The San Francisco 49ers paid Brock Purdy an ungodly amount of money on Friday. $265 million over five years, to be exact. That makes him the seventh-highest paid player in the NFL, raking in $53 million annually with $181 million guaranteed over the first three years.
This was always going to happen, but man... tough beat for the Niners. This is obviously an overpay — one every team with a half-decent QB is destined to replicate for the foreseeable future. It also means San Francisco fell into the same trap the Miami Dolphins did a few years ago.
We can learn from history. It's an instructive force. George Santayana once said: "Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it." Well, damn it, the 49ers did not remember the past.
Miami once paid Tua Tagovailoa $212.4 million over four years, which comes out to $53.1 million annually. That has, uh, not gone well. We ought to brace for similar feelings of despair in San Francisco over the next few years.
49ers' Brock Purdy extension is the same mistake Dolphins made with Tua Tagovailoa
The parallels between Purdy and Tagovailoa are right on the surface. While they entered the NFL with a different set of expectations — Purdy was the last pick in the draft, Mr. Irrelevant, while Tua was a first-round pick — both quickly settled into the realm of 'good, not great' at quarterback.
Both Purdy and Tagovailoa have ample regular season success under their belts. Both are also coming off of bad seasons, in which their teams were derailed by injuries. Tagovailoa has more health concerns than Purdy, and his postseason track record is admittedly shakier, but neither feels like an MVP candidate. They are good quarterbacks with occasional Pro Bowl equity and not much else. Both are paid like outright superstars, because that is the going rate for franchise quarterbacks.
Since signing Tagovailoa to his mega-deal, Miami's success has gradually declined. We've seen the Dolphins fall apart against top-rate competition in the playoffs. Last season, Tagovailoa got hurt (again) and Miami won eight games. Purdy's Niners won six games. He was not the injured party, but as the team around him cratered, so did Purdy's production.
The Niners and Dolphins run similarly exciting schemes on offense. Kyle Shanahan is one of the most gifted play-callers of his generation, even if he has fallen short on the Super Bowl stage twice now. Mike McDaniel is a direct disciple who has brought countless Shanahan concepts to South Beach.
That said, aside from a fun scheme and a few glitzy, high-voltage playmakers like Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill, neither team feels built for a deep run. The Niners have already lost several stars over the past few months, with Deebo Samuel and Charvarius Ward among those landing with new teams. This will become an increasingly prominent theme as Purdy's contract weighs down San Francisco's cap sheet. George Kittle and hopefully Fred Warner will stick around, but the Niners aren't nearly as stacked as they were during the 2023 Super Bowl run. It's impossible to pay everyone and your quarterback.
Purdy and Tagovailoa can both execute within a scheme — both can set up explosive pass-catchers and keep the chains moving — but neither profiles as a true ceiling-raiser at football's most important position. Limited arm talent, shaky poise under pressure, these are the faults that keep average quarterbacks from the highest honors at the position.
Now, much like the Dolphins, the 49ers are locked into a depleted core that will continue to pump out diminishing returns. The playoffs are within reach, sure, but do not expect Purdy to deliver a Lombardi Trophy to the Bay. It's worth noting that all six quarterbacks ahead of him on the salary list have a combined zero rings between them. That is not a coincidence.