Red Flags: College football upset picks, Week 7 — Ohio State, Texas not alone on upset alert

Don't say that you weren't warned that the calm before the storm in college football is never actually calm as it pertains to upsets. In our weekly upset picks last week, we may not have had Alabama losing to Vanderbilt (who did, really?), but we did put Tennessee on upset alert while also having UNLV and Louisville falling in upset fashion. And we would've gone 4-1 with our upset picks if the refs at Cal didn't gift Miami the final, game-winning possession.

Now we move on to one of the main-course Saturdays of the 2024 college football season. We have three monster ranked-vs-ranked matchups on the schedule, which is both exciting and prime for an upset. But where it gets even more interesting is that there are other danger spots that aren't ranked teams facing their biggest tests to date — so much so that we don't even have the Ole Miss Rebels losing to the LSU Tigers as an upset pick this week (maybe I'm wrong but, even in Death Valley, I have far more faith in Lane Kiffin's team).

So where will we be going for our Week 7 college football upset picks? We start on Friday with a Big 12 matchup that's looking juicier by the day and then go all the way into the late-night slate on Saturday. Make no mistake, Ohio State and Texas could be in trouble but those aren't the only places we see the Red Flags flying.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 9-16

5. Utah Utes

Opponent: at Arizona State | Time: Friday, Oct. 11, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: UTAH - 5.5

Some would probably just call this a spite upset pick and, frankly, it probably is. But I'm sick and tired of the games Kyle Whittingham continues to play with starting quarterback Cam Rising. He's still not returned from a finger injury suffered early in the year, one that allegedly was only going to keep him out for a week or two.

When it comes to the Utes, however, this offense is inept when comparing it to what it looks like with Rising running the show. So now they have to go on the road to Tempe to face an Arizona State team that has quietly been one of teh most pleasant surprises of the season as we reach the midway point.

The Sun Devils have quietly been a top-third defense by Success Rate and EPA per play this season while the offense is 15th in EPA per rush. Even more quiet has been the Utes defense slipping outside of the Top 50 in defensive EPA per rush. I think Arizona State controls this game and, with it in Tempe, they pull off the upset as Isaac Wilson can't get it done (assuming he starts, though who knows at this point).

4. Kansas State Wildcats

Opponent: at Colorado | Time: Saturday, Oct. 12, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: KSU -3.5

Speaking of Big 12 teams that we might need to keep an eye on a little more seriously, the Colorado Buffaloes are simply a much better football team than they were a year ago, showing far more physicality and diversity in what they're capable of. Oh, and they also happen to be an equal 4-1 to the ranked Kansas State team that's now traveling to Boulder late on Saturday night.

Loss to BYU aside, K-State has started to find its footing behind young Avery Johnson at quarterback. However, the Wildcats offense still isn't much of a threat through the air, which has proven to be a far more effective way of attacking the Buffs this season. In fact, Colorado's most recent win against UCF could provide at least a defensive blueprint to how they can limit Johnson and KSU in this matchup.

On the flip side, my worries about the Kansas State defensive persist and, for all of the blow-hard talk that we've heard out of Boulder, Shedeur Sanders remains one of the best quarterbacks in college football and has no shortage of weaponry around him. Another road underdog (a theme for the week) that I like to pull the upset off on Saturday.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions

Opponent: at USC | Time: Saturday, Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: PSU -3.5

This matchup undeniably lost a lot of its luster with USC's inexplicable falling on its face last week against Minnesota. Having said that, for as high as I've been on the Penn State Nittany Lions this season, the truth of the matter is that this has been far from a perfect run-up to this matchup for James Franklin's team, most notably playing with its food more than anyone wanted to see against UCLA.

There's good reason that Penn State is the road favorite in this game, to be sure. With how poorly the Trojans offensive line has performed this season, the Nittany Lions aggressive and fierce front seven could cause a ton of issues for a relatively immobile Miller Moss and the offense. At the same time, though, the USC defense is improved and it's hard to be fully sure that Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions attack has leveled up as much as we might've thought.

Lincoln Riley, more importantly, has to feel a sense of desperation in this game. I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at the Nittany Lions in this game, particularly on offense. And let's not forget that Big Ten teams have just one win (Indiana over UCLA) ATS this season when traveling to the West Coast. With a small number the oddsmakers have installed, give me USC to bounce back with an upset win of their own after falling outside the Top 25.

2. Texas Longhorns

Opponent: vs. Oklahoma | Time: Saturday, Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TEX -14.5

Based on the eye test, based on the numbers, and based on the results, there is every reason for the Texas Longhorns to come into their vaunted annual rivalry game — albeit 3.5 hours later than we are accustomed to for kickoff — as more than two-touchdown favorites against the Oklahoma Sooners. They are quite clearly the superior team between these now-SEC foes.

Texas will have Quinn Ewers for this matchup but, in reality, the Longhorns would've been fine no matter if it was the veteran or Arch Manning taking the snaps this week. The offense is protected by arguably the best line in college football and a multitude of skill position talent. On top of that, their defense replenished after draft losses and is forceful again as they take on an Oklahoma offense that, whether it was Jackson Arnold or Michael Hawkins Jr., has lacked the juice all year. Furthermore, the Sooners respected defense let Payton Thorne throw for 330+ last time out.

All signs point to a Texas rout. But here's the thing: This is Red River. In the simplest terms and the easiest way to look at this matchup, there are very few normal iterations of this rivalry game that have been played, especially in recent years. So the fact that Texas is as heavy of a favorite as they are in this rivalry clash has to make you wonder if things will get much closer — and scarier if you’re the Longhorns — than anticipated, especially with Steve Sarkisian’s team having a date with Georgia looming next week. 

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Opponent: at 3 Oregon | Time: Saturday, Oct. 12, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) | Spread: OSU -3.5

When the schedule for the 2024 college football season came out, this matchup with the Ohio State Buckeyes going on the road to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks was circled as a game-of-the-year candidate. And based on what the AP Top 25 is telling us as we’ve finally arrived, it could very well live up to that potential as it’s now a matchup between the No. 2 and 3 ranked teams in the country on Saturday. 

Anyone who’s been tuned into the college football world this season, however, can tell you that this game offers a lot more questions than we probably expected. Ohio State has seemingly been on cruise control all season, not once truly being tested, even when they haven’t looked as crisp as you’d have liked. Meanwhile, Oregon has found itself in a couple of surprising dogfights with Idaho and Boise State while also failing to dominate other inferior opponents at times. 

So what does that mean for this game? My gut tells me that Oregon, though unexpectedly, has had to put more on film than would be ideal for them as they try to find the right recipe after moving to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback for Bo Nix and try to get healthy on the offensive line. The Buckeyes and Chip Kelly, meanwhile, could be about to finally open up the playbook and dominate. 

At the same time, though, there have been teams that I thought were playing possum previously just not actually have that extra gear. With this game being in Autzen Stadium and the aforementioned poor track record of traveling west so far this year, we have to put the Buckeyes on upset alert.