First Pitch: The surprise team that could upset the field in Corbin Burnes free agency

By the time free agency rolls around, all eyes will be on Juan Soto, and for good reason. Not only is he one of the best players in the game, but he's just 25 years old. It's not so often a 25-year-old superstar becomes available on the open market, but barring an unexpected turn of events, that'll be exactly what happens with Soto.

While Soto's free agency should be fascinating to follow, the fact that Corbin Burnes, one of the best pitchers in the sport, will be a free agent cannot be overlooked. Burnes has had a strong platform season with the Baltimore Orioles, and should fetch a ton of money this offseason.

While the usual big market suspects like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies will surely express interest, and while the Orioles could conceivably make a run at him too, one team makes too much sense for Burnes. That team is the Los Angeles Angels. I know, they're a laughing stock, but just hear me out. There are reasons to believe that the Angels could shock the baseball world and win the Burnes sweepstakes.

The Angels are closer to winning than people realize

This past decade has been one to forget for Angels fans. Despite rostering both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani within the last 10 years, the team hasn't made the postseason since 2014. They haven't even finished with a winning record since 2016. Just about everything that could have gone wrong for this organization, has. At 53-72, chances are, they won't be finishing with a winning record in 2024 either.

While things look bleak on the surface the Angels are closer to winning than people might realize. They've played fairly well for a while now, and while that's easy to ignore, it's important to point out.

The Halos finished the month of May with a 21-36 record. The only teams worse than them record-wise were the Miami Marlins and the Chicago White Sox -- so not the best company. Since then, though, they've gone 32-36. While that's obviously far from stellar, it's a better record than the defending champion Texas Rangers who have gone 31-38 since June 1. It's just 2.0 games worse than the Philadelphia Phillies who currently have the best record in the majors as of this writing. They've gone 33-33 since June 1.

The Angels have managed to play mostly competent baseball for over three months despite getting a total of five games played from Mike Trout, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Robert Stephenson in that span who were all expected to be major contributors to this team. Trout in particular hasn't played since late April and won't return this season.

The AL West is already weak, and should only take another step back

The Angels are a team that can be seen as one slowly on the rise, and it's even more exciting because their division is taking a step back. It was one of the best divisions in baseball last season with three 88+-win teams, but it's been one of the worst this season.

The 68-56 Houston Astros have played incredible baseball since getting off to such a poor start, but they're armed with one of the worst farm systems in the majors (the worst according to MLB Pipeline) and have a slew of players including Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Ryan Pressly all hitting free agency either after this season or next. It's hard to bet against the Astros, but how long can they stay elite with a poor farm and with their core likely not looking the same?

The 64-62 Seattle Mariners have an absurdly loaded starting rotation, but they're only two games over .500 because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. This has been an issue for years now. Can they ever figure it out? If not, how formidable are they?

The Texas Rangers have collapsed following their World Series win last season, have an older roster, and a ton of upcoming free agents as well. The Angels are only 4.5 games back of them this season, who's to say they can't be better than Texas in 2025, especially if they were to sign a pitcher like Burnes? The Oakland Athletics have played much better baseball in the second half, but it's hard to take them seriously when they refuse to ever attempt to make their roster better.

This isn't me saying that the Angels are going to win the AL West in 2024, but if they make an effort to meaningfully improve this offseason while things trend in the wrong direction for their competition, why can't they make things interesting?

The Angels have an exciting core for the first time in years

No, Shohei Ohtani is not an Angel anymore, but for the first time in a long time, it feels as if the Angels have the makings of a strong core. The fact that they've played near-.500 ball for almost three months without Trout and Co. proves that.

23-year-old Zach Neto had just a .449 OPS in the first 21 games of his season, but has been on a tear ever since, slashing .280/.342/.512 with 18 home runs and 56 RBI in his last 100 games played. He's even wreaked havoc on the base paths, as evidenced by his 22 stolen bases. Neto's 137 WRC+ since April 22nd is good for 20th among all qualified hitters in the majors. Not just the American League, but the entire majors. He's been better offensively than All-Stars like Anthony Santander, Riley Greene, and Jaren Duran, just to name a few.

24-year-old Logan O'Hoppe has had a brutal month of August, but is slashing .255/.314/.432 with 17 home runs and 48 RBI in his first full MLB season despite the bad month. He looks like he has the chance to be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors, if he isn't one already.

23-year-old Ben Joyce began the year in the minors and struggled in his first three appearances since getting recalled, but has pitched to a 1.03 ERA in the 22 appearances he's made since. He's allowed just three runs in 26.1 innings of work, holding the opposition to a .159 batting average and .493 OPS. He took over as the team's closer with Carlos Estevez getting traded, and with how he's pitched, it's hard to envision him giving that spot up anytime soon. Armed with a fastball that averages 102.0 mph and a wicked slider, Joyce has a chance to be one of the best closers in the league in short order.

24-year-old Jose Soriano didn't begin the year in the rotation but joined it after two appearances in relief and has been spectacular, posting a 3.36 ERA in 20 starts when used as a starter. He has not allowed more than four earned runs in a single start this season, and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 20 starts overall. Is that good?

Let's not forget other young players like Luis Rengifo, Nolan Schanuel, and Mickey Moniak who have all taken steps forward as the season has progressed. Let's also not forget some exciting prospects like Christian Moore, Caden Dana, and Nelson Rada. Oh yeah, Mike Trout is still there too, if he can ever stay healthy.

Is it the best core in the majors? Of course not. Is it one for Angels fans to get excited about? Absolutely. And it should only get better.

Eventually Arte Moreno has to spend, right?

A Corbin Burnes pursuit will ultimately come down to Arte Moreno. Burnes is going to search for a massive contract, as is his right. His agent, Scott Boras, is going to do his best to seek out the best deal possible. The Angels play in a big market, but they've operated as if they don't with Arte Moreno in charge. That's going to have to change.

The Angels have crept over the luxury tax just twice since Moreno bought the team in 2003. Once was in 2004, just two years removed from their lone World Series title. They barely even went over it that year. The second time was in 2023, but briefly. The Angels exceeded the tax when they bought at last year's trade deadline in a last-ditch effort to entice Shohei Ohtani to stay, but wound up waiving a slew of players to duck under the tax when the team fell out of contention in late August. Of course, Ohtani wound up departing in free agency.

Moreno is public enemy No. 1 among Angels fans. He owns the team, even has them being called the Los Angeles Angels, yet he refuses to go over the luxury tax. He has spent for hitters like Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton, but Moreno historically has shied away from paying frontline starters. Just look at what The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal had to say about Moreno's preferences ($).

"One former Angels executive, granted anonymity so he can speak candidly, believes Moreno’s preference for offense stems from the playoff defeats the Angels suffered in the 2000s to slugging teams — three to the Red Sox, one to the Yankees."

Moreno is citing postseason defeats from decades ago as to why he refuses to spend on pitching. It's maddening, since the Angels have needed pitching for what feels like forever now.

If Moreno truly wants to win as the Angels' owner (and it's fair to question whether he truly does or doesn't), he has to spend. The Angels have the makings of a nice core and should only improve if they don't mess it up, but they also have to spend. One thing they're clearly missing is an ace. Burnes is that guy.

Signing him won't make them World Series favorites, but that shouldn't be the bar. He's only 29 years old. He'll be elite for a while. Signing Burnes would allow the Angels to take a significant leap. Their fans deserve it after over a decade of suffering.

The Angels have one advantage other teams don't

When looking at where a player might sign in free agency, there are all sorts of factors to consider. Money is obviously king. If the Angels don't put forth a competitive offer for Burnes, he won't sign with them.

One advantage that they do have, though, is Burnes' fandom. Burnes grew up an Angels fan idolizing Angels legends such as Nolan Ryan and Jered Weaver.

It won't be an end all be all for Burnes, but if the Angels were to offer Burnes a deal to his liking, don't you think Burnes would want to come home to California to play for the team he grew up rooting for? They were able to convince Brandon Drury, another player who grew up rooting for the Angels, to sign with them ahead of the 2023 season. He even took less money to join them.

To sum up, the Angels have an emerging young core, have played nearly .500 ball for almost three months now, have division rivals trending in the wrong direction, and are the team Burnes grew up rooting for. Arte Moreno is the obvious X-Factor here, but if he is finally willing to spend as he should, why can't this happen?