdie average (5.03), first in bogey avoidance (9.88%), first in ball striking, first in GIR percentage (71.30%), second in putting average (1.675), and sixth in putts per round (27.69). Trust us; we could keep going.

If Scheffler gets going early, which has been his biggest issue this year, he may just be able to cruise on Sunday afternoon.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow