March Madness Bubble Watch: Last four in, first four out on March 14

Champ Week has been delivering in the drama department for college basketball fans. While there haven't been any true bid thieves yet, we've seen plenty of compelling action in conference tournament games, including a wild Thursday that saw a pair of double-overtime games and some key movement for teams on the bubble.

The landscape of the bubble has changed quite a bit since Monday's check-in so now is a good time to touch base on the state of the bubble with just three days of action left until Selection Sunday. Who is in good shape heading into the weekend and who has work to do? Read on to find out.

Note: All records, NET rankings and related metrics are current through the conclusion of games on March 13th. All strength of schedule figures (referred to in the tables as SOS and NCSOS for non-conference strength of schedule) are from KenPom. The highest remaining seed in a conference tournament is considered the automatic qualifier and is ineligible for this edition of Bubble Watch.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

The teams in this range of the bracket are reasonably safe since there are really only three scenarios left that can produce a true bid thief: Memphis losing the American, anyone other than VCU claiming the A-10 crown or the committee opting for a two-bid Big West. As a result, a team like Arkansas can feel good about avoiding a second loss to South Carolina and getting to 20 overall wins to stay in the field.

Utah State should be good also and the fact that they are still playing on Friday night is important for their chances of potentially improving their seed. Bubblers will be rooting hard for the Aggies to take down Colorado State, which is trying to play its way into the field.

Things should be okay for West Virginia given their six Quad 1 wins and solid scheduling metrics but losing to Colorado is not a note the Mountaineers wanted to end their resume with. Barring an insane run of bid thieves, the Mountaineers should be able to avoid the First Four.

San Diego State will likely be nervous after dropping their Mountain West Tournament opener to Boise State, but the idea that this team could miss the tournament is ludicrous. Playing the 8th-ranked non-conference schedule in the country and owning key victories over Houston, Creighton and UC San Diego should ensure the Aztecs make the field.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Oklahoma collapsed on Thursday night, blowing a double-digit lead in the final minutes only to take the lead again before being burned by former Sooner Otega Oweh, who hit a buzzer-beater to take down his old team for the second time in a matter of weeks. The good news for the Sooners is that the committee likely won't turn down a team with seven Quad 1 wins and was undefeated in non-conference play, but they could land in Dayton if their resume is questioned.

Fewer teams have a more nervous wait for Selection Sunday than Xavier, which also blew a double-digit lead against No. 25 Marquette in a game they had to have. There is a lot to like with the X-Men, who have 21 wins and won 13 Big East games, but the NET doesn't love their best wins (UCONN barely cracked a Quad 1 this morning and Creighton still sits as Quad 2 because it was at home), so the Musketeers are firmly in the anti-bid thieves camp.

No team has taken advantage of their conference tournament more than Texas, which has racked up two big Quad 1 wins to enhance their resume and looked like a tournament team with a dramatic double-overtime win over No. 14 Texas A&M on Thursday. Today's game against No. 4 Tennessee would likely wrap up a bid for Texas, although they should be in good shape with a loss unless we have a run of bid thieves.

The last team in the field right now is Boise State, which advanced past San Diego State on Thursday night to earn a shot at New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals. The Broncos can add their win over the Aztecs to non-conference victories over Clemson and Saint Mary's as a good starting point, but they are in danger of being passed if they can't beat the Lobos.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

Some bracketologists enthusiastically inserted North Carolina into the field after they beat Wake Forest on Thursday, but while they are trending in the right direction the Tar Heels still are sitting on a 1-11 Quad 1 record with the lone win coming by two against UCLA at Madison Square Garden in December. The basketball gods gave North Carolina a massive gift in a semifinal matchup against No. 1 Duke that will in all likelihood not have Cooper Flagg, which is a game the Tar Heels have to win if. Failing to secure that victory would leave UNC at 1-12 in Quad 1 games and an easy target for exclusion.

Dayton is the only Bubble Watch team yet to start its conference tournament road but has moved up a bit thanks to some other teams around the cut line falling early. The key for the Flyers is to get to the A-10 title game on Sunday against (hopefully) VCU, giving themselves a shot at the auto-bid and a Quad 1 opportunity in the final.

Colorado State extended its winning streak to eight games with a win over Nevada in the Mountain West quarterfinals, but it won't do much to help the Rams as a Quad 2 victory. Topping Utah State would count towards the Quad 1 total and put Colorado State in the title game, opening a path for them to become the Mountain West's bid thief.

Indiana's late-season surge came to a crashing halt at the Big Ten Tournament, where they lost by 13 to an Oregon team playing at 9 am body time on a high noon tip-off. While the Hoosiers' schedule strength is impressive, a 4-13 Quad 1 record is a hard sell given some of the other options on this bubble.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

UC Irvine is the top team in this section because of their potential to upset UC San Diego in the Big West final on Saturday night. Getting by Cal Poly is a must since this resume isn't strong enough to withstand a Quad 3 loss in the Big West semis, but if the Anteaters get the auto-bid there's a good chance UC San Diego pushes someone out of the field.

Ohio State's bubble officially popped when they lost their Big Ten Tournament opener to Iowa on Wednesday, making it a run of six losses in their last nine games to turn an easy at-large bid into a Crown invite. Even though the Buckeyes scheduled strong, a 17-15 overall record is not good enough for inclusion even on a weak bubble.

We're putting North Texas on the radar here as a potential bid thief out of the American due to solid metrics and close results against tournament-bound teams like Utah State and Memphis, who beat the Mean Green at home by four in their only meeting of the season. As the two seed in the American, North Texas has the cleanest path to the auto bid by either knocking off the Tigers or cleaning up the mess if someone upsets Memphis ahead of time.

Wake Forest is only here because the last table needed four teams but anyone beyond North Texas (outside of bid thieves) isn't really an at-large consideration at this point. The Demon Deacons blew their chance to stay on the bubble by falling to North Carolina in their first ACC Tournament game, essentially leaving 11 teams in the mix for the final three NCAA Tournament spots.