In any NBA playoff series, it's critically important to get ahead early. Historical data shows us that the team that wins Game 1 goes on to win the series well over 70 percent of the time, and it makes sense when you think about it: Teams that fall behind need to win four out of the next six games, whereas the Game 1 winner only needs to split the remaining games to move on.
Winning Game 1 also dramatically increases the chances of winning a series early, a fact that should motivate the Los Angeles Lakers even more to get off to a hot start against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The two teams will begin their first-round series on Saturday night at Crypto.com Arena, and for the Lakers, one of the most veteran teams in the league, they'd love not only to win but win quickly in order to rest up for what they hope will be a deep postseason run.
As we wrote about earlier this week, the Wolves are no ordinary No. 6 seed. They finished just a game behind the Lakers in the standings, and have actually been the better team since the All-Star break — even since Luka Dončić first suited up in purple and gold.
These are two teams defined by trades. The Lakers, of course, sent Anthony Davis to Dallas for Luka in early February. That was the most talked-about move of the season for good reason, but there was another one, the trade that sent D'Angelo Russell to Brooklyn for Dorian Finney-Smith in late December, that also set the Lakers on their path to a 50-win season.
Before the Luka trade happened, it was the Wolves' acquisition of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns that shook the NBA from its moorings just before the regular season began. That trade was a shocking move in its own right, as Minnesota was coming off of a Western Conference Finals appearance. (It also broke up the Knicks' Villanova core and gave them a true No. 2 next to Jalen Brunson.)
Both teams have taken circuitous routes to where they are today, but both ended up in a good place by season's end. It's unfortunate that they need to face off in Round 1, but a quick look around the West shows that there aren't many easy opponents to be found.
So what do the Lakers need to do to jump out to an early series lead? Here are our three keys to a Game 1 win.
Lakers key to victory No. 1: Play Rudy Gobert off the floor
Rudy Gobert is one of the best defensive players in the NBA; just look at his four Defensive Player of the Year trophies for proof. At the same time, the Lakers are uniquely equipped to make his life miserable, and in a best-case scenario, could make him virtually unplayable in this series.
Ever since trading AD for Luka, the Lakers have been an extremely perimeter-oriented team. That's not where Gobert excels, as he prefers to protect the rim both against post-ups and as a help defender. He's the main reason that the Wolves have ranked at or near the top of the league in defensive rating since they acquired him from the Jazz in 2022.
Outside of the occasional lob to Jaxson Hayes, the Lakers don't operate in the paint very much. JJ Redick said when he was hired that one of his goals as head coach was to make the team more reliant on the 3-point shot. It took Luka arriving to do it, but there's no doubt that the Lakers play a very different style now than they did at the beginning of the season, when Redick was practically begging the team to shoot more from outside.
The Lakers will try to drag Gobert away from the basket by putting him in pick-and-roll actions, and if they can get him to switch onto Luka, LeBron James or Austin Reaves, they'll have the Wolves right where they want them. All three excel as scorers and as playmakers, and if Gobert isn't under the basket, they'll feast on backdoor cuts and give-and-gos while also being able to get their shot up at will.
Luka especially seems to love playing against Gobert, whom he mercilessly roasted in last year's Western Conference Finals. In fact, when the Mavericks played him a tribute video in his return to Dallas just over a week ago, the Slovenian star said that his favorite moment was his step-back game-winner over the 7-foot Frenchman to clinch Game 2.
If the Wolves lose faith in Gobert's ability to be productive, they'll send him to the bench. The Lakers are looking to play small ball anyway, so that would be fine with them, and it could help nullify Minnesota's rebounding advantage, too.
Lakers key to victory No. 2: Guard the Wolves straight up
Most teams that play the Wolves have Anthony Edwards at the top of their scouting report, as well they should. The Ant-Man is one of the up-and-coming superstars of the league, and he proved in last year's playoff run that he was capable of putting a team on his back in the postseason.
Edwards is phenomenal, but the Lakers can't fall into the trap of devoting too much defensive attention to him. They should absolutely put their best defender on him, whether they believe that to be Dorian Finney-Smith or Jarred Vanderbilt, but they should avoid the temptation to double-team him.
Overcommitting to Ant will open things up for the rest of the Wolves, and that's how the Lakers can get into trouble. Minnesota is loaded with quality 3-point shooters. Edwards is of course one of them, as he led the league in 3s made, but his teammates are no slouches either: DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker all shoot 37.9 percent or better from 3, and they shoot over 22 of them a game. If the Lakers double Ant, someone is going to be open, and it will almost surely be a guy that knows how to knock down an open shot.
The same defensive discipline needs to be exercised against Julius Randle, as well. Randle likes to play bully ball and back his man down. Sometimes that will result in a basket, but whatever he does when he gets the ball in his hands isn't as efficient as what will happen if the Lakers send help. Edwards and Randle are going to get their points, and the Lakers have to be OK with that. If one of those other guys is allowed to spring for 20+, the Lakers will have a tough time trying to outscore a team that's this good defensively.
Lakers key to victory No. 3: Unleash Austin Reaves
If you start at the top of the roster and work your way down, this series definitely seems to favor the Lakers. Luka vs. Ant is a draw at best for Minnesota, but probably a win for L.A. LeBron vs. Randle is another clear Lakers win. Even if the Wolves' best two guys show up in the biggest way though, they don't have a third option that's anywhere close to Reaves.
I don't know if other fan bases realize how good Reaves is, but he is an irreplaceable piece of this team. His passing, his shooting, his willingness to put the team on his back if his two more celebrated teammates aren't on the floor — Reaves is so additive to everything the Lakers do. Even his defense, which the Wolves will try to target, isn't nearly enough to bring the rest of his game down.
Reaves keeps the ball moving on offense and always knows how to find Luka, LeBron, DFS in the corner or Hayes on an alley-oop. When he's seeking his own shot, though, the Lakers are especially tough to beat: They're 27-9 on the year when he scores 20 or more and only 19-18 when he scores less.
LeBron and Luka are going to get theirs, just like they always do. But Reaves has been on an upward trajectory for his entire career. If he keeps that going, there's no limit to what the Lakers can accomplish.