The Toronto Blue Jays missed their last chance to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prior to the start of spring training. Guerrero Jr.'s final asking price was apparently close to $600 million, per the Blue Jays infielder himself. Vladdy is a tremendous player, but Toronto front office executive Ross Atkins is willing to bet he's not worth that much on the open market.
At the same time, the Blue Jays have had a tough go of it in MLB free agency the last two years. Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto used Toronto as leverage, only to bail to the coasts at the last minute. Guerrero Jr. could follow the same theme if the Blue Jays don't sign him while they have the chance.
Yet, Atkins made the right call in calling Guerrero Jr.'s bluff. $600 million is a lot to pay for a one-dimensional player, especially when that player does not project as a plus defender or baserunner in the years to come. Vladdy is a tremendous hitter, but he also has three seasons with a sub-2.00 WAR. He has been hit or miss so far in his brief MLB career, and while he is undoubtedly a star and perennial MVP candidate, the Blue Jays can make up for his production with $400 million or less. Toronto isn't afraid to spend. They are afraid to be hamstrung by one player.
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Toronto Blue Jays should listen to Mets advice with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
This is where the Mets come in. New York signed Juan Soto to a $765 million contract this winter, which reset the market for star players. They have also been transparent about how this will impact their spending next winter and moving forward. While New York makes a lot of sense for Guerrero Jr., it is not the Mets that will outbid other teams to the tune of $600 million for Vladdy. I'd check crosstown if I were Vladdy or his representation.
Guerrero Jr. made the argument for his $600 million contract as "much less than Soto," but he also has to realize that most owners are not Steve Cohen. If even Cohen is backing off, that is not a good sign for Guerrero Jr.'s free agency.
The Mets negotiations with Pete Alonso are a good example for Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays. The Mets did not back off their demands, and eventually Alonso followed suit and took their offer.
Guerrero Jr.'s initial offer will be far higher than Alonso's, but they should let the market do the talking, rather than Vladdy. Juan Soto is a generational talent – arguably the Ted Williams of his age – while Guerrero Jr. is a fine player in his prime. There is a difference.