College Football Playoff: 7 non-playoff teams with viable at-large chances in 2025

This is never going to happen. I have covered college football long enough to know that the usual suspects are always playoff contenders. Of the 12 teams who made it this past year, I see five teams as locks (Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas), four that are close (Arizona State, Clemson, Oregon and Tennessee) and three who may not make it in (Boise State, Indiana and SMU). But that doesn't mean it's not fun to think about.

I wrote about this earlier in the week by projecting my 12-team field for next year. Yes, I have a few new entrants, but not as many as I would have liked. While I like Iowa State, Miami (OH) and South Carolina to essentially take the spots that were occupied by SMU, Boise State and Indiana in some capacity, the rest of the playoff field remains largely the same. I know that it will look different later.

For those who need a refresher, this is my way-too-early College Football Playoff field prediction.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC champion)
3. Clemson Tigers (Projected ACC champion)
4. Iowa State Cyclones (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national independent at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten at-large)
10. South Carolina Gamecocks (Projected SEC at-large)
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12 at-large)
12. Miami RedHawks (Projected MAC/Group of Five champion)

With those 12 teams projected to get in by yours truly right now, here are my first four teams out of it.

• 13. LSU Tigers (SEC)
• 14. Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten)
• 15. Florida Gators (SEC)
• 16. Louisville Cardinals (ACC runner-up)

Before we begin with this funky exercise, these would be my five non-playoff teams to get AQ spots.

• ACC: Louisville Cardinals
• Big Ten: Illinois Fighting Illini
• Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones
• SEC: LSU Tigers
• Group of Five: Miami RedHawks (MAC)

With those five teams getting in and the 12 who made it last year out, who are the magnificent seven?

South Carolina Gamecocks

I have South Carolina as one of my three new entrants into the College Football Playoff field next year. Shane Beamer has his program rolling. While he did lose Dowell Loggains to the Appalachian State job, LaNorris Sellers could be college football's next Cam Newton. He might be my way-too-early pick to win the Heisman Trophy, joining George Rogers as the only two Gamecocks to ever win the award.

South Carolina may be my projected No. 10 seed going in, higher than LSU as my first team out at No. 13. However, the reason I picked LSU over South Carolina to win the SEC in this hypothetical is one, South Carolina has never done it before, and two, LSU has a higher ceiling as a program. Every so often, the Bayou Bengals field a team nobody can keep up with. Look no further than the 2019 team.

With LSU essentially replacing Georgia in this exercise, I would have South Carolina replace Texas.

Florida Gators

I have the Florida Gators as one of my first four teams out at No. 15. D.J. Lagway could emerge as the best player in the SEC after next season. Billy Napier showed us all a ton by not only surviving the toughest gauntlet in college football, but coming out of the other side so much better for it. While Florida could beat my beloved Georgia Bulldogs next season, I do not think they are quite ready yet for the CFP leap.

The year for Florida to finally make the Playoff would have to be 2026 in my estimation. That being said, they are probably going to start next season ranked and stay inside the top 25 throughout. If this team wins around 10 games, the Gators will make the Playoff. Right now, I have them winning closer to eight or nine than getting into double digits. I am bullish on this team, so watch out for them.

In this exercise, Florida would replace Tennessee as the third SEC team into the playoff field in 2025.

Michigan Wolverines

I expect for Michigan to be markedly better next year. This is Sherrone Moore's team now. The Jim Harbaugh exodus is no longer going to hold this program back. As long as the Wolverines get halfway decent quarterback play, they will be in the mix to win around nine or 10 games. 10 wins gets them into the playoff, but I think they are probably closer to eight or nine. They are Florida of the Big Ten.

Since I have Illinois winning the Big Ten in this strange exercise, I need to have at least two more Big Ten teams to replace the likes of Ohio State and Penn State. The Indiana bid is one of two that is reserved for either the Big Ten or SEC as a fourth at-large in either league. I think that one may go to an SEC team in this exercise. For now, I feel very comfortable believing in Michigan as a contender.

Since Illinois replaces Oregon, that would mean Michigan would replace — you guessed it — Ohio State.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Since I essentially need a third Big Ten team in this exercise, give me Nebraska as the second at-large to come out of that league in this hypothetical exercise. We know that Nebraska cares a ton about this program. With it being Dylan Raiola's second season under center, as well as athletic director Troy Dannen unpacking his bags in Lincoln like he did not in Seattle, give me the Matt Rhule pop year!

This will be Rhule's third year on the job. In year three at both Temple and Baylor, Rhule's teams won double digit games. Baylor won the Big 12 and made it to the Sugar Bowl. So yes, I am quite high on the Huskers this season and going forward. I do not have them as a serious playoff threat next season, but I expect for them to be ranked inside of the top 25 throughout. This is a top-20 team.

Nebraska would take the playoff spot of Penn State in this exercise, which is Rhule's alma mater.

Miami Hurricanes

I may not have had Miami in the playoff field initially, or even among my first four teams out, but I am keeping close tabs on them nonetheless. My FanSided.com colleague and False Start co-host Cody Williams said he has concerns about the Hurricanes defense leveling up. We both like Carson Beck, but we do worry about him coming back from a major elbow injury. Miami could go either way here.

Although I like Louisville more than Miami, the Canes are the same cluster of teams with the Cardinals, Georgia Tech and I guess SMU as teams to watch out for in the ACC beyond Clemson asserting its dominance over everyone. Thus, I would not be shocked if any college football prognosticator of note has the Hurricanes in as a playoff team next year. I need some convincing...

In this exercise, I would say Miami is taking the spot of Notre Dame more so than it would be SMU.

Kansas State Wildcats

Just because I like Iowa State to win the Big 12 does not mean I am down on Kansas State. This will be Avery Johnson's second season as a starter. We all know how great of a head coach Chris Klieman is. So I would be shocked if K-State won the Big 12 next season, just like it would not shock me if either Iowa State won it or Arizona State repeated. As you can see, I have two Big 12 teams making it.

Right now, I have Iowa State winning the Big 12 and Arizona State getting the last at-large seed. Since I cannot put Arizona State into the playoff in this exercise, Kansas State fits the bill. It may be months out, but I am so freaking excited for Farmageddon to be played overseas in Dublin in Week 0. It is one of the sport's most underrated rivalries. Dublin will run out of Busch Light before toe meets leather.

Kansas State would be taking the ACC/Big 12/Notre Dame spot that belonged to SMU last season.

Texas A&M Aggies

We have arrived at the last team in the brand-new 12-team field in this exercise. I settled on Texas A&M over Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss as the fourth SEC team to get in. As you can see, I had four SEC teams getting in this year, while the Big Ten only got in three. In some years, that combined number could be as low as six (probably not), but it will never exceed nine in any playoff field.

This will be year two of Mike Elko leading the charge in College Station. Marcel Reed will be back at quarterback, and so will Collin Klein as the offensive coordinator. While I think Texas A&M will be ranked for most of — it not all — of the college football season, I do wonder if other teams on the come up like Florida have passed them by. Texas A&M has made New Year's Six bowls before. It can happen.

With Texas A&M getting the last at-large berth, they take the Big Ten/SEC spot occupied by Indiana.

So where does that leave us? Could we possibly put forth an entire playoff field with 12 new teams?

What a bizarro world College Football Playoff bracket could look like

Based on this exercise and the five new conference champions, here is the bizzaro playoff bracket.

1. LSU Tigers (Projected SEC champion)
2. Iowa State Cyclones (Projected Big 12 champion)
3. Louisville Cardinals (Projected ACC champion)
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (Projected Big Ten champion)
5. South Carolina Gamecocks (Projected SEC runner-up)
6. Florida Gators (Projected SEC at-large)
7. Michigan Wolverines (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC runner-up)
10. Kansas State Wildcats (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
11. Texas A&M Aggies (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Miami RedHawks (Projected MAC/Group of Five champion)

As you can see, I went with seeds No. 5-11 in order while writing this to make it easier. As far as seeding the five highest-ranked conference champions in this exercise, I looked at it through the lens of seeing which new champion has the best shot of actually making it in before reseeding it. Yes, the Big Ten champion probably ends up being a top-two seed in most instances, but not if Illinois wins it.

In this format, LSU would get a bye to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC champion, Iowa State would get a bye to the Cotton Bowl as the Big 12 champion, Louisville would get a bye to the Orange Bowl as the ACC champion and Illinois would get a bye to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champion. Keep in mind that the Peach and Fiesta Bowls would serve as the national semifinals in this year's playoff rotation.

From there, the first-round games would be as follows in the bizzaro playoff bracket. No. 5 South Carolina would host No. 12 Miami (OH). No. 6 Florida would host No. 11 Texas &M. No. 7 Michigan would host No. 10 Kansas State. And No. 8 Nebraska would host No. 9 Miami in a game that would feel very Orange Bowl-y from yesteryear. Dennis Erickson and Tom Osborne, eat your hearts out!

Overall, I had so much fun putting this together. It completely broke my brain. However, seeing any of these teams sorted into the playoff field does not seem all that strange. The weirdest one is probably Illinois winning the Big Ten and getting the No. 4 seed, but what's to stop them from being this year's Indiana or SMU as one of the last at-large teams in? College football is in great shape now.

I would not be shocked if potentially five of these 12 teams end up making the playoff field in 2025.