Awards talk before the All-Star break might be premature, but with the calendar being just one month away from turning to June, roughly one-third of the MLB season has wrapped up.
With that in mind, sample sizes are large enough to, at the very least, discuss who the favorites are to win the major awards. Rookie of the Year is as intriguing an award as there is in MLB.
While the races don't include dynamic names like Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill, and Jackson Chourio this time around, they do include several bright stars in both leagues, making names for themselves. Here are the favorites to walk away with the awards in both leagues with four months to go.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
American League Rookie of the Year rankings: Jasson Dominguez has his work cut out for him
3) Jasson Dominguez is facing steep competition
Entering the season, it felt as if this award might've been Jasson Dominguez's to lose. He has been considered one of MLB's top prospects for half a decade, and was finally going to get a chance to show the world why while receiving regular playing time for the New York Yankees.
Dominguez's rookie year has been solid. He enters Saturday's action slashing .244/.342/.417 with six home runs and 24 RBI. He's even chipped in with seven stolen bases and is tied with Kristian Campbell for the most walks drawn by a rookie (24) this season. Those numbers might not jump off the page, but he has a 117 WRC+, tying him with Gunnar Henderson for 69th among 169 position players. His 117 WRC+ shows that he's roughly 17 percent better than league-average at the plate, and has only been better in May (142 WRC+), a month that has seen him put several impressive moments together.
While his stock is trending upwards, Dominguez has a ton of ground to cover in what's shaping up to be a loaded AL Rookie of the Year race. He can make up the ground, but for now, he can't be put any higher than No. 3 on this list.
2) Shane Smith has been a welcome surprise in another dismal White Sox season
The Chicago White Sox are a mess once again, but Shane Smith has been a nice bright spot for their fans to rally around. White Sox fans didn't expect much from Smith, a Rule-5 Draft selection, but he made their rotation out of spring training and has been nothing but extraordinary in that role.
The right-hander has a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and 57 innings of work. Command has eluded him at times, but he's fanned almost a batter per inning and has allowed just four home runs all year. What's been most impressive about Smith, though, has been his consistency. He's gone at least five innings in all but two of his appearances, and has allowed three earned runs or fewer each time he's taken the ball. His defense has betrayed him on numerous occasions, and he doesn't get much run support, but Smith has been giving his team a chance to win just about every time he's taken the mound.
There are a couple of factors that could hold Smith back from winning the Rookie of the Year award by the end of the year. First, the innings are piling up. He has thrown 57 innings this season, and has never gone beyond 94.1 innings in a professional season. He'll go beyond that this season, assuming he can stay healthy, but with the White Sox having little to play for, his innings might be capped. Second, the play of Jacob Wilson has been too good to ignore.
Even if Smith doesn't win the award, he's looking like a pitcher the White Sox can build around for years to come, which is incredible considering he came from the Rule-5 Draft.
1) Jacob Wilson looks like a bonafide star for the Athletics
Speaking of Wilson, he's the clear frontrunner to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. He has taken the league by storm after an uneven 28-game cup of coffee last season.
Wilson enters Saturday's action slashing .344/.387/.498 with seven home runs and 31 RBI in 55 games. He trails only Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman in batting, and his 153 WRC+ is good for 13th among qualified position players, ahead of guys like Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, and Corbin Carroll.
Wilson has nearly double as many multi-hit games (22) as he has strikeouts this season (14), which is astonishing. He's able to put the ball in play at will, and yet, still has seven home runs. Playing in a minor league park half the time has undoubtedly helped, but he has a two-homer game at Dodger Stadium to hang his hat on.
Has Wilson been a bit unlucky? Perhaps. His .345 BAbip has certainly helped raise his production. Still, when you put the ball into play as much as Wilson has, you're bound to have some good luck once in a while. Wilson has essentially been hitting like a right-handed version of Luis Arraez with more power and better defense.
Not only is he leading the Rookie of the Year race, but he's got a good shot to make the AL All-Star team, representing the Athletics. Who would've expected that in his rookie year?
National League Rookie of the Year rankings: Catchers dominate the NL ROY conversation
3) Matt Shaw is playing himself back into the NL Rookie of the Year race
When Matt Shaw won the Chicago Cubs' third base job out of spring training, he was seen as one of, if not the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. He got off to such a sluggish start to the point where he was sent back down to the minors less than one month into his MLB career, but his play since his mid-May recall has helped him get back into the NL Rookie of the Year race.
Shaw enters Saturday's action slashing .378/.425/.514 with five extra-base hits and five stolen bases in 10 games since his return from Triple-A, raising his overall numbers in a big way. Shaw is now slashing .253/.343/.347 in 28 games overall, which might not look great, but based on where his numbers were when he got sent down, his numbers have skyrocketed in the right direction.
Shaw's rough start will continue to hurt him for a while, but if he keeps playing close to how well he is right now, which he absolutely has the potential to do, he could end up stealing this award, especially in a weaker NL Rookie of the Year race.
2) Agustin Ramirez might already be a high-end offensive catcher
Catchers are, for the most part, known to be defense-first players, with the offensive production coming secondary. Agustin Ramirez is the inverse of that. He's proving it in his first taste of MLB action.
The 23-year-old was promoted in late April and immediately had seven hits in his first 10 MLB at-bats, five of which went for extra bases. He hasn't quite hit at that absurd clip in the 29 games he's played since, but he's slashing .254/.314/.508 with seven home runs and 17 RBI overall.
The Miami Marlins don't have much to offer offensively, but Ramirez already looks like one of the best hitting catchers in the sport. Defense might be a bit of a concern, but it's hard to ignore 18 extra-base hits in 32 games coming from a rookie backstop.
As someone who should play just about every day and hit in the upper third of Miami's order all year, Ramirez should remain right in the thick of the Rookie of the Year race with a great chance of winning it.
1) Drake Baldwin has been a bright spot in a rough Braves season
The Atlanta Braves have been one of MLB's most disappointing teams this season, but they've had a pair of rookies, Drake Baldwin and AJ Smith-Shawver, play extremely well. Smith-Shawver's season ended prematurely, ending his chance of being on this list, but Baldwin has been a bright spot. He made the team because Sean Murphy suffered a spring training injury, and made such a good first impression to the point where he not only remained on the team when Murphy returned, but he's cut substantially into Murphy's playing time.
Baldwin is slashing .324/.373/.510 with five home runs and 15 RBI in 35 games played. What's most impressive about Baldwin's absurd numbers is that he began his career by going (an incredibly unlucky) 1-for-18. He's hitting .381 with a 1.029 OPS since that 1-for-18 start, and is starting to hit second in the order in games he starts.
Everything about how Baldwin has looked this season suggests he's a future star, if he isn't a star already. The only thing that can possibly hold him back is Murphy finding his way into the lineup more than perhaps he should.