The New York Mets won their sixth consecutive game on Friday, but at a price. Their ace and the National League's leader in ERA, Kodai Senga, left his start prematurely after straining his hamstring trying to cover first base in Thursday's win. He was just placed on the 15-day IL less than 24 hours later. For many NL contenders, losing their ace for any period of time would be a season-defining event. For the Mets, though, this injury allows them to show off a strength of theirs that other teams just can't match.
Let me be clear. There's no "replacing" Kodai Senga. Again, he leads the NL in ERA. If the season ended today, he could very well be the Cy Young winner. However, the Mets' rotation, even without its best pitcher, is still a strength.
That can be attributed to the ridiculous depth the Mets have stockpiled, preparing for events exactly like these to transpire.
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Projected Mets rotation without Kodai Senga proves team should be just fine without him
One quick peek at the Mets' rotation, even without Senga, will give MLB fans a good idea of why the Mets hold the best record in the sport right now.
Mets Rotation Order | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | Clay Holmes |
2 | Tylor Megill |
3 | Griffin Canning |
4 | David Peterson |
5 | Paul Blackburn |
No, this rotation doesn't have a bonafide ace without Senga in the mix. Still, all five of these starters are more than capable of leading the Mets to wins every fifth day.
Even without Senga, four of these five starters have made at least 13 starts and have posted ERAs below 3.80. Two of the four have sub-3.00 ERAs. David Peterson's 2.49 ERA is the fourth-best in the National League, and Clay Holmes' 2.95 ERA has him just outside of the top 10. Is that good?
Senga's replacement for now is Paul Blackburn, who, in his only start this season, threw five scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. As a No. 5 starter, Blackburn is more than capable, and the Mets had him in their bullpen (and potentially available for trade) before Senga suffered his injury. What makes this even scarier is that more depth is coming.
Mets rotation getting close to receiving major boost
The Mets' 2.79 starting pitcher ERA is the best in the majors by a wide margin, and that's with their two highest-paid starters for this season, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, combining for a grand total of zero pitches thrown. That's right - both Manaea and Montas have been sidelined the entire season with injuries, and yet, the Mets have the best record and rotation ERA in the majors.
Both Manaea and Montas are inching their way back as we speak. Montas has made four rehab starts following his lat strain, two of which have come at the Triple-A level. He hasn't pitched particularly well, but has already thrown as many as 76 pitches in an outing, and he could make his Mets debut after his start on Friday.
As for Manaea, he's a bit further behind Montas, but is slated to make his third rehab start on Sunday. He was, by all intents and purposes, the team's ace last season, posting a 3.09 ERA in 12 starts after he changed his arm slot midseason.
So, yes, the Mets lost Senga for the time being, but have a full rotation without him, and have two more starters on their way. If everything goes as planned, both Montas and Manaea will be in the Mets' rotation by early July at the latest.
Mets have several prospects knocking on the door
As if the Mets don't have enough pitching depth to get excited about, they have a slew of rising pitching prospects knocking on the door.
Blade Tidwell has already made his MLB debut this season and has pitched well at the Triple-A level. Brandon Sproat, the top pitching prospect in the Mets' system entering the year, has had a bit of a rough go of it at Triple-A but he's gone at least five innings and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. Nolan McLean might be the most MLB-ready prospect they have at Triple-A right now, as evidenced by his 2.48 ERA in six appearances (four starts) at that level.
Jonah Tong might be the best pitching prospect in the Mets' system right now. He's only at Double-A, making him slightly behind the Triple-A trio, but he has a 1.99 ERA in 11 starts and has fanned a whopping 91 batters in just 54.1 innings of work. His 91 strikeouts have him ranked third across all of minor league baseball, just one shy of the leaders.
So yeah, an argument can be made that the Mets have as many as 10 or 11 starters who they can realistically plug into their rotation and expect success from even without Senga. That's a big deal, and something most MLB teams cannot match.
MLB contenders ought to learn from the Mets
Getting through an entire 162-game season without injuries to starting pitchers just will not happen. Depth is needed. The Mets have taken depth to an extreme, similar to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and both teams have survived a myriad of starting pitching injuries as a result.
On the flip side, look at the Baltimore Orioles, for example. They've been bitten awfully hard by the injury bug and made mistakes over the offseason, but have relied on guys like Cade Povich and Kyle Gibson as insurance options. Both have backfired tremendously. Gibson even got DFA'd after just four starts. Their season has spiraled out of control, mostly due to their lack of starting pitching.
The Toronto Blue Jays are another prime example of this. Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman have been good for the most part, but the rest of their rotation is a mess. Max Scherzer threw three innings in his Blue Jays debut and hasn't pitched since due to injury. The Blue Jays haven't found a consistent replacement for his rotation spot, and their lack of depth has forced them to keep Bowden Francis, a pitcher who has allowed an absurd 19 home runs in 60.1 innings pitched while pitching to an ERA north of 6.00 in their rotation. The Jays have gone 23-16 when the trio of Berrios, Bassitt, and Gausman have taken the mound, but are just 15-14 when they don't. That's the difference between being on a postseason track and being just average.
Mets starting pitching depth is why they have the best record in MLB
Juan Soto's first season with the Mets has featured its ups and downs, to say the least. The Mets have been one of the worst teams in the majors all year with runners in scoring position. Injuries have hit the Mets hard in several areas. The starting pitching depth is why their team has the best record in MLB.
The Mets' starting pitching options might not be full of household names, but they have a ridiculous amount of starters they can trust every fifth day if they have to. Even now, without their three highest-paid starters, they'll be just fine because of that, while other pitching-needy teams continue to search for answers.
The lesson here is that there truly is no such thing as too much starting pitching. A minimum of eight or nine MLB-capable starters are needed to get through an entire season, which might sound insane, but is the reality. The teams that are able to sustain injuries are the ones that have enough depth to avoid collapsing.