Corbin Burnes rumors: Massive asking price, two favorites emerge, potential dark horse

Ever since Juan Soto landed his record-smashing $765 million contract with the New York Mets, all eyes have been on Corbin Burnes. He is the most accomplished name left in MLB free agency, coming off his fifth-straight top-10 finish in Cy Young voting. The AL's All-Star starter this past season, Burnes brought much-needed ace qualities to the Baltimore Orioles rotation. And now he's going to cash in.

The belief is that Burnes and Baltimore are destined for a breakup due to his exorbitant price tag. Max Fried just landed a historic $218 million deal with the New York Yankees, the largest contract ever for a left-handed pitcher. Burnes could eclipse that number, with the 30-year-old hoping to anchor a competitive rotation for the next half-decade plus.

Every team should take an interest in Burnes, but only a few can realistically compete for the righty's services. It's unclear exactly when Burnes plans to settle on a new destination, but here is all the latest buzz surrounding the four-time All-Star.

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Angels feel like the most logical dark horse for Corbin Burnes

With several logical landing spots either crossed off the list — Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles — or still in the running, it's hard to find a true "dark horse" with an actual chance to land Corbin Burnes. Most of your standard big spenders, such as the Mets or Dodgers, have already exceeded their spending limits for the winter. There are contenders like the Braves who would love to employ Burnes, but Alex Anthopoulos has never spent on that level.

One proper sleeper merits mentioning, though: the Los Angeles Angels.

We know the Angels are willing to shell out money for star-power when the right opportunity presents itself. We can question how seriously this Los Angeles team plans to contend next season, but Burnes is a SoCal native who might relish the opportunity to pitch on his home soil for the next 5-10 years. With Mike Trout under contract, for better or worse, the Angels can't really commit to bottoming out. So maybe Arte Moreno, Perry Minasian and the front office can talk themselves into a run at Burnes. Few assets promote contention better than elite pitching.

Earlier this year, FanSided's Zachary Rotman dove deep into the logic of Burnes to the Angels:

"To sum up, the Angels have an emerging young core, have played nearly .500 ball for almost three months now, have division rivals trending in the wrong direction, and are the team Burnes grew up rooting for. Arte Moreno is the obvious X-Factor here, but if he is finally willing to spend as he should, why can't this happen?"

All it takes is one serious offer for Burnes to wind up in a Halos uniform. This probably won't happen, but it's not too hard to imagine a world in which the Angels get tired of watching the Dodgers upstage them and land a big fish from the local pond.

Blue Jays, Giants emerge as clear frontrunners in Corbin Burnes sweepstakes

The Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are viewed as the "two favorites" to land Corbin Burnes, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. Toronto has "proven its willingness" to spend with committed pursuits of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, while the Giants are always on the prowl for star talent — and probably tired of getting passed over for more glamorous markets.

A left-field outcome, such as the Angels, is always possible in baseball, but the Giants and Blue Jays are the teams most frequently connected to Burnes. Given the rather expensive nature of his forthcoming contract, one has to imagine the marketplace is limited for a reason. Burnes, 30, did begin to show signs of decline last season, with his trademark cutter losing steam. Not every front office is going to endorse backing up the Brink's truck.

Toronto and San Francisco feel especially desperate.

The Blue Jays are trying to salvage a team on the edge. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are upcoming free agents, Juan Soto said no thanks and the pitching staff is set to lose multiple key contributors over the next couple years. Burnes can operate as a stabilizing force, while also allowing Toronto to stick it to a division rival in Baltimore.

As for the Giants, it's a chance for Burnes to return to the West Coast, for starters. It's also a chance for him to join a team committed to winning for years to come, as evidenced by the significant long-term contracts handed to Matt Chapman and Willy Adames this winter. Logan Webb is a bonafide ace and Robbie Ray is due back healthy in 2025, so Burnes would be joining a fairly sturdy rotation.

Corbin Burnes wants contract in the $245 million range

When you're the best pitcher in a pitcher-friendly market, of course you're going to hold out for a lucrative contract. The number Corbin Burnes and his reps have in mind, however, is sure to make even the most ardent fan's head spin.

According to Mike Feinsand on MLB Network, Burnes is looking for a contract "along the lines of the Stephen Strasburg deal from five years ago."

That contract came out to seven years and $245 million. With Fried getting $218 million over eight years from New York, that feels like a more-than-reasonable request from Burnes. Last season was not without its bumps in the road, but Burnes finished fifth in Cy Young voting, posting a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 32 starts. He allowed five hits and just one earned run across eight innings in his lone postseason start for the O's, to boot.

The stuff is still strong, and the market is endlessly favorable to high-end pitchers. Burnes should have at least a few more years of top billing left. He would instantly elevate and stablize any rotation, so one has to imagine he can get to his desired benchmark of $245 million. Heck, there's a non-zero chance Burnes exceeds it, and exceeds it by a comfortable margin.

It will ultimately come down to just how badly the Blue Jays, Giants,and any dark horses want Burnes. The market for pitching continues to unfurl with each passing day. Roki Sasaki is the next-best option still available, but most of the viable Burnes backup plans, such as Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler or even Fried, are no longer up for grabs. For Toronto, San Francisco, and others, it's getting close to "Burnes or bust" territory.