The No. 1 seeds are the best teams in the NCAA Tournament, yet, the likelihood of them reaching the Final Four or even winning a championship is a lot lower than you’d think. In a way it makes sense why that’s the case.
The NCAA Tournament is hard because you play two games in three days, sometimes in a different time zone than what you’re used to. You have limited preparation time and even smaller prep time for the second game as it’s just a day in between.
Emotions are high and the pressure is on the top seeds to win the games they’re supposed to. But that doesn’t always happen. That’s why the phrase upset has been synonymous with March Madness and the NCAA Tournament. It’s also why No. 1 seeds, despite being the best teams in the tournament, struggle to go on deep playoff runs.
How dominant are No. 1 seeds, historically, during the NCAA Tournament?
Historically speaking, No. 1 seeds don’t show up particularly well in the NCAA Tournament, in terms of reaching the Final Four. Just once since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 have all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four and that was in 2008.
The only other time it got close was in 2015 when three No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four and it’s happened just five times ever. For the most part, the top seeds typically fizzle out after the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Since the tournament field expanded to 68 teams in 2011, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 32.7 percent of the teams in the Final Four, per Pool Genius.
Still, since 2011, only twice have zero No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four.
What do historic trends about top seeds in the Final Four tell us about this year’s March Madness tournament?
This year is the year I could see multiple No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four. I think it will come down to if Duke's Cooper Flagg is healthy for the tournament. But I could see Florida and Houston for sure making deep runs.
I think top overall seed Auburn might be the odd team out right now. They’ve lost three of the last four games and finally looked beatable.
This year has the chance for a lot of parity. I think the No. 1 seeds should do well, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or even two of them get knocked out early. I wouldn’t take the chance of betting on the No. 1 seeds.
If history repeats itself, it’s not likely the No. 1 seeds go on a deep run. They do well the first weekend, but when it comes to the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, the pressure gets to them.