Just when it seems like things can't get any worse for the Baltimore Orioles, the team does something to disabuse fans of that notion. Baltimore enters play on Fridya at a dismal 19-36, a full 16 games out of first place in the AL East and with only the Chicago White Sox saving them from the ignominy of the American League's worst record.
That awful start has already precipitated one big change, the firing of manager Brandon Hyde earlier this month. But beyond that, GM Mike Elias seems hell-bent on trusting his own particular process. At every step of this Baltimore rebuild, Elias has resisted calls for more urgency, arguing that slow and steady would win the race in the end. That served him well when the team was on the ascent, making the playoffs in each of the last two years. Now, though, the trajectory feels far different, and many of his same excuses for inaction don't quite hit the same.
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1. They just need to get healthy
To be sure, the injury bug has not been kind to Baltimore this year. It started even before Opening Day, when presumptive ace Grayson Rodriguez went down — adding to a laundry list of pitchers on the IL including Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Tyler Wells. And things only got worse once the season began: The O's have spent most of 2025 without two pivotal young position players, infielder Jordan Westburg and outfielder Colton Cowser. And now the outfield is officially in crisis mode, as Tyler O'Neill, Ramon Laureano and Cedric Mullins have joined Cowser on the IL.
That's a lot for any team to deal with. But it's also, at least to some extent, a problem that Elias could and should have seen coming. The rotation, in particular, was a problem area entering the offseason, with Bradish, Rogers and Wells all not expected back until midseason at the earliest. Rather than pour meaningful resources into building depth behind Rodriguez, Baltimore went cheap, settling for shorter-term deals for players like Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. No one should have been surprised when that strategy blew up in their face.
And more to the point, the injuries would be a better excuse for the hole the O's find themselves in if there weren't other red flags up and down the active roster.
2. This young core just needs time
It wasn't long ago that the O's foundation of young talent was the envy of baseball. Flash forward a year or two, though, and that talent hasn't progressed enough to keep this team afloat. Westburg and Cowser getting hurt was a blow, but it wouldn't loom nearly as large if Gunnar Henderson (.753 OPS) and Adley Rutschman (.641) were performing up to their reputations.
And they aren't the only ones. Jackson Holliday has taken meaningful steps forward this season, but all the other players Baltimore saw as future contributors have fallen flat — especially outfielder Heston Kjerstad and infielder Coby Mayo, two former top prospects who have been downright awful at the plate. For the last couple of offseasons, Elias has pleaded for patience, arguing that the time would be right once all of the O's young talent started blossoming in the Show. But where is that young talent now?
What was once arguably baseball's best farm system now just has two players on MLB Pipeline's most recent top-100 list — and one of those, Mayo, is slugging .094 over his first 59 Major League plate appearances across 2024 and 2025. The kids aren't so young anymore; this was supposed to be right smack in the middle of Baltimore's competitive window, and if anything the foundation of the team has gotten worse. And if that was the thing Elias was resting his laurels on, what does that say about his ability to thrive in this job moving forward?
3. It's too small a sample size
Yes, it's been just 55 games. And yes, this is the same team that won a combined 192 games across the last two seasons. But this sure doesn't feel like overreacting to one bad run of form. Rutschman and Henderson are former top prospects and established talents who deserve time to work out of a funk; beyond that though, it doesn't feel like the O's problem is bad luck — instead, it's a lack of talent.
The lineup would certainly look a lot better with Westburg and Cowser in the middle of it. But would two more above-average hitters, plus Henderson and Rutschman returning to form, really put this team on level footing with the New York Yankees in the AL East? You'd still have a mess of a pitching staff, one that Elias has long struggled to develop internally save for Rodriguez, and young core that isn't robust enough without any clear reinforcements on the way.