The NCAA Tournament bracket is set. As expected, the SEC dominated bids, but there are plenty of viable Cinderellas lurking in the shadows. Every year, we see a few contenders kneecapped by unlucky draws. Even the No. 1 seeds are vulnerable to challenging matchups and stacked bracket groups.
It will be no different this time around. There has already been plenty of controversy around which teams the committee let in (North Carolina) and which teams the committee left out (West Virginia). Perhaps more egregious, however, is how the committee set up certain top-ranked teams for a premature demise.
March Madness is the season of upsets. Nobody knows exactly how things will unfold in the days and weeks to come. What we do know is that lower seeds will fall eventually, some much sooner than folks expect. Don't be shocked if these teams in particular are on a flight home within days, rather than weeks.
UConn Huskies, No. 8 seed
We are stretching the "top seed" prompt a bit, but the UConn Huskies are two-time reigning champs, which comes with a natural baseline of expectation. Dan Hurley is a tremendous, detail-oriented head coach. His team will be ready for the moment.
That seed, UConn is stepping into a tricky 8-9 matchup against Porter Moser's Oklahoma. The Sooners hail from the rough and tumble SEC, which means they have plenty of experience against high-level opponents. Oklahoma also has an ace up its sleeve in the form of freshman point guard Jeremiah Fears, who was engineered in a lab to give this UConn team fits.
For all the talent on the Huskies roster, this is a fairly new group. The entire starting five from last year's title team, save for Alex Karaban, left for the NBA. That has left UConn vulnerable, and where the Huskies struggle most is on the perimeter defensively. This team does not contain high-octane guards very well. Fears, at 18 years old, has been one of the most dominant heliocentric guard creators in college basketball. There have been bumps in the road, but when he's on, he's on. And this UConn defense won't provide much resistance.
If Fears is able to get downhill and live in the paint, don't be shocked if the two-time champs are sent packing early. The Sooners are not the most talented team top to bottom, but Fears has a certain aura about him and Oklahoma has the matchup advantage where it counts.
Missouri Tigers, No. 5 seed
What about an SEC team in trouble?
It has been an incredible season for Dennis Gates and the Missouri Tigers, a dominant offensive unit helmed by an improbable collection of breakout stars. After the unmitigated disaster of last season, the Tigers are a top-five offense with enough defense to get through a few rounds.
Mark Mitchell, Caleb Grill, and Tony Perkins can all fill it up in a hurry. Mitchell has been around the block a couple times with Duke, while Missouri's backcourt (which also features defensive stalwart Anthony Robinson II) can go toe-to-toe with the very best in the tournament. Unfortunately, their first round draw — in the vaunted, always volatile 5-12 matchup — is Drake, a Cinderella team with major firepower.
The Bulldogs have defended an an exceptionally high level of late under new head coach Ben McCollum, a four-time champion at the D-II level. Drake has also a secret weapon in Bennett Stirtz, the All-American point guard whose on-ball shake and impeccable feel make him incredibly difficult to contain. Drake won 30 games this season.
It's fair to wonder how it all holds up against SEC athletes, but Stirtz was built for this moment. After such an improbable run following the departure of Darian DeVries (as well as his superstar son, Tucker), this Drake team is ready for a deep run.
Michigan Wolverines, No. 5 seed
Again, we arrive at the 5-12 matchup. Michigan just won the Big Ten Tournament and appears to have all the necessary ammo for a deep run. Danny Wolf led Yale past Auburn in the 4-13 matchup last season. Now, he's primed to help a more talented Michigan team stake its claim in 2025.
That said, the Wolverines experienced quite a spiral in the final month of the regular season. It's fair to wonder if this Michigan team has the cohesion and momentum necessary to mount a truly consistent run. Factor in a tough matchup with red-hot UC San Diego, a team riding the longest win streak in men's college basketball (15 games), and "Let's Go Blue" could turn into "I'm So Blue" in record time.
UC San Diego dominated the Big West, with the conference's top offense and defense. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is an unconventional star, but that's what March is made for — uncommon heroes, the likes of which don't get enough love during the grind of regular season basketball. That Trojans team feels especially primed for a Cinderella run.
Even if Michigan does outlast its feisty first opponent, the Wolverines are on the toughest side of the bracket, forced to go through the likes of Auburn, Michigan State, or Iowa State just to reach the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin Badgers, No. 3 seed
The Wisconsin Badgers are back in the NCAA title mix, but we should probably proceed with some skepticism. This team lost three of its last five and was the beneficiary of an atypically easy schedule in the Big Ten, facing Michigan and Michigan State just once (and losing both games). The Badgers also lost to Maryland and Oregon, with the latter now situated in their corner of the bracket as the No. 5 seed.
John Tonje looks the part of a March star, but the Badgers rely on the Missouri transfer an inordinate amount, and he struggled during their late-season slide. Wisconsin also has a tough draw, starting with their first round matchup against the No. 14 seed Montana Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15, hitting their stride at an opportune moment. Montana's starting lineup is loaded, averaging 125.7 points per 100 possessions, per ESPN. Wisconsin is a breakneck team capable of putting points on the board in droves, but Montana is one of the few mid-major programs with the firepower necessary to combat that.
If Wisconsin does get past the first round, Oregon isn't their only looming threat. The East bracket is stuffed with quality opponents, with Arizona, Alabama, and Duke all in line. The Crimson Tide went deep last season. Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils are no joke. Arizona has seen Wisconsin this season in conference play. It's a treacherous path to the top for the Badgers.
Auburn Tigers, No. 1 seed
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and deservedly so, but there are some red flags here. We shouldn't expect the Tigers to lose in the first round or anything crazy, but for all it took to achieve the ranking of No. 1 overall, it sure does feel like the committee left Auburn in a tricky spot.
A potential second round matchup with ACC runner-up Louisville or Big East runner-up Creighton presents no small challenge. Then, Auburn has to contend with the likes of Michigan State and red-hot Jase Richardson, led by a seasoned tournament coach in Tom Izzo. Texas A&M and Ole Miss ran the same SEC gauntlet Auburn did this season. A&M happened to beat Auburn a couple weeks ago, and the Rebels are waiting their turn. You can check above for the difficulty of the 5-12 seeds in Michigan and UC San Diego.
Auburn lost to Yale in the first round last season. Lo and behold, here is Yale on their side of the bracket again. Danny Wolf, key to that Yale win, now plays for Michigan. Auburn has also lost three of its last four, something no NCAA champion has ever done. Ever.
Johni Broome might be the best player in college basketball, and this Auburn team has earned its seeding in college hoops' toughest conference. That said, the odds are stacked against the Tigers right now. Bruce Pearl's team will find no cakewalk if they want to cap off a magical season with a run to immortality.