The Moonshot: Bregman and Alonso chaos, Manfred's legacy, home run trots and a notebook

Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.

Welcome to The Moonshot.

Junior Caminero’s LIDOM home run trot went viral for all the right reasons. Around these parts, we are in favor. That being said, where exactly is the line these days in MLB?

Adam Weinrib: I think everything Junior Caminero did was within my personal lines, but I think it’s also *totally* ok if “the players” mentioned in the above question hate me for saying that. I like that there are factions of people who’d be rankled by it. Let the hate fuel you (but not dangerously so). I got to tip my cap to a showboater while I silently seethed a lot in high school (I was bad at baseball).

Eric Cole: I was once told by an unnamed MLB player that if he hit a walk-off postseason home run, you would be lucky if he made it to second base with his pants still on, so that is a starting point. I think the situation matters. I don’t care about bat flips, fist pumps, and/or a leisurely pace around the bags if a guy hits a home run in a big spot. If you are doing cartwheels after a solo shot that made it where your team is only down 8-3 in the fifth, that seems incredibly dumb and is probably over the line.

Chris Landers: To Eric’s point, it’s all about context. Caminero’s homer broke a tie in the top of the ninth inning of Game 7 of a championship series – you do that, you can moonwalk around the bases as far as I’m concerned. (Although it would’ve been an all-time blooper if Tigres had come back to walk it off in the bottom half, which they were one diving catch away from doing.) I also think it matters that Caminero didn’t do anything to show the pitcher up in an aggressive or overly confrontational way; it felt much more like celebrating than showboating, if that’s a distinction that makes sense, which I am wholeheartedly in support of.

Terrence Jordan: There are still players in the league that insist on playing the white, I mean right, way, but I’m all in favor of celebrating a huge homer with an epic bat flip. Some of the best moments from the past few seasons have been punctuated by a bat flying through the air, after all. Caminero’s celebration was emblematic of the joy that Latino players play the game with. We’ve seen that same thing in the World Baseball Classic, and it was undeniably refreshing. At the same time, I loved Francisco Lindor’s all-business trots when he homered to send the Mets to the playoffs, and when he grand-slammed the Phillies out of the NLDS. In short, do what feels right and I’m good with it.

Robert Murray: I’ll be honest, I thought it was sick. I loved every bit of it. Baseball should be fun and we should have more of those types of moments. That said, I doubt many players would agree. If he did that in an actual MLB game … he’s getting plunked the next day. Guaranteed.

Zachary Rotman: I’m going to echo everything Chris had to say. Caminero could not have hit a bigger home run in a bigger spot than he did, so he should celebrate exactly how he did. The line is probably drawn if he, or anyone else, did anything confrontational when rounding the bases. Pointing at or talking to the other team should be a non-starter. Celebrating wildly with your own team, though, should be encouraged.

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The Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso sagas continue. Which Scott Boras clients will struggle to find suitors next winter, or perhaps hold out for more money closer to spring training?

Adam Weinrib: Feel so bad for the mid-to-upper-tier free agents who’ve chosen Boras who aren’t in his winners’ bracket. Can I say Bregman again? I think he opts out after one season in INSERT NEW HOME TBD, then has to find work once more next winter.

Eric Cole: I’ll go with Dylan Cease. He is a high profile Boras client which puts him among the heavy favorites right out of the gate. Boras has also had a uniquely difficult time to get teams to pay his exorbitant prices for arms and Cease is far from a surefire ace. Pretty easy pick for me.

Chris Landers: It has to be Cody Bellinger, right? Either he hits 40 homers into the short porch and exercises his opt-out next winter, or he disappoints and the Yankees have no qualms about paying the $5 million buy-out. No matter what, he seems destined to hit the free market, and his profile seems almost designed in a lab to create a free agency quagmire. Boras will point to that MVP award and demand that he get paid like a five-tool star, while the rest of the league will look at his age and broader trendlines and stay far, far away from a long-term deal.

Terrence Jordan: I’ll second Bellinger for all the reasons Chris said, and also that rebound relationships don’t tend to work out. The Yankees were understandably sore about losing Juan Soto. With not many people left at the bar, they talked themselves into Bellinger being a serviceable replacement, but at this point in his career, he’s nowhere near that kind of player. Belli took a big step back in production last year in terms of his average, power and speed, and that’s not likely to change just because he traded Wrigley Field for Yankee Stadium. Teams have smartened up about paying for past production, and they’re not likely to care about Bellinger’s accomplishments from six years ago when he hits the market again.

Robert Murray: I’ll third Chris’ answer here about Bellinger. I will say this, though. If there’s ever a stadium where Bellinger could break out and have a big free-agent market, it’s Yankee Stadium. The ingredients are there for a big season, but I’m skeptical he’ll have a big market in free agency.

Zachary Rotman: Is it cheating to say Pete Alonso? At this point, he’s almost certain to sign a short-term deal with opt-outs, the only question is which team will end up getting him to sign the dotted line. Assuming Alonso has a better overall year in 2025, he’s likely going to opt out and search for the monster deal he thought he should’ve gotten this offseason. Alonso was unable to get a deal he wanted with Christian Walker as his best competition. How’s he going to do with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Josh Naylor on the open market? Chances are, not great.

No one can argue about the impact Rob Manfred’s had on MLB. It’s enormous, but has Manfred’s tenure (to this point) been a positive or negative, and why?

Adam Weinrib: Negative. Even if the mess he’s facilitated in Oakland was the only pockmark on an otherwise clean resumé, I’d say negative; it’s been that brazen and antithetical to what the American sporting experience should be. Maybe I was naive growing up, but I always took the eventuality of labor peace for granted; the players and owners may bicker, and might even freeze, but eventually they’d come together for the greater good. Under Manfred, that is no longer an inevitability.

If he’d like me to begin to reconsider my stance, he can start by cleaning up Tampa Bay before it becomes Oakland. I’m not optimistic.

Eric Cole: Overall negative, although I think several of the rules changes he championed have been objectively good (the ghost runner still stinks). He is very obviously a shill for the owners and is the type of labor hardliner that makes work stoppages seem inevitable every time the CBA expires. I don’t see much from him that makes him think the sport is looking to modernize its marketing and game distribution is in good hands under him as well. In short, stop hiring labor lawyers to be MLB commissioner and start hiring people that will put their pride aside and work tirelessly for ways to improve and grow the game.

Chris Landers: Manfred’s effect on the pace of play has been, I think, a net positive, although Eric’s correct that the ghost runner remains a deeply silly invention. More broadly, though, I think you have to say negative unless you’re one of the 30 owners whom Manfred has made even more comically rich. A lawyer who cut his teeth on labor negotiations, he’s done just about everything in his power to weaken the MLBPA, and his argument for the necessity of shuttering dozens of Minor League affiliates was disingenuous at best. Add in the Oakland fiasco as a rage-inducing cherry on top, and it’s hard to feel better about the long-term health of the sport than you did when he took over.

Terrence Jordan: Any time you can be more disliked than Roger Goodell and Gary Bettman put together, you’re doing something wrong. I like the pitch clock and the rules that promote more base-stealing, but other than that, Manfred has done a poor job. Baseball is a complete afterthought for most people after football. There are so many great young stars that the league has done a poor job of promoting, and the way the A’s move from Oakland to Vegas has been handled is embarrassing. I never thought I’d yearn for the halcyon days of Bud Selig, but Manfred has done the impossible.

Zachary Rotman: I think Eric hit the nail on the head, here, for the most part. Most of the rule changes he’s added, particularly when looking at pace of play, are objectively good and have garnered more interest from casual fans. He’s only wrong with his disapproval of the ghost runner. That, also, is objectively good. Other than that, what else is there that’s positive? The marketing around the sport is a joke, and the Oakland fiasco, as everyone else mentioned, is a brutal look.

On the surface, the AL runs through the Bronx, even though they lost Juan Soto. Which (if any) AL teams could surprise us as the Yankees greatest threat next season and why?

Adam Weinrib: As a Yankee guy, you’re probably expecting ludicrous negativity here/for me to say the Yankees aren’t a top-five team in the AL or whatnot. I won’t go that far; they’re good and more fundamentally sound than last year, but the lineup still isn’t balanced. Houston will be better than New York if they bring back Alex Bregman. They won’t be as intimidating as they’ve been at their peak with Bregman, but they’ll be the AL favorites.

Dark horses? I expect the Orioles, Red Sox, and Guardians to all make varying degrees of noise. If the Blue Jays sign Pete Alonso and Max Scherzer, they’re the second most interesting team in the AL East (sorry, O’s). If they don’t, I’ll go Boston. Sox fans might be pining for Alex Bregman, but if they just let Kristian Campbell cook, they won’t remember they even cared about Bregman by Opening Day 2026, if not sooner.

Eric Cole: If I were in the American League in 2025, I would be pretty concerned seeing the Rangers in the other dugout. Most of the roster that won the 2023 World Series is still there, Bruce Bochy is a magician, and they have star level talent on both sides of the ball. If Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford take steps forward this coming season and the team can stay healthy, I wouldn’t have many qualms about considering them as good or better than the Yankees.

As for a true dark horse, I’ll say the Royals. They can pitch and they have Bobby Witt Jr. As long as those two things are true, they are very capable of beating anyone.

Chris Landers: I’ll push back slightly on the suggestion that the Astros are better than the Yankees with Bregman back in the fold – their outfield still features Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, for goodness sake, and there are a ton of injury questions in that starting rotation. Houston will be right in the mix in 2025, but I’d probably have them in the Red Sox/Orioles/Guardians tier just a slight notch below New York.

If the Mariners, Twins and Tigers had any shame, they should all have spent this winter putting themselves in contention for this category. But sadly, we don’t live in that world, and so: Why not the Rays? Tampa Bay gets a ton of pitching back from injury, and while the lineup might not blow you away, there are enough pieces here to convince yourself that they can cobble things together the way they always seem to be able to.

Terrence Jordan: I like Eric’s picks, especially the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. is too good to be kept down, and before you bring up Mike Trout as a superstar that toiled in obscurity, I’ll counter by saying that Royals owner John Sherman has already shown himself to be someone that cares about spending money and winning, while Angels owner Arte Moreno has been a disaster for over two decades. Sherman locked down Witt with a monster contract, and the November trade for Jonathan India gives Kansas City one of the best middle infield duos in the game. Throw in another year of Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans at the top of the rotation and the probable regression of the Guardians and I think the Royals are set to run the AL Central.

Zachary Rotman: I think the Texas Rangers are the clear answer, here. Health is a concern, particularly in their rotation, but what if Jacob deGrom actually does stay healthy? What if the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle provide what Texas thinks they will? Their lineup, as we all know, might be the best in the AL, with Joc Pederson and Jake Burger joining the likes of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Adolis Garcia (I can go on, but won’t). The bullpen could probably use another arm, but Chris Martin and Robert Garcia are good additions.

Robert Murray's notebook: Relief market is active, Tigers aren't done

• The free-agent market for relievers remains active, and Kyle Finnegan could be next.
• Another reliever drawing interest, sources say, is Danny Coloumbe. Five teams are involved in the left-handers market.
• Despite signing Tommy Kahnle to a $7.75 million contract, as first reported by FanSided, it would not be a surprise to see the Tigers remain in the bullpen market.