As has been the case for the better part of a decade now, the Houston Astros entered the 2025 MLB season with World Series aspirations. Unfortunately, for reasons both in and out of their control, the Astros missed the postseason for the first time since 2016. Injuries ravaged the team from start to finish, but the roster had its share of flaws to begin with.
Now, it's fair to wonder where the Astros go from here. With better injury luck, this team could have what it takes to get back to the postseason as soon as next season, but they haven't won a playoff game since 2023, and they've only trended in the wrong direction since winning the World Series in 2022. There's a non-zero chance that this organization's World Series window is now shut for a while.
Dana Brown is far from the only individual to blame for that reality, but these six mistakes have certainly played a role in creating what could be a closed World Series window.
Dana Brown's biggest mistakes
- Justin Verlander trade
- Jesus Sanchez trade
- Josh Hader signing
- Kyle Tucker trade
- Carlos Correa trade
- Christian Walker signing
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Justin Verlander trade
In an effort to go all-in at the 2023 trade deadline, the Houston Astros re-acquired Justin Verlander in a deal with the New York Mets, sending top prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford to the Big Apple. Verlander pitched pretty well for Houston down the stretch, posting a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts and helping the team advance to the ALCS, but they fell short of their ultimate goal and never got back there with Verlander on the roster.
The future Hall of Famer stuck around in 2024 but had a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts and did not make a postseason appearance. He left for free agency that offseason.
Admittedly, the Astros didn't give up too much to get Verlander in hindsight. Gilbert could be a decent MLB regular some day, but he's already 25 years old and his first big league stint wasn't great. Clifford is an intriguing prospect with a lot of power, but who knows how his game will translate to the big leagues?
There are reasonable questions to ask about both players, but both of these players have a good amount of value. Gilbert helped land the Mets a premier late-game reliever, Tyler Rogers, at this past year's trade deadline, and Clifford is a top 10 prospect in a very strong New York farm system. Whether they stuck around or were used as trade pieces, reversing this trade would've given Houston some much-needed youth to either build around or flip for proven talent.
Jesus Sanchez trade
The Astros needed a left-handed power-hitting outfielder, and Jesus Sanchez checked all of those boxes as well as just about every available player. When adding in the fact that he came with additional club control, the trade Brown made to acquire him made even more sense. Unfortunately, the deal just didn't age well at all.
Sanchez slashed .199/.269/.342 with four home runs and 12 RBI in 48 games with the Astros this season and undoubtedly played a role in the team's demise. Sure, there are reasons to believe he'll be better in 2026 - he couldn't be much worse - but I think the odds are fairly slim that he'll be with the team next season.
The Astros didn't part with too much, but Ryan Gusto, an MLB-ready starting pitcher, and Chase Jaworsky, a top 10 or 15 prospect in Houston's system, each had some value. Trading the two of them for a player who couldn't even hit .200 and will likely be gone next season isn't ideal, especially when the farm system is already a weakness.
Josh Hader signing
Josh Hader signed a record-breaking five-year, $95 million deal with the Astros in the 2023 offseason, breaking the record for the richest present-day value deal for a reliever. I'm not going to say Hader hasn't been worth the money. He had a rocky first season in Houston, but was one of the best relievers in the American League before suffering what proved to be a season-ending injury in August. What I will say is this might not have been the best use of that kind of money.
The Astros were willing to pay Hader, an excellent closer, but only that. He won't throw more than 70-75 innings in a given regular season, and relievers can also be extremely volatile, as we saw in 2024 with this left-hander. Why couldn't this money have gone to one of the several players they've let go of? Could they not have added $95 million to a Kyle Tucker contract? $95 million would probably pay for a sizable portion of the deal Framber Valdez is likely going to receive from a non-Astros team.
Hader has met expectations for the most part, but there's only so much value a reliever can bring to a team. Given Houston's clear budgetary restraints, committing $95 million to a reliever could prove to have been a costly decision.
Kyle Tucker trade
I understand why the Astros traded Kyle Tucker away — they were unwilling to spend what it was going to take to lock him up long-term. With that in mind, I'm supportive of the deal, but it's hard to love the return Houston got one year into the deal.
Isaac Paredes had a good offensive year, but he was a lackluster defender at third base and will likely be moved off the position entirely with Carlos Correa now in town. A move to first base or DH is fine, but those are not nearly as valuable positions as third base.
Cam Smith looked like a star in the making, and he might still be, but his rookie year featured more bad than good. He had a prolonged stretch of brilliance in parts of May and June, but the question of whether the Astros promoted him to the majors too early is one worth asking. How good will he be long-term? There's no way of knowing.
Hayden Wesneski's Astros career got off to a shaky start, and his season ended prematurely after just six starts as he underwent Tommy John Surgery. Not only was Wesneski out for most of 2025, but he'll be out for some, if not most, of 2026 as well.
This was the return they got for Tucker, a bonafide superstar. I get that he was just a one-year rental and that he was never going to command a Juan Soto-esque return, but does it not look a little light? Paredes is a good hitter, but likely isn't a third baseman anymore. Smith is a complete question mark. The same can be said about Wesneski. It isn't the kind of return Astros fans thought they were getting for Tucker when the deal was made. This can change over time, and it might have to if the Astros want to keep their World Series window alive.
Carlos Correa trade
Everyone expected the Astros to trade for a third baseman when Isaac Paredes suffered what looked like a season-ending injury. Nobody expected that third baseman to be Carlos Correa. Don't get me wrong - it's cool to see Correa, an Astros legend who should one day have his number retired by the organization, back in Houston, but how much sense did it really make re-acquiring him?
The 31-year-old did some great things in Houston, but he is not the player he once was. Sure, his .785 OPS down the stretch was better than expected, but he had a .704 OPS pre-trade, and has a ton of durability concerns. If Correa were a rental, this deal would've been fine, but he has another three years worth a total of $62 million on his deal, even after the Twins sent Houston over $30 million in the trade.
Getting Correa at a discount is ideal, and the Astros didn't trade anything of note player-wise to get him, but again, this team has clear budgetary constraints. That's why they let Correa walk as a free agent to begin with! Committing the kind of money they are to him when they already have Paredes at third, Jeremy Pena at shortstop the DH spot clogged up by Yordan Alvarez, and Christian Walker at first base is just strange business.
If Correa plays like he did down the stretch, perhaps the deal isn't so bad, but the odds of him being even close to a $20 million player annually for the next three years, given his age and durability concerns, feel slim. There were better ways they could have allocated this money.
Christian Walker signing
The Jose Abreu failure wasn't Dana Brown's fault, but he made what could end up resulting in a similar kind of mistake when he signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. Admittedly, I did like the deal when it was signed, but Walker's first season in Houston didn't go as planned.
In 154 games, he slashed .238/.297/.421 with 27 home runs and 88 RBI while even taking a slight step back defensively. He did have a much better second half than first, which could bode well for 2026, but by all accounts, Walker had his worst season since 2021. That's not exactly a great sign for a 34-year-old right-handed-hitting first baseman, an archetype that doesn't typically age well.
What makes this deal even worse is that there's probably a non-zero chance that he ends up getting dealt this offseason. It wouldn't be ideal since his value couldn't be much lower right now, coming off a down year, but with Correa locked in, the infield feels over-crowded. If they trade him, they wouldn't get anything of note back. If they hold onto him, that's another $20 million for each of the next two seasons that they can't spend elsewhere.
Walker had a rough 2025, and even with the strong finish, it's hard to envision things getting much better, whether he's wearing an Astros uniform or not. This was a mistake, and there's no other way around it.