3 decisions Blue Jays can make to avoid a Shohei Ohtani-sized mistake with Juan Soto

The Toronto Blue Jays are expected to throw a lot of money at Juan Soto this winter in hopes of luring the four-time All-Star north of the border. It's an exciting possibility, and it would really instill a sense of parity in the ultra-competitive American League.

There's only one issue. Nobody actually believes the Blue Jays can pull this off.

Toronto was famously in the mix for Shohei Ohtani last offseason. At one point, the Blue Jays were even considered the favorites to land Ohtani, with fans diligently tracking flights out of L.A. as speculation mounted. In the end, however, the Blue Jays lost that race to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who inked Ohtani to a historic 10-year, $700 million contract.

The Blue Jays were nothing but leverage to drive up the Dodgers' price. Ohtani was never going to Toronto, whether he admits it or not. After that, the Blue Jays made a run at trade candidate Juan Soto, but lost that race, too. He landed with the New York Yankees, a doubly cruel twist of fate.

New York ended up in the World Series this season while Toronto spiraled to the bottom of the AL East standings. Soto is a free agent now, though, and he has opened the door to all 30 teams. Toronto is expected to commence an earnest attempt to sign the Dominican superstar, who could command a contract in the same $700 million ballpark as Ohtani.

Here's how the Blue Jays can actually pull this thing off.

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3. Blue Jays cannot cheap out when the moment comes to sign Juan Soto

The latest reporting suggests at least $700 million for Juan Soto on his next contract. That is what the 26-year-old will ask for, at least, and there's no reason to think he won't get it. With the MLB's four most financially ambitious teams — Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Phillies — all connected to Soto, that tab is going to run up expeditiously. The Blue Jays can't blink when it comes time to put an offer sheet on the table.

Toronto was willing to put up $700 million for Ohtani. Is there similar motivation for Soto? And, what if it takes something above and beyond? One has to wonder if we'd be having a different conversation right now if had Toronto offered $750 million to Ohtani. Oftentimes the top bid wins, and Soto is a client of Scott Boras. If the Blue Jays really want to impress the four-time Silver Slugger, it could be as simple as submitting the top offer. Nothing says commitment quite like pushing the bidding past where even Steve Cohen is comfortable.

Now, it's hard to believe that Toronto would actually outbid the Mets or Yankees outright. It just doesn't happen very often. Soto is a special talent, however, and it's clear the Blue Jays are desperate to put a winning product on the field. Ross Atkins kept his GM job against the will of the fanbase this winter. His seat will start to scorch if the Blue Jays can't meaningfully improve their situation. Adding Soto would immediately launch Toronto into the postseason conversation.

There's a nonzero chance that Soto signs the largest guaranteed contract in MLB history this winter, without the major deferrals that defined Ohtani's contract in LA. If Toronto is comfortable inching north of $700 million to install Soto as the face of the franchise, odds are he will listen.

2. Blue Jays should target Juan Soto's Yankees teammates as well

Even if the Blue Jays hand Juan Soto a blank check, the roster needs more work. Soto's bat can paper over a lot of flaws, but Toronto finished this past season 14 games below .500 — not the sort of deficit a single player can erase. It will require a more robust free agent haul.

If the Blue Jays want to go all-out to court Soto, the best method to improve the roster in a way conducive to that goal is to target Soto's former teammates. The Yankees have a ton of free agents this winter besides Soto. I'm not saying the Blue Jays are going to pay Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, but names like Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, and Clay Holmes could all appeal to Toronto.

The Blue Jays need pitching depth. Clay Holmes was a featured weapon in the New York bullpen. Anthony Rizzo, for example, is a free agent. He was a valued leader in the Yankees locker room and he surely has a meaningful rapport with Soto. The Blue Jays have discussed moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base. Why not add Rizzo at first, flip Guerrero to a more valuable position, and use Rizzo as a recruitment chip in the Soto sweepstakes? That, folks, is called a strategy.

Toronto can basically twist the knife deeper in the Yankees with each successive move here. Just imagine the Blue Jays siphoning away multiple key pieces from a New York World Series team, potentially leading to Toronto's own deep postseason run. That's the type of offseason Blue Jays fans dream about.

1. Blue Jays need to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to convince Juan Soto to sign

Juan Soto wants a bunch of money, but he also wants a chance to win at the highest level. The Yankees were in the World Series. The Dodgers won the World Series. The Mets were in the NLCS and never shy away from aggressive spending. The Phillies are an October staple. These teams all can pitch Soto on winning big and winning often.

The Blue Jays, again, were 14 games below .500 this season as rumors of locker room turmoil and combustive trades circulated. How can Toronto convince Soto that he will have a competitive roster not only in 2025, but for the duration of his decade-long contract? It starts with extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

There is no doubt that Toronto can put star-power in Soto's orbit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming off one of the best hitting seasons in recent memory, slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI. He'd have been an MVP candidate if the Blue Jays were a better team. Guerrero has expressed his desire to stick in Toronto long term, but he's approaching the final year of his contract without an extension.

Hammering out a long-term deal for Guerrero would guarantee Soto at least one All-Star running mate for the foreseeable future. At 25 years old, Guerrero's prime should align nicely with Soto's. That is actually one hell of a combination to build around. Guerrero won't settle for anything below market value, which could mean Toronto needs to pull a Dodgers and offer more than $1 billion in financial guarantees between Soto and Guerrero. If the Blue Jays front office is willing to commit that level of resources to field a winner, Soto ought to feel good about where he's going.

It's hard to imagine Soto passing up so many marquee franchises to sign with Toronto, but if the Blue Jays are truly serious, there are ways to win this bidding war.