3 teams that could trade for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. based on Blue Jays' asking price

This offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays have had a tough time bringing in new talent to make fans forget the mediocre 2024 season that saw them post a last place 74-88 finish. The Jays were in on two of the top names on the market, those being Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. But with a faltering offseason putting their 2025 season on the line, GM Ross Atkins has another more time sensitive problem.

Atkins’ biggest star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is in his walk year. Atkins has made a few attempts to extend him, but he and Guerrero still remain far apart. Now, Atkins is staring down a sharp deadline on Feb. 17 set by Guerrero as an ultimatum. Extending Guerrerohas quickly become Atkins’ top priority. But even as such, Atkins has shown little initiative in keeping his team’s best slugger. As it turns out, Atkins has not called to negotiate for nearly a month. Now, it seems the Jays’ backup plan, signing Pete Alonso, is gaining steam.

With negotiations at a standstill, Toronto’s extension hopes are fading as the deadline draws closer. Recent interest from the Mets has spurred a storm of Guerrero trade rumors. While it doesn’t seem like a trade is in the cards before the trade deadline, the Jays’ may have indicated what a trade package would need to look like. They expect a return exceeding what the San Diego Padres got from the New York Yankees for Juan Soto. A price such as this is an outrageous ask especially since Guerrero hasn’t been a consistently great player like Soto and the return would only be one player where as the Yankees received two. The Blue Jays are seeking major league players along with top prospects who are major league ready.

Even with the lofty asking price, contenders with the chance to win it all might deem it worthy take the risk. But who has the talent to pull it off? Let’s give these three teams a look.

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3. Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are reeling from the loss of Corbin Burnes who will now take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Hoping to replicate his performance, or at least account for his absence, the O’s pivoted to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. But Baltimore could easily replace his stellar run prevention with Guerrero’s stellar run production. Who could the O’s part with to make this happen?

The Orioles have a deep farm system to deal from, but there are few names more interesting than Jackson Holliday. MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect from last year didn’t really impress at the major league level last season, but his potential is still off the charts. Dealing Holliday for Guerrero would be risky for both teams as he isn’t proven in the majors and swapping numerous years of him for one year of the slugger might be a losing proposition for the O’s if he does live up to his potential.

Since he isn’t proven, the Jays would request a heavier package headlined by the Orioles’ rising star. Would it be a mistake to deal Holliday? Most likely. Would the O’s actually send him off? Probably not. But the reason they are included here is simple. If by any chance Holliday is on the trading block, the Orioles immediately become heavy favorites for any trade candidate they desire including Guerrero.

2. Boston Red Sox

Among teams encouraged to trade for Guerrero is the Boston Red Sox. That encouragement came from Guerrero himself who voiced a desire to play for them. Going into the offseason, the Red Sox had what was probably the deepest pool of prospects in the game. However, the Garrett Crochet trade decreased this depth. Nonetheless, they still retain four top 100 prospects, including three in the top 10.

Including Masataka Yoshida in a package would be a likely scenario, but he couldn’t be the headliner if they are going to land Guerrero. In a scenario where the Jays send Guerrero to Boston, they would likely ask for Triston Casas. There has been trade buzz around Casas including in Guerrero speculation, but problem here is the same as that of trading Holliday. Casas is a powerful bat with tons of upside and years of control. Still, that is the risk seemingly required to pull off a trade for Guerrero given the Jays’ tall expectations.

If the Red Sox were willing to offer up Casas, their chances of landing Guerrero would be very strong. For one year of Guerrero, giving up several years of Casas may not be worth it. However, if the Red Sox are going to given their best shot at a championship, a roll of the dice would be mandatory.

1. New York Mets

That brings us to the team that started the whirlwind of rumors in the first place. The Mets have reportedly checked in Guerrero. If there is one stand-out favorite in the race for Guerrero (which isn’t really a thing … at least, not yet), it would be the Mets. Why?

Besides the fact they already declared their interest, the Mets have plenty of talent ready to make the jump and little room to add them to the roster. Among pieces that could be moved are Ronny Mauricio, Jeff McNeil, Jett Williams, Luisangel Acuna, and Brett Baty. The name Mark Vientos has been thrown around as wel,l though it may be a bad idea for reasons already discussed (plenty of talent and under control for several years). But if the Jays are going to send Guerrero to the Mets, Vientos is likely the headliner.

In addition to the fact that they are saturated with top talent, the Mets have another advantage. Other teams that can’t replace the players they send off are unlikely to part with their top talent. Since the Mets don’t have this problem as discussed above, their key advantage actually accounts for two advantages. Should they deal Vientos, the Mets have options to replace him. Not to mention, the Mets currently have first base open as they have been reluctant to meet Alonso’s demands.

The Blue Jays are looking for a one-stop rebuild on their way to contention. The Mets can handily offer that. Unless the Red Sox offer Casas or the Orioles offer Holliday, the Mets are the team to beat. If the Blue Jays are treading water halfway through 2025, chances are, we could see Guerrero hitting behind Soto after the trade deadline.