The New York Mets were dealt a frustrating blow when it was revealed that Frankie Montas, one of their notable free agency additions, will miss the beginning of the 2025 MLB season due to a lat injury. No, it isn't Juan Soto who got hurt, but Montas was expected to be plugged into the middle of New York's revamped rotation. Now, the Mets have a decision to make.
The Mets don't have to add another starting pitcher with guys like Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill in the organization, but if the right opportunity arose, they probably would add a starter to give them some more insurance.
On paper, the right opportunity is staring at them in the face with Jose Quintana, a pitcher who spent each of the last two seasons with the Mets and particularly impressed down the stretch this past season. From what Jon Heyman revealed on The Baseball Insiders Podcast alongside FanSided's Robert Murray, it sounds like the Mets are passing on a Quintana reunion for one specific reason.
"They don't like the metrics with Quintana for some reason," Heyman said. "I'm not sure why, a 3.11 ERA in the second half is a pretty good metric for me, I would take Quintana. He was good, he was liked. It's all about the numbers these days, it's all about the velocity, and he does not have big velocity."
Poor metrics explain why Mets are reluctant to pursue Jose Quintana reunion
This stance from David Stearns and Co. isn't too surprising. The Mets signed six pitchers to MLB deals this offseason (Montas, Canning, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, and all of them throw substantially harder than Quintana who averaged just 90.7 mph with his fastball in 2024, putting him in the ninth percentile according to Baseball Savant. The softest tosser the Mets have signed this offseason has been Manaea, who averaged 92.3 mph with his fastball — nearly two mph faster than Quintana's average.
While Quintana's low fastball velocity might make him less than appealing for the Mets, that isn't the only reason New York is reluctant to bring him back.
While Quintana's 3.18 second-half ERA was solid, he might have gotten a bit lucky, as evidenced by his 3.89 FIP and his .269 BAbip. While Quintana undoubtedly pitched well, the batted ball luck skewed in his favor making him a possible regression candidate.
Overall, Quintana had a very solid 3.75 ERA in 31 starts and 170.1 innings of work, but he had a 4.56 FIP and a 4.52 xERA. Again, he was good, but might have been a bit lucky too. It's really hard to bet on luck.
Quintana is what he is — a solid back-end starter. While he's an upgrade over the likes of Blackburn, Canning, and Megill, do the Mets really need to bring him back when Montas is only expected to miss around 10 starts or so, and they have decent enough depth? Probably not, especially when he's 36 years old, doesn't generate many whiffs, and will only continue to lose velocity.
Quintana will be remembered fondly by Mets fans for what he did in the second half of the 2024 season and in the postseason as well, but that does not mean that the Mets must bring him back if they have reason to believe 2025 won't be as good of a year for the southpaw.