The 2025 MLB Draft begins this Sunday, July 13, and it is shaping up to be a wild one. There isn't a consensus generational talent at the top of the draft, unfortunately, but that also adds to the intrigue in the first round as teams can take any number of paths and still arrive at a class they are happy with.
There is already a lot of speculation as to what each MLB team's draft plan is going to be, and frankly, trying to get that granular and specific with draft predictions is a fool's errand. All it takes is for one team to go off-script for the first round to descend into the total chaos it almost always becomes. However, there are a few storylines that are likely to determine things regardless of what the actual details end up being.
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What will the Nationals do at No. 1 after firing Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez?
The Nationals turned the baseball world on its head with the recent announcement that the team was firing both general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez. You just don't see firings on this scale at this point of the baseball calendar very often, and it probably wasn't coincidental that Rizzo was let go before he could make the Nationals' pick at No. 1 overall.
Industry consensus seems to be that Washington had narrowed their pick down to prep shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson, both of whom are Scott Boras clients. One wonders if there was some disagreement as to the direction the organization should take with the pick. Just like that, there could be up to eight different players in play again at No. 1 overall, although Holliday and Anderson still seem like the betting favorites.
The Reds and/or White Sox could get a steal just inside the top 10
The top overall pick in 2025 is not the only part of the draft that is unsettled. In fact, far from it. There is little in the way of actual separation among the top 10ish draft prospects, which could create some wild scenarios — especially if any of the teams in the top 10 decide to go off the board a bit and cut an underslot deal.
The beneficiaries of any amount of chaos will undoubtedly be the Cincinnati Reds at No. 9 and the Chicago White Sox at No. 10. Those are the teams that are at the mercy of what happens ahead of them. If things go as expected, their picks won't be all that exciting even though they would likely end up with a quality player like Ike Irish or Billy Carlson. However, two names to keep an eye on are prep pitcher Seth Hernandez and Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle. Both could be in play in the top 3 picks, but both also have profiles that could spook teams and let them fall to the back of the top 10 — where Cincinnati or Chicago would likely pounce on them immediately.
The back half of the first round is anyone's guess — and could lead to fireworks
The narrative throughout the pre-draft process has been that there are realistically 50 or so prospects that could go in the final 20 picks of the first round. That means a few things: one, trying to guess who will get picked where is basically impossible this year; and two, it increases the likelihood that teams will try to go underslot with their first pick in order to try and add a really good player with their next pick.
The underslot strategy works best for teams that have extra picks after the first round and big bonus pools, as they will have first crack at whoever drops a bit. Teams that fit the bill include the Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. The Los Angeles Angels also technically fit the profile, but everyone seems to think they will just pick the player at No. 2 overall that is the closest to big-league ready and pay them what is necessary so that they can call them up in a few weeks or months regardless of the potential savings.