Blue Jays lose out on last, best chance to impress Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of deadline

To quote FanSided's MLB insider Robert Murray: The Toronto Blue Jays are once again the bridesmaid and not the bride.

It's getting hard to keep track of all the free agency whiffs from Ross Atkins and company. Toronto has been in the mix for Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and now Roki Sasaki, but nothing has crossed the finish line. One could argue that Toronto was essentially second-place in all of those races.

Blue Jays fans are understandably frustrated. The front office even went out an traded for Myles Straw's bad contract, which came with $2 million in international bonus pool money attached from the Cleveland Guardians. On the surface, that move plainly signaled that Sasaki was on his way. Instead, it really meant the Blue Jays were in desperation mode, and the front office was throwing caution to the wind in a last-ditch effort to lure Sasaki to the north.

With Sasaki in LA, where we all expected him to sign from the beginning, the Blue Jays are left scrambling for answers, of which there are increasingly few. All the big-ticket free agents are gone. There is still room to upgrade the roster, even to spend a lot of money, but Ross Atkins has come up empty on all his biggest casts.

These persistent failures could push Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out the door.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Blue Jays tenure feels destined to end after Roki Sasaki whiff

Guerrero has given Toronto a hard deadline to work out a contract extension before spring training, otherwise he will play out the final year of his current deal and test the open market in 2026. That is an ominous threat for the Blue Jays, who almost certainly wouldn't be favorites in an all-out bidding war.

At 25 years old, Guerrero is among the very best hitters in the sport. With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto shattering the all-time record for guaranteed money in back-to-back offseasons, there's little keeping Guerrero from making well north of $400, even $500 million. The Blue Jays don't seem particularly close to getting something across the finish line — an unfortunate theme.

The best way to convince Guerrero that Toronto is the right organization to finish his career with (aside from boatloads of cash) is to put stars around him. We'd be having a very different conversation right now if Juan Soto was donning a Blue Jays uniform. Or Corbin Burnes. Or Max Fried. Or hey, even Roki Sasaki, whose youth and affordability makes him a perfect pillar to carry the franchise alongside Guerrero for the next decade. Or would have made.

There just isn't much reason for Guerrero to sign a new deal. He clearly loves it in Toronto, but the Blue Jays' front office reeks of incompetence, and Atkins acting out of desperation probably won't yield positive results. Sure, Toronto has the ammo to go out and sign Pete Alonso or Anthony Santander, but that feels more like a half-measure than a real solution to what ails the Blue Jays. Alonso is great, for example, but he's not a long-term asset, and he's not a franchise-altering talent on his own.

The AL East is getting better, not worse. Toronto has lost ground this winter after a disappointing 2024 campaign. Unless a miracle is on the horizon, it sure feels like Guerrero and Toronto will go their separate ways when the time comes.