Mike Elias is leaving no doubt that he’s not the one to get the Orioles over the hump

The Baltimore Orioles finished last season with 91 wins. That was enough for second place in the AL East and the top Wild Card slot in the playoffs. The result, of course, was another swift exit.

It was the Kansas City Royals, somewhat poetically, who eliminated Baltimore from postseason contention this time around. Kansas City is a similarly obscure market used to toiling in mediocrity. What separated the Royals from the Orioles, in the end, was front office philosophy. Where the Royals spent and made aggressive moves to upgrade the roster, Baltimore held fast, avoiding major expenses until the very end.

The best example of this critical flaw in team-building strategy is Corbin Burnes, whom Baltimore acquired via trade last winter. He finished top-five in AL Cy Young voting, pitching eight innings of one-run baseball in a postseason loss, then left in free agency for a discount contract in Arizona, because the O's were never going to pay him.

GM Mike Elias has become something of an expert at putting bandaids on bullet holes. For ages, the O's have been defined by a lack of aggression in the front office. An over-reliance on the farm system and internal growth. That strategy has left the O's with a talent-rich pipeline of up-and-coming position players, but Elias has proven that he just can't — or won't — take that next step. Even with new ownership behind him.

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Mike Elias has Orioles fans running out of patience

New O's owner David Rubenstein, worth north of $4 billion, was supposed to empower Elias to operate more aggressively than ever before. This Baltimore team is painfully close to reaching the mountaintop. The rotation has real depth. The lineup is loaded with sustainable firepower, led by a future MVP candidate in Gunnar Henderson.

All that's missing is a bit of genuine effort from Elias and the front office. That extra push to put Baltimore over the edge in a competitive division.

The Burnes trade was a great sign, but it feels more like a red herring in hindsight. The O's were never actually going to pay Burnes to stick around, and now Baltimore appears weary of trading assets for another potential rental, because the front office won't pay them when the time arrives. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. We can't trade for a star because we won't extend the star. If only there was a way around this problem. Some way to, I don't know, pay your stars.

From Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic:

"According to a league source briefed on the club’s plans, the Orioles are still looking for additional upgrades in free agency and via trade. But their options, if they indeed intend to make further moves, are dwindling."

Baltimore has watched Burnes, Blake Snell, and other free agent aces pass them by. Based on the latest reporting, a trade for an expiring star, such as Dylan Cease, is unlikely. Luis Castillo has been floated as a possible target, but he's on the decline and he's more expensive than Baltimore would like.

This winter, Elias made the first multi-year contract signing of his O's career, handing three years and $49.5 million to Tyler O'Neill. It includes an opt out after the first season, and it's essentially a move to replace veteran slugger Anthony Santander with a cheaper, more injury-prone option. Since then, Elias' crowning "achievement" has been replacing Burnes, one of the most dominant workhorse pitchers in the sport, with 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano. Both on one-year contracts.

Baltimore's front office is playing scared. That is the frank truth of it all. The O's "are not inclined" to trade young position talent, such as Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, or Jordan Westburg, for an ace like the aforementioned Luis Castillo, per The Athletic. Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo are viewed as important short-term and long-term pieces. In their own way, the O's are prospect-hugging, clinging to depth and "affordability," rather than swinging for the fences while the Yankees, Red Sox, and other AL contenders empty the clip in free agency.

Until the O's change their approach in the front office, they feel destined to keep coming up short.