4 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade landing spots if Blue Jays come to senses after Sasaki whiff

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Toronto Blue Jays have missed on a high-profile free agent. The latest rendition of this common refrain in Canada is, of course, Roki Sasaki after the superstar Japanese free agent predictably landed with the Dodgers.

The Blue Jays were reportedly among three finalists for Sasaki along with the Dodgers and San Diego Padres. But they ultimately ended up as an also-ran in this conversation, which was the case with Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and just about every other "generational" type free agent they've targeted. Ross Atkins has been willing to spend but no one has wanted to take their money.

This offseason more than others, however, that is more understandable on the part of free agents. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are entering the final year of club control and the writing has been on the wall that both are gone. Vladdy, of course, is the much bigger loss but losing him or both throws the future of the Blue Jays organization's future into disarray.

Atkins has been resistant to the notion of trading Guerrero but Sasaki may have been his last chance to entice him to stay, no matter the amount of money he eventually puts in front of the slugging first baseman. Subsequently, trading Vladdy is now in the best interest of Toronto and, if Atkins and the Blue Jays finally come to realize this, these four teams should be waiting to capitalize — especially if the price is comparable to what the Yankees paid for Juan Soto last offseason.

4. Vladdy is the Seattle Mariners best chance to land an elite bat

It's been a brutal past few years for the Seattle Mariners for reasons entirely separate from their pitching. While the likes of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo comprise one of the league's best rotations, the offense has largely been inept, which reached critical mass last year with some unforeseen struggles at the plate from Julio Rodriguez. They ranked a paltry 22nd in team OPS in MLB for the 2024 season.

Put simply, the Mariners have long been on the search for an elite bat, preferably one with power that can play at T-Mobile Park. Guerrero obviously fits that bill. While he has only a .729 OPS in 16 career games in Seattle, he's still the right-handed pop that the offense direly needs in the middle of the lineup. Furthermore, Seattle has the ability to entice the Blue Jays to make such a trade.

Whether they were to deal a top prospect like catcher Harry Ford, one of their young arms, or something including one of those marquee pieces and more, the Blue Jays would get a building block to start hitting reset that won't be available to them if Guerrero simply leaves in free agency or even if they were to wait until the trade deadline to try and move him.

3. The San Francisco Giants can make their own luck with a Vladdy trade

Perhaps a slightly better version of the Blue Jays in terms of offseason pursuits is an apt way to describe what we've seen from the San Francisco Giants in recent years. They too whiffed on Ohtani, didn't make the finalists for Sasaki, and were at least involved at some point with Soto. However, to the Giants credit, they've had some success pivoting when it comes to the likes of Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames, among others.

Still, in a division wherein San Francisco is trying to annually chase down the Dodgers and Padres, they need more in the fold. More importantly, the lineup needs more pop. They've had a power outage in the Bay Area for some time, something that Guerrero would clearly answer. Much like with Seattle, they do have pieces that should ultimately entice the Blue Jays to make such a deal if Toronto becomes so inclined.

Whether it's their bevy of young infield prospects, a handful of young arms that have tremendous upside, or something that combines the two, the Giants offer the chance for Toronto to get more talent in the system and build something organically in a post-Vladdy world.

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to have the New York Mets, Steve Cohen's attention

Though I remain personally dubious that this is anything more than a bit of leverage being deployed, there are some signs that the New York Mets might not do the obvious and orchestrate a free agency reunion with Pete Alonso. That could throw things for a loop when it comes to first base in Queens but David Stearns and Steve Cohen, fresh off cutting the check for Soto, would surely be willing to pay whatever necessary price to get Guerrero into that spot.

Despite their aggressiveness since Cohen took over ownership of the club, the Mets still have a rich farm system that could be of interest to the Blue Jays, whether they choose to pick from the top of the prospect rankings or mix and match across the board.

However, to me, the Mets seem like a bigger threat in free agency than they do on the potential trade market. That doesn't mean that New York should be ruled out — not in the slightest. But Cohen's ability to flex his checkbook is his biggest weapon. What could make the Mets dangerous in the trade realm, though, is if they see value in getting Vladdy in the building for a year with Soto to try and further entice him to land in Queens in free agency next winter.

1. The Boston Red Sox should remain the favorites for a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. landing spot

As the future of Vladimir Guerrero has consistently shifted toward being played out somewhere other than Toronto, a Blue Jays rival in the Boston Red Sox have been the most consistently mentioned favorite to land him in free agency. But much like the Mets possibly wanting him in the building for a year before he hits the market, Craig Breslow could feel the same and Boston is dangerous if that decision is made.

Even after the Garrett Crochet trade with Chicago earlier this offseason, the Red Sox boast an elite farm system that still includes four players in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects. While Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell might be untouchable as they figure into Boston's plans even this season, the Blue Jays could absolutely use players like Marcelo Mayer, Franklin Arias or even proven big-league assets like Wilyer Abreu or Kutter Crawford.

When you look at Boston's massive need for a right-handed bat, their potential willingness to move Triston Casas or at least shuffle things around with him and Rafael Devers, or even their potential to upgrade from Masataka Yoshida at DH, the Red Sox remain the biggest threat for Vladdy if Atkins and the Blue Jays can be talked out of their unwise stubbornness.