The No. 3 Florida Gators saw their six-game winning streak end on Tuesday night with a shocking 88-83 loss to Georgia. The upset to the Bulldogs snapped Florida's 12-game winning streak in the series and was only the fifth conference win in 15 games for a Georgia team firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Prior to the loss, the Gators had positioned themselves as a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament due to their 14 wins against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This is also a team that has defeated two No. 1 teams — Tennessee and Auburn — during a loaded SEC slate.
The road loss in Athens — one in which the Gators trailed 51-35 at the half and by as many as 26 — could be viewed as a surprise to many due to the Bulldogs' 17-11 record that currently has them as a bottom-four team in the league. However, keep in mind how stacked the SEC is from top to bottom" Unlike other power conferences like the Big East and ACC which only have four teams projected in the NCAA Tournament field, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has 13 SEC teams in his latest Bracketology that was released on Tuesday morning.
The most teams from one conference to make the NCAA Tournament is 11, which the old Big East accomplished when it sent 11 of its 16 teams to the Big Dance back in 2011. If the SEC were to get 13 teams in, that would be nothing short of phenomenal. With Oklahoma and Arkansas currently in Lunardi's Last Four In and Georgia in the Next Four Out before its win over Florida on Tuesday, there is a realistic chance the league could get up to 14 teams in, although a lot would have to go right for that to happen.
While the bubble talk is fascinating, so, too, is the discussion surrounding who the No. 1 seeds will be when Selection Sunday rolls around in just over two weeks. Lunardi's most recent Bracketology has Auburn, Duke, Florida and Alabama as the No. 1 seeds with Michigan State, Tennessee, Iowa State and Houston as the two-seeds. The Gators' most recent loss dings that hope a bit, but there's plenty of season to go.
Are Florida's hopes of a No. 1 seed dashed after loss to Georgia?
Compared to the other No. 1 seeds, Florida has the fewest Quad 1 wins with five (for reference, Auburn and Alabama have the most in Division I with 14 and 10, respectively). Among Lunardi's current four No. 1 seeds, only Alabama has more losses (five) than Florida does, while the Gators also benefitted from a relatively soft non-conference schedule. But while Florida might have the weakest case for a one seed, can anyone take it from them over the next two weeks?
Looking at the current projected two seeds, only Houston is ranked ahead of Florida in NET rankings (third) with seven Quad 1 wins. However, Tennessee is only one spot below the Gators and has nine Quad 1 wins. Another factor to consider is the depth of the SEC and how it translates to the SEC Tournament: While the quality of opponents gives Florida more opportunities to strengthen its resume, that depth also means a team like the Gators has a greater chance of losing early compared to other leagues.
If the Gators were to win the SEC, there should be no argument for them being anything besides a one seed. But if, for instance, Florida falls short of the conference title or even loses another game in the regular season — they still have Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss on tap — that would further open the door for a team like SEC foe Tennessee to take that spot.
Let's also not forget about Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans. With back-to-back wins over ranked opponents, Michigan State has eight Quad 1 wins to its resume. The Houston Cougars, who have already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 regular-season title, may have the best chance of any team to knock Florida off the top seed line, assuming they take care of business the rest of the way.
This will all become clearer as the conference tournaments approach and teams get eliminated. For Florida, specifically, games against No. 12 Texas A&M and No. 6 Alabama will be crucial toward its seeding. If it can take care of business in those games, it would be hard to dispute Florida's case as a one seed when you look at the season as a whole, even before the SEC tourney begins.