It was easy to anticipate most of the 13 players who wound up receiving the qualifying offer. With that being said, there certainly were some surprises when discussing those who were tendered the offer, as well as some who were not.
It might sound like bad news for the fringe guys who didn't get the qualifying offer, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Not having the qualifying offer means teams won't have to forfeit draft pick compensation or, in some cases, international bonus pool money to make the move. thus making them more desirable. For players like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, teams wouldn't bat an eye when it comes to giving up a draft pick. For fringe guys, it's a lot harder to give up additional assets other than just money.
With that being said, these five free agents lucked out by getting overlooked at Thursday's qualifying offer deadline.
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RHP Devin Williams, New York Yankees
Contrary to popular belief, Devin Williams had a good year with the New York Yankees, he just got incredibly unlucky. He had a 4.79 ERA, but his 2.68 FIP was nearly two runs lower. In fact, Williams' 2.11 E-F (ERA-FIP) was the third-highest among pitchers with at least 60 innings of work in 2025 per FanGraphs. He even posted his lowest walk rate (9.7 percent) in a season that's seen him throw more than 30 innings and his 34.7 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 97th percentile per Baseball Savant. To top it all off, Williams was New York's most impressive reliever by a wide margin in the postseason.
Obviously, his 4.79 ERA would indicate that he wasn't deserving of the qualifying offer, but all of his advanced metrics suggest he's due for major positive regression in 2026 since he was really good under the hood in 2025. The Yankees could've taken a one-year gamble on Williams bouncing back and pitching like one of the best relievers in the sport in 2026.
Without the qualifying offer, though, Williams will generate interest from far more teams than he otherwise would've, giving him a chance to cash in on a potential multi-year deal while also giving himself the best chance to prove his ERA was, indeed, a fluke.
INF/DH Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres
A player who led the National League in hits in 2025 and has won three of the last four batting titles, not getting the qualifying offer, might sound insane, but in Luis Arraez's case, it really wasn't. There's no doubting that Arraez is not only the best pure contact hitter in the game today, but one of the best contact hitters ever. With that being said, making contact is just about all Arraez does well, and sometimes the contact he makes is to his detriment.
Despite hitting .292 in 2025, Arraez had a 99 OPS+, meaning he was somehow slightly below-average as a hitter. The reason for this is his lack of power (8 HR) and his low walk rate (5.0 percent). Arraez might put the ball in play more than anyone else, but that doesn't translate to him getting on base much (.319 OBP), or hitting the ball hard. Swinging at and making contact with everything sounds cool, but results in a softly hit ground ball or fly ball most of the time, which isn't so valuable. Additionally, Arraez is a non-factor on the base paths and is probably best suited to be a DH.
Had he received and rejected the qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres, I'm not sure a team out there would've even considered signing Arraez because of how flawed he is as a player. Now that teams wouldn't have to give up compensation to sign him, perhaps Arraez can stumble into a multi-year deal somewhere.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
It was a little bit surprising that the Boston Red Sox refused to extend the qualifying offer Lucas Giolito's way because Giolito rejected his end of a $19 million mutual option. Since Giolito rejected that, it would've made sense for him to have rejected a deal that would've given him just $3 million of additional money. The fact that he didn't even have a chance to reject that offer is probably a blessing in disguise for Giolito.
The right-hander had a solid season with the Boston Red Sox, posting a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts and 145 innings of work, but he might've gotten a bit lucky (4.17 FIP, 5.01 xERA), and he also ended the year on the Injured List with an elbow injury. Fortunately, the ailment was minor and he says he's fine now, but Giolito ending the year with an arm issue, even a minor one, isn't great after he missed the entire 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John Surgery.
There are reasons to question whether Giolito is anything more than a back-end starter and there are some durability concerns as well. It would've been a hard sell for teams to have given Giolito a multi-year deal, considering the circumstances, had he gotten the qualifying offer. Without it, though, that reality becomes increasingly likely.
INF/DH Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners
There's no disputing the fact that Jorge Polanco's 2025 season was worthy of the qualifying offer. He slashed .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs and 78 RBI for the Seattle Mariners and came through in seemingly every huge spot in the postseason as well. The reason Polanco didn't get the qualifying offer stems back to his previous three seasons.
Polanco didn't play more than 118 games in any of his previous three seasons, and wasn't nearly as good offensively as he was in 2025 in those years either. In fact, Polanco's 2024 campaign was so lackluster that he didn't re-sign with Seattle that offseason until February, and he got just $7.75 million on a one-year deal when the dotted line was signed.
Had Polanco received and rejected the qualifying offer, I'm not sure what his market would've been. He's coming off a great year, but he's also a 32-year-old with durability concerns who also saw 89 of his 138 appearances this season come as a designated hitter. A DH who isn't a game-changer offensively like Kyle Schwarber probably isn't going to get much attention on the open market with compensation attached. Without it, Polanco can probably find a multi-year deal somewhere.
RHP Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
Robert Suarez led the National League with 40 saves in 2025, and has a MLB-leading 76 saves since becoming the Padres' primary closer in 2024. He's undoubtedly become one of the best relievers in the game the last couple of years, so it was a little bit surprising that he didn't receive the qualifying offer. Being snubbed, though, is to Suarez's benefit.
It's hard enough for teams to give up draft pick compensation to sign a player. It's a lot harder to do so for a reliever, and one who will be 35 years old by Opening Day at that. There's no disputing that Suarez is a darn good pitcher, but how many teams would've been willing to give Suarez a hefty multi-year deal with compensation attached? The answer is not many.
This is Suarez's best chance to cash in on the open market, considering his age. The last thing he would've wanted was for the qualifying offer to scare teams away. Without that, he'll have no issues securing a lucrative contract to carry him into his late 30s.