Houston's inactivity on Alex Bregman could hurt them more than anyone realizes

The Houston Astros have been dancing a dangerous dance with top free agent Alex Bregman all offseason.

There is clear interest in a reunion, despite trading for a potential replacement in Isaac Paredes. Houston has a six-year, $156 million offer on the table, with nine productive seasons (and two World Series rings) as leverage. Bregman has never played major league baseball anywhere else. It's a bit hard to imagine him in a different uniform.

And yet, that appears to be where things are heading. Bregman is not satisfied with Houston's offer and he seems almost defiant in the face of a potential reunion. It helps that he has a six-year offer (with an opt-out) on the table from another team. Bregman's market is robust, despite it taking forever to get off the ground. Unless the Astros boost their offer, the talented corner infielder can — and will — walk.

The co-favorites to sign Bregman right now, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, are the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox. That only ratchets up the pressure on Dana Brown and a desperate Astros front office, which has struggled to keep pace with the aggressive spending of New York and other top-shelf contenders this winter.

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Alex Bregman is about to sign with an Astros rival if Houston doesn't step up

Houston has not been inactive, signing Christian Walker to a $60 million contract and, obviously, trading for Isaac Paredes, among others. That said, the latter involved sending away Kyle Tucker, their best bat, while potentially downgrading at third base. Paredes is coming off a down season, in which he posted a meek .739 OPS and 2.9 WAR. Bregman finished with a .768 OPS and 4.1 WAR by comparison, and it was far from his best work.

Paredes' bat might benefit from the switch to Daikin Park — he was uniquely ill-suited to Wrigley Field — but even so, he is meaningfully worse than Bregman, a bankable two-way contributor with one of the most disciplined plate approaches in baseball. With Tucker also gone and the Astros' veteran core aging another year, one can't help but feel like Houston is regressing while its main competition is ascending.

The American League isn't particularly stacked, especially not compared to the National League, but we've seen the Yankees stockpile big contracts after losing Juan Soto. The Red Sox have added multiple impact arms, including a Cy Young candidate in Garrett Crochet. Now Bregman is on their radar. Meanwhile, the Tigers are lurking with several direct locker room connections to Bregman. And, remind me, who eliminated Houston from the playoffs a few months ago? Oh, yeah... Detroit.

Among the other teams mentioned as potential Bregman suitors? The Toronto Blue Jays, perhaps the most desperate organization in baseball, equipped with massive spending power and a bonafide MVP candidate (for now) in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto has already signed Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer. At a certain point, we need to heed the Blue Jays as a legitimate threat due to sheer force of will.

If Bregman departs for the NL or signs with an AL lightweight, that's bad enough. The Astros should still want him back in the mix, even if it means moving Jose Altuve to left field. That's a small price to pay, and Altuve has made his willingness to sacrifice clear. If Bregman leaves for a team directly threatening Houston's World Series hopes, however, it will be tough for Dana Brown to justify. This saga smells strongly of disaster for the Astros.