It’s officially trade deadline season, and the takes are flying. This week on The Moonshot, our MLB insiders weigh in on the biggest questions in baseball: Could Bo Bichette actually get moved? Is Aaron Judge really making a run at .400? Who’s the next can’t-miss prospect getting the call? From bold trade predictions to rising rookies and the Dodgers’ injury crisis, we’re covering everything heating up in MLB.
Welcome to The Moonshot, a weekly newsletter where we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too. This week's panel includes Adam Weinrib, Mark Powell and Robert Murray.
One surprise trade candidate shaking up the 2025 MLB market
Adam Weinrib: Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres. I was tempted to put Zac Gallen here, but I have an odd (and potentially misplaced) faith in the Arizona Diamondbacks passing San Diego in the NL West by mid-July. Robert Murray has primed us in recent weeks that the Padres might go hybrid and sell upper-tier rentals while still filling holes. I believe that’ll be Cease over Michael King.
Robert Murray: Kyle Stowers of the Miami Marlins. I’ll go with think could be moved, not definitely will be moved. But the Marlins had an epic selloff last trade deadline and there could once again be a shortage of sellers in July. I don’t think the Marlins will trade Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez, especially with Alcantara struggling. But if they can get good value for anyone else on the roster, even a guy like Stowers … then that could be something to watch.
Mark Powell: Luis Robert Jr. has disqualified himself from being a ‘surprise’ trade candidate given he’s been floated in rumors for well over a year now. Bo Bichette, in the meantime, has received some backing from the Blue Jays front office but really ought to still be on the trade market. Bichette is in the final year of his deal and there can’t be much money left over in Toronto after they signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. long term.
Who’s the next top MLB prospect getting called up?
Adam Weinrib: Unless the Red Sox are lying, which would never happen, they’re saintly souls who invented baseball, Roman Anthony won’t be up this week, nor will he join Boston on the road. Craig Breslow said he needs to improve his in-zone swings on breaking balls, and that’s totally true. He’s only hitting .846 against them. Can’t have that.
In this vein, I’ll say Jac Caglianone gets the one-way ticket from Omaha before the waffling Red Sox or noxious Pirates (Bubba Chandler) get their manipulatin’ acts together. The man homers every day, so I think he’s good.
Robert Murray: I really want to say Roman Anthony here. I have no idea what the Red Sox are doing not having him up already. But I’ll go with Bubba Chandler, the top pitching prospect in baseball. He is really, really good. Chandler and Paul Skenes will form arguably the most exciting 1-2 punch in baseball – and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chandler made a late push for National League Rookie of the Year.
Mark Powell: The correct answers are the ones given above in Anthony, Chandler and Caglianone. If I had to name one more, I’d run with Andrew Painter, whose injury rehab is going well for the Phillies in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The problem with my hypothesis is Painter’s debut is likely to come in July at the earliest, and all three of the prospects mentioned above really ought to get the call by then. If not, the system is broken.
Could Aaron Judge really hit .400 this season?
Adam Weinrib: He will not hit .400 this season, which means he is a scrub the likes of which we have not seen since … well, Playoff Judge (sorry, sorry, trying to delete it). He’s going to firmly cement himself as the game’s best hitter when the season is said and done, though. Not just the best righty. More dangerous than Shohei Ohtani.
You know how hard it is to guarantee yourself a Hall of Fame spot after playing your rookie season at 25? He’s going to pass 60 bWAR in his ninth full season. He’s done it.
Robert Murray: Judge is ridiculously good and at this point, the $360 million contract he signed in December 2022 looks like a steal. But he won’t hit .400. There will be a stretch where he struggles and his average comes down. That’s not a slight on Judge. That’s just baseball. But let’s appreciate what we are watching here because he’s not just establishing himself as the best player in baseball today. He’s establishing himself as one of the all-time greats.
Mark Powell: Aaron Judge is a masterpiece, but he’s not going to hit .400. In fact, he’s already down into the .390s as of this writing. If I had to guess when this will officially stop being a point of conversation, it’s likely soon. The Yankees face the Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox in their next three series. If Judge’s .400 chase isn’t ancient history by then, it very well could be following a June 10-12 series in Kansas City. The Royals have the second-best team ERA in baseball.
Should the Dodgers still be World Series favorites with 14 pitchers on the injured list?
Adam Weinrib: Yes, considering they won last year’s World Series with a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a struggling Jack Flaherty, and Bryan Cranston. They’re far from an unstoppable juggernaut. In fact, the National League isn’t in that higher tier we feared they’d be entering April. But they’ve done nothing to dissuade me from thinking they’re the most likely champs.
Robert Murray: 100%. They have Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and so many other stars. Yes, they have pitching injuries, and a lot of them. But they’ll get most of these guys back. They have seemingly endless money to spend and a president of baseball operations in Andrew Friedman who is as active as any executive on the trade market.
Mark Powell: Favored? Absolutely, this is a trick question. Los Angeles leads a crowded NL West in spite of these injuries. That being said, if I had to pick an Achilles heel of this superteam it would be the durability of their pitching staff. The Dodgers rank 20th in team ERA, 29th in team WHIP and middle of the pack in batting average against. It’s something to keep an eye on.
Around the horn: Give us one good reason we should read your favorite piece of the week:
Adam Weinrib: I spoke to two-time All-Star Brad Penny, who dished on how he battles with his old head teammates over analytics, the best 18U pitcher he’s worked with on Team USA, and the remarkable wildness of a 1999 AJ Burnett on the Portland Sea Dogs.
Robert Murray: I ranked all the division leaders from contenders to pretenders. It was a good time.
Mark Powell: I spent most of the week covering for my NFL counterpart, so unless you want to read about Pittsburgh Steelers OTAs, I’m going to cheat here and recommend my colleague Zach Rotman’s article about his beloved Mets. Not everything is as perfect as it seems.
Robert Murray’s notebook:
The Dodgers’ trade to acquire Alexis Diaz from the Reds was savvy, and only required them to part with their 13th round pick from the 2024 draft. If it doesn’t work out, then that’s fine. But if Diaz turns into the All-Star he was in 2023 … that could have every other team in baseball asking “Why didn’t we do that?”