The NCAA Tournament bracket is officially set. It's March Madness, which means weeks of quality basketball and, most importantly, stunning upsets.
Few teams are more beloved in the basketball community than a mid-major underdog that catches heat at the right time and pushes deep into March. There are plenty of candidates in 2025, as well as traditional powerhouses who are seeded a little too low.
Much has been made of the atypically strong group of No. 1 seeds, with Duke, Auburn, Houston, and Florida all feeling like viable candidates to go the distance. There will be a lot of brackets with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, or perhaps a smattering of No. 1s and No. 2s, which is totally valid. This feels like a year when chalk is a relatively smart strategy.
That said, we know how this tournament tends to unfold. There will be surprises aplenty, and the beauty of analytics — such as those found on KenPom, a paragon of college hoops mathematics — is that they can help us predict some of those upsets ahead of time.
Let's dive into four matchups slated for the opening week of March Madness that could end in disaster for the "favorites."
Numbers in parenthesis represent a team's rank among all college basketball teams in a specific analytic category.
Colorado State has all the momentum — and looks better than 5-seed Memphis on paper
No. 12 Colorado State Rams
- NetReg: +17.29 (42)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 98.9
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 116.2
No. 5 Memphis Tigers
- NetRtg: +15.35 (51)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 97.8
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 113.1
Penny Hardaway earned AAC Coach of the Year honors for Memphis, a stout defensive unit with ample star power. There's a path to the Elite Eight for this Tigers team, but Memphis is already at a disadvantage. Their backcourt looks awfully thin, with star point guard Tyrese Hunter's status in flux due to a foot injury. Haradaway said it would take "a prayer and then some" for Hunter to suit up in Memphis' opening match with Colorado State.
So, the Rams already hold an unexpected edge. And, per KenPom, Colorado State has been the more efficient and impactful team overall, led by the heroic efforts of senior wing Nique Clifford. Without an incredible finish to the regular season and the Mountain West Tournament from Clifford, we wouldn't even be talking about the Rams. They are a classic bid thief — a late riser in March with the potential to bust more than a few brackets.
Clifford has touched every area of the game in recent weeks for the Rams. He's an efficient No. 1 scorer, a rangy and versatile defender, a committed rebounder, and even a better-than-advertised playmaker. Colorado State is a solid defense in its own right, but is led by an explosive offense, which also features talented wings Jaylen Crocker-Johnson and Rashaan Mbemba.
Rarely does KenPom so clearly paint the underdog as the favorite — especially not when the so-called underdog is seven seeds lower. Memphis has the chops to pull this one out, but Colorado State is a smart pick on your bracket.
VCU's stout defense could put BYU in an early grave
No. 11 VCU Rams
- NetRtg: +20.61 (30)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 95.7
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 116.3
No. 6 BYU Cougars
- NetRtg: +22.39 (24)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 100.6
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 123.0
BYU ranks among the very best offensive teams in college basketball over the last month, but it's fair to wonder if new head coach Kevin Young has his team prepared for a run at immortality. This Cougars team still has its flaws, from a leaky defense to a perpetually unreliable star point guard in Egor Demin.
In comes VCU, a team ranked much higher by KenPom's net rating than their No. 11 seed would suggest. Head coach Ryan Odom famously led UMBC past Virginia a few years back to become the first ever No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed. Since then, he has led two more D-I programs to March Madness, with the Rams program no stranger to Cinderella runs.
VCU's offense just does not compare to BYU, but the game tends to slow down in March. Elite defenses often rule the day, and few teams are more connected and enveloping on that end of the floor than the Rams. Luke Bamgboye is quietly one of the best rim protectors in college basketball and VCU's perimeter defenders will stick to Demin like glue, something the talented 19-year-old does not always handle well. Don't be shocked if the Rams are in for another lengthy stint in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina has more than enough talent to put Ole Miss on the bus home
No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels
- NetRtg: +19.55 (33)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 99.3
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 118.9
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- NetRtg: +22.09 (26)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 95.8
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 117.8
Ole Miss put together an incredibly balanced season in the challenging SEC, so there's no knocking the Rebels' case. That said, Ole Miss is also a smallish team with limitations in the scoring department, made up for with impressive ball security and a generally poker-faced approach from the entire roster.
North Carolina has a bit more explosive potential. It has been a struggle against top-ranked opponents all season for the Tar Heels, but while it's easy to question UNC's merits, it's hard to deny their potential to make a deep run. That is, assuming North Carolina can get past San Diego State in their Play-In game.
Hubert Davis' squad has been picking up momentum at the right time. Granted, Cooper Flagg was not available, but UNC was a boneheaded, last-second mistake away from potentially unseating Duke in the ACC Tournament. The margin here is quite small in terms of overall efficiency on KenPom, and UNC has tried and true March stars, like R.J. Davis. I'd be hesitant to bet against the Tar Heels.
Gonzaga is a championship contender disguised as the No. 8 seed, which sucks for Houston
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
- NetRtg: +27.29 (9)
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 96.3
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 123.6
No. 1 Houston Cougars
- NetRtg: +35.44
- Adjusted Def. Efficiency: 87.8
- Adjusted Off. Efficiency: 123.2
I'll be completely transparant here: I have Houston winning the whole shebang. The Cougars have been a No. 1 seed for three straight years. Kelvin Sampson is one of the very best coaches in college basketball, and this is easily the best team he has assembled.
Houston has been a disappointment in recent March Madness runs, but those teams didn't feature a red-hot L.J. Cryer blossoming into one of the best perimeter scorers in college basketball, nor did they feel quite this complete. Injuries could complicate the situation, but Houston is a defensive juggernaut — led by all-world stopper and mini-rim protector JoJo Tugler — with the offense to hang with college basketball's elite units.
That said, Houston is also the most likely No. 1 seed to get bounced in the first weekend by virtue of some unfortunate seeding. Gonzaga sits dauntingly in the No. 8 slot, despite owning the ninth-best net rating in all of college hoops, per KenPom. Mark Few has a long track record of success in March and this Zags team is far too underrated.
It has been a struggle against top-ranked teams for Gonzaga this season, but betting against this program in the NCAA Tournament is always a risk. The Bulldogs excel on both ends and have a lineup peppered with experienced veterans, such as Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman, who form one of the very best backcourts in college basketball.