Check your math: Numbers back up Cooper Flagg’s case as generational NBA Draft prospect

There wasn't much doubt about Cooper Flagg as the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft going into the season. An early shooting slump led wandering eyes to other elite prospects, such as Rutgers' Dylan Harper, but Flagg's last couple weeks have removed any skepticism surrounding his status as the top prospect in a loaded class.

Flagg is on a historic trajectory at Duke. He set the ACC single-game scoring record for a freshman over the weekend, dropping 42 points on Notre Dame. He's now averaging 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.9 stocks on .479/.345/.806 splits, shouldering the second-highest usage rate among high-major freshmen as an 18-year-old, 6-foot-9 forward.

There are very few holes to poke in Flagg's game at this point. His self-creation looks more polished with each passing week. He's already a brilliant off-ball weapon, willing to settle into a supportive role when asked to. He reads the floor quickly, boasting highly advanced basketball intuition for such a young prospect. Flagg began his freshman campaign at 17 years old, lest we forget.

He's an elite defensive backbone, a legitimate on-ball generator, a dynamic rim-runner and lob threat, a sharp off-ball mover and connector. We often conflate the concept of a "high floor" with "old" or "good shooter." Flagg has an actually high floor. It's exceedingly difficult to picture his career going sideways. Unless he succumbs to an unfortunate and unpredictable injury, Flagg has all the tools for NBA success.

The numbers back it up.

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Stats put Duke's Cooper Flagg in rare territory among recent NBA Draft prospects

The raw stats are mighty impressive, but Flagg's advanced metrics also stand out. He's on track to become the sixth freshman since 2008 to record an offensive box plus-minus greater than 6.0 and a defensive box plus-minus greater than 5.0. His overall BPM this season (14.3) is the best among high-major freshmen by a significant margin (Michigan State's Jase Richardson, in second, sits at 10.0).

That is just one metric (here's a nifty explainer from Basketball Reference), but when the advanced numbers and analytical catch-alls back up the eye test, that is generally a promising sign. Flagg has looked like the most dominant freshman in recent weeks and well, he has been numerically.

The other five freshmen to achieve the benchmarks listed above are Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, Chet Holmgren, and Evan Mobley. All current or future All-Stars making All-NBA impacts. Each prospect has his own unique path — Zion and Chet both have injuries holding them back in the NBA, while Mobley needed time to round into form offensively — but these are, generally, some of the best prospects in recent memory. All have found success in the NBA. This is great company for Flagg to keep.

We are only halfway through the college basketball season, so much can change, but Flagg has quickly separated himself from a crowded pack. The 2025 draft class features several future All-Stars, but Flagg is a tier above. He isn't quite in the same superhuman category as Victor Wembanyama, but when tracking the future faces of NBA basketball, one would be wise to keep Flagg's name in mind.