Is Missouri at Alabama a definitive College Football Playoff elimination game?

Alabama could be left out of the College Football Playoff. I’ll say that one more time: Alabama could be left out of the College Football Playoff. 

It wouldn’t be the first time it’s happened, but of the two times the Crimson Tide have missed the CFP, when they missed in 2022, they would have been the No. 5 seed in an expanded playoff. When they missed in 2019, they were ranked No. 13. 

So if Bama were to miss this year’s playoff, which features 12 teams and a slightly larger margin for error, how bad would that really be? They could very well find out if they lose to Missouri. That matchup is every bit of an elimination game. 

Why the loser of Alabama-Missouri will miss the College Football Playoff

The good thing about the expanded College Football Playoff is that it doesn’t punish a team for a late-season loss or early-season struggles. So naturally, it would make sense if a two-loss team snuck into one of the at-large seeds. 

But a three-loss team? Highly unlikely. Alabama is in unfamiliar territory after it lost to Tennessee on Saturday night, its second loss of the season. The Crimson Tide have to win out, first and foremost. They can’t get in with any more losses. They also may need some help from other at-large teams to get in. 

To be fair, both losses were due to Alabama’s lack of offensive consistency. While Tennessee’s defense was every bit locked in on Saturday, Alabama’s offense isn’t quite striking as it usually does. Both games were winnable and could ultimately hurt their playoff chances. 

As for Missouri, they need this win maybe more than Alabama. The Tigers have no more ranked games left after its bout with Alabama. And right now, its best win is over Vanderbilt. That won’t be enough to convince the CFP committee to consider the Tigers. 

And in its only other ranked game of the season, the Tigers were throttled by Texas A&M to the tune of 41-10. Road game or not, that is not passing any litmus test the CFP hands out when it does its weekly rankings starting in a few weeks. 

If Alabama misses this year’s playoff when more teams can get invited, it would not bode well for Kalen DeBoer in his first season since taking over for Nick Saban. For Missouri, missing the CFP would continue to push the Tigers down the SEC totem pole. 

Both teams have to come up with a win. Their College Football Playoff hopes are depending on it.