The cut at the U.S. Open will be the Top 60 players and ties after 36 holes making it into the weekend. At Oakmont with the notoriously tough course showing its teeth as expected early on in the tournament, the cut line could be a massive sweat for players who want to vie for a major championship by first making it to the weekend. Trouble lies on ust about every hole at Oakmont, so the cut line sweat could be sweatier than in most tournaments, including the three other majors.
The majority of the favorites at the 2025 U.S. Open, including Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy, didn't play all that well to begin the tournament in Round 1, all shooting at least 3-over for the first 18 holes of their week. That put them in immediate danger of missing the projected U.S. Open cut line.
McIlroy didn't do himself any favors in regards to the cut on Friday, either. After a dismal round the day prior, Rory started off his second round with an ugly double bogey on No. 1 and then added another double on No. 2, putting him in real danger of missing the cut. Scheffler and DeChambeau, meanwhile, were able to steady the ship at least enough to likely see the weekend. Not everyone would be so lucky, though.
So let's dive into the full rules, how the cut rules compare to other majors, the projected cut near the end of the first round at the 2025 U.S. Open, and even a look at the history of cuts in both the U.S. Open in recent years and the most recent events at Oakmont.
How many players make the cut at the U.S. Open? Cut rules, explained
The top 60 players and ties make the cut at the U.S. Open is the strictest when you consider the field size. With 156 players entering the tournament through exemptions and qualifications, more than half of the field fails to make the cut based on these rules.
When you compare that to other major championships, that becomes even stricter in terms of the cut rules. The Masters actually cuts it down to the Top 50 and ties for the 36-hole cut, but there are often less than 100 players in the field at Augusta, so that is congruent. Meanwhile, the PGA Championship and Open Championship, which have comparable field sizes to the U.S. Open, actually let the Top 70 and ties into the weekend after the opening 36 holes.
2025 U.S. Open cut line projection
The 2025 U.S. Open cut line is almost certainly going to end up at +7. With the late-afternoon wave on Friday about midway through their second round, there is a 69.2% chance that the cut line will end up at +7, according to Data Golf. The next closest possibility would be the cut at Oakmont ending up at +6, but that is half as likely as one stroke higher at +7, coming in at 30.8%.
Notable U.S. Open players in danger of missing the cut
As mentioned, Rory McIlroy is one of the biggest names in danger of missing the cut. A 4-over round on Thursday, followed by going 4-over for his first three holes on Friday has put him in a bad spot for the U.S. Open. Here's a look at other notable players who are in danger of missing the cut at Oakmont, with their scores as of the latest update to this writing.
- Justin Rose +12 (Thru 11)
- Justin Thomas +12 (F)
- Cameron Smith +11 (Thru 10)
- Dustin Johnson +10 (F)
- Min Woo Lee +9 (F)
- Tommy Fleetwood +7 (Thru 12)
- Ludvig Åberg +7 (Thru 12)
- Matt Fitzpatrick +9 (Thru 11)
- Joaquin Niemann +10 (F)
- Shane Lowry +14 (Thru 11)
For those keeping track at home, that's six former major champions who are in danger or likely to miss the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open, including the winner of this event the last time it was at Oakmont in 2016, Dustin Johnson. If you needed any more evidence of how difficult the course is playing, this tells you everything.
What has the cut been at the last five U.S. Open tournaments?
Year | Cut Line | Players to Make the Cut |
|---|---|---|
2024 U.S. Open (Pinehurst) | +5 | 74 |
2023 U.S. Open (LACC) | +2 | 65 |
2022 U.S. Open (The Country Club) | +3 | 64 |
2021 U.S. Open (Torrey Pines) | +4 | 71 |
2020 U.S. Open (Winged Foot) | +6 | 62 |
Only at Winged Foot was the cut as low as it's projected to be at the 2025 U.S. Open. In fact, with the projected cut line at +6 or +7, you'd have to go back to the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills when the cut was at +8 to find something that's on this level of difficulty. For what it's worth, Brooks Koepka went on to win that tournament with a 72-hole score at 1-over. However, the first-round lead was at 1-under, which is a higher score than what we're seeing at Oakmont.
What was the cut at the last two U.S. Opens at Oakmont?
The projected cut for 2025 is pretty congruent with the last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont. Back in 2016, en route to Dustin Johnson's eventual come-from-behind win, the cut was at +6 with 67 players making the cut. There was a lot more carnage at Oakmont the prior trip, though, back in 2007. That cut ended up at an absurd +10 for the first 36 holes with 63 players making the cut. For more context, Angel Cabrera went on to win with a score of +5.